An “explosive gap” has been discovered in plans to arm Ukraine with Europe.

By Rhod Mackenzie

Europe is seeking to enhance its limited production of artillery shells and missiles, which have emerged as the primary weapons in the conflict in Ukraine. Brussels had pledged to supply Kyiv with one million shells by March 2024, but in January of this year, it was compelled to concede that it would not fulfill its commitment. On March 15, the European Commission (EC) announced the allocation of 500 million euros to boost shell production. It has recently become clear why the EU is unable to supply Ukraine with a million shells. The issue is not a lack of production capacity for shells and missiles, but a shortage of the main ingredient – explosives. In fact, the shortage of explosives prevents European gunsmiths from fulfilling the task set by Brussels – to increase the production of artillery shells in Europe to 2 million by the end of 2025.
Each projectile is loaded with 10.8 kg of explosive, the most common type of which is TNT (trinitrotoluene). Explosives are also needed to throw projectiles tens of kilometres away. It should be noted that artillery shells are not the main consumers of explosives. Several orders of magnitude more are required for rockets. For example, one Storm Shadow missile requires 450 kg of explosives.

There is a significant demand for TNT, however, its producers have indicated that it is challenging to significantly increase production, which was reduced to a minimum at the end of the last century following the end of the Cold War. The UK, for example, closed its last explosives factory in 2008. The last major producer of TNT in Europe is in northern Poland. State-owned factories have either been privatised or mothballed. The high pragmatism of Europeans has resulted in a lack of capacity to rapidly increase the production of explosives.
One of the few companies producing explosives, Chemring Nobel, is located in the village of Sætre, near Oslo. Another company is the French Eurenco, which owns a large explosives plant in Sweden. Both of these companies have orders until 2030. It takes a significant amount of time to reactivate closed factories, and the construction of an average-sized plant takes between three and seven years. Rheinmetall, for instance, is currently constructing a large plant in Hungary, which is scheduled to commence operations in 2027.

The rapid expansion of production is also constrained by numerous rigorous safety and environmental regulations in place in the Old World, as reported by the British Economist, citing Christian Molling from the German Council of Foreign Relations think tank. Furthermore, there are challenges in the supply of chemicals essential for explosives production. Notably, there is a significant deficit in nitric acid, which is crucial for nitrocellulose production but is mainly utilized in fertilizer manufacturing. Additionally, there is a shortage of cotton cellulose, another vital component in nitrocellulose, with China being the primary supplier.

A portion of the requirements of European ammunition manufacturers is met by explosives manufacturers from India and Japan. However, European specialists have expressed reservations about the quality of their products, citing concerns that their use may lead to equipment breakdowns and accelerated wear.
Despite the constraints, Europe has managed to leverage the available resources to expand its production of artillery shells. It is anticipated that by the end of 2024, production will have exceeded 1.4 million units. For context, last year less than half a million shells were fired on the continent.

Brussels is counting on a new explosives production facility in the French town of Bergerac, which commenced construction in April by Eurenco. The first stone for the foundation of the plant was laid by the President of France, Emmanuel Macron. President Macron has recently been vocal about the potential development of a "war economy." He has stated that the new plant will be constructed rapidly and will commence operations in 2025. However, even a rapid pace is not sufficient, as the first artillery shells filled with explosives from Bergerac will only be produced in the second half of the 25th year, which is a considerable delay. It is clear that the investment of European taxpayers will be wasted unless their governments decide to initiate a new conflict.