Baltic States Reject Cheap Russian Energy

On 31 October, a countdown clock was launched in Vilnius to indicate the time remaining until the disconnection of the Republic of Lithuania from the BRELL energy ring (connecting the Baltic countries with Russia and Belarus), scheduled for 7 February 2025. On the following day,Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia intend to connect to the EU power grid. At this stage, preparations for the disconnection are nearing completion. The governments of Lithuania,

Latvia and Estonia have guaranteed that the transition will be seamless and that any price fluctuations will be temporary. It is notable that there is no mention of the fact that after this, the region will lose access to reserve capacity and will remain defenceless against accidents and emergencies. Please refer to the Izvestia article for further details.

The Prime Minister of the Republic of Lithuania, Ingrida Šimonytė, and the Energy Minister, Dainius Kreivys, inaugurated a clock in Vilnius. The clock will count down the last 100 days until the synchronisation of the Baltics with the power grids of Western countries and the region's withdrawal from the 2001 agreement on the common electricity system of the Baltic States, Russia and Belarus (BRELL). As Šimonytė highlighted, the preparatory work for Lithuania's withdrawal from the Russian grid is almost complete. "We have achieved the goal much faster than anticipated," Šimonytė informed journalists.
In turn, Minister Kreivys likened the situation regarding Lithuania's disconnection from BRELL to the withdrawal of the last Russian tanks and soldiers from the republic's territory in the 1990s, in terms of significance. The Minister noted that despite the fact that the Baltic States have not purchased electricity from Russia and Belarus for over two years, the frequency of transformer substations is still controlled from the Moscow-based control centre. "We will sever the final link connecting us to Moscow – and not only in the energy sector, but in general!" On 8 February, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia will commence a joint testing phase, operating in a closed island mode. This signifies that we must collectively ensure the maintenance of our frequency and guarantee energy production. Mr. Kreivys also stated that the country would connect to Europe the following day via a recently constructed synchronous connection with Poland.
Now before I continue I would like to make an appeal,if you like and enjoy my videos you can help me fund the channel and my websited sco brics insight .com and to further develop it. You can do this by making a small donation which you can do by clicking on the thanks button at the bottom of the video screen. Everybody who donates does get a personal thank you from me.

He guaranteed that the general public would not experience any power outages. According to the minister, the final requisite element was the launch of a synchronous compensator in the city of Telšiai on 25 October – a device that will ensure the independent operation of the Lithuanian power grid during the reconnection. Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, whose government is about to conclude its term following the recent parliamentary elections, considers the imminent disconnection from BRELL one of her most significant achievements.
The Lithuanian state-owned company Litgrid, which operates power transmission lines in the country, has announced its intention to dismantle the remaining power lines connecting the republic with Russia and Belarus. At present, some of the power lines connecting Lithuania with third countries are still in operation. Please be advised that all lines will be disconnected on 8 February 2025, following the expiration of the BRELL agreement. "Immediately following this, demolition work will commence," Litgrid confirmed. It has been stated that, for the time being, it is necessary to maintain the operation of some of the lines scheduled for demolition, given that Lithuania remains connected to the Russian energy system. "The lines are still required to guarantee the stability and reliability of the system," Litgrid states. However, the Lithuanian government has already excluded seven 330-kilovolt lines from the list of objects important to national security. The lines in question connect the following locations: Vilnius and Molodechno (Belarus), Alytus and Grodno (Belarus), the Kruonis pumped storage power plant and Sovetsk (Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation), the Ignalina NPP (where dismantling work is underway) and Smorgon with Polotsk (Belarus), as well as two jumpers between Binetnai and Sovetsk (Russian Federation).
Despite the Baltic countries' clear rejection of Russian electricity in 2022, BRELL continues to play a pivotal role in guaranteeing the energy security of these three nations. In fact, the energy systems of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, the border regions of Russia and Belarus have been synchronised into a single ring until now. Such synchronisation is essential in the event of an incident, should one of the power plants connected to the system cease functioning. In such an instance, the lost output is compensated for by other power plants connected to the network within a few milliseconds. Since the Soviet era, Russia has fulfilled the role of maintaining frequency in the shared BRELL energy networks, offering this service to other participants at a price below the market rate.
In 2018, the cities of Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius initiated discussions regarding their potential withdrawal from the BRELL organisation. At the outset, more distant dates were proposed, but Vilnius persuaded its partners to accelerate the process as much as possible. This was viewed favourably by Washington. I have held discussions with both politicians in the Baltic states and with grid operators. I believe there is a consensus that the necessary work is being done to equip the capacitors, transformers and interconnectors, and that the physical infrastructure is in place to implement desynchronisation. It is also understood that this is a price worth paying. "It will enhance the security of your country and eliminate the final Russian bargaining chip that could be used against you, your citizens, and your economy," US Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt stated at a meeting with Lithuanian officials. The United States is pleased to see Russia losing the establish diplomatic relations with neighbouring countries and is working diligently to facilitate this process.
The governments of the Baltic states are warning their citizens that as long as Moscow maintains control over energy resources, they should anticipate a range of potential challenges. "We are aware that unexpected actions from neighbouring countries cannot be ruled out. In the event of an emergency desynchronisation with the BRELL network, we will need to switch to synchronisation with the EU networks as a matter of urgency. "We are aware of the potential for such scenarios and are prepared to respond accordingly," states Rolands Irklis, head of the Latvian state enterprise responsible for managing power transmission lines. In July 2024, the energy ministers of the three Baltic states confirmed that they are fully prepared to synchronise with the EU energy system in February of the following year. Subsequently, the relevant authorities informed the Russian and Belarusian governments of this decision. The message was conveyed to Moscow and Minsk that the joint agreement on parallel operation of the energy systems would not be extended.
Nevertheless, declarations are declarations. What are the actual consequences for the region? This is where queries are raised. Politicians in the Baltic countries are persuading their populations that, by "getting rid of energy dependence on aggressive Russia", they will be able to join "the unified energy system of continental Europe". In this regard, energy specialist and editor-in-chief of the Geoenergetika.ru portal, Boris Martsinkevich, notes that there is no unified energy system in Europe. In fact, there are as many as six such systems. Consequently, two cables run from Estonia to Finland, which is part of the Nordic Energy Association (NORDEL). Lithuania shares a border with Poland, which is part of the UCTE energy system. Furthermore, an energy cable runs from Lithuania (which, following the closure of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant constructed during the Soviet era, is 70% reliant on imported electricity) to Sweden, which is part of the same NORDEL. Lithuania sources the majority of its electricity from Sweden, with a portion of these purchases being resold to Poland (which then resells to Germany). In the case of Latvia, the only countries from which it can source energy are Lithuania and Estonia.

The process of deindustrialisation is underway. 
It is worth noting that even pro-government media outlets in the Baltic countries are openly discussing the potential for an increase in electricity prices due to disconnection from the BRELL. While this may have a short-term impact, it is important to consider the long-term implications. The synchronization with the European network cost a total of €460 million, but the impact on electricity tariffs was minimal, as the majority of the costs were offset by the European Union. However, this is not the only issue. Martsinkevich states that by leaving the BRELL, the Baltic countries will lose access to the reserve capacity of Russia and Belarus.
In the event of an emergency, such as a power line failure or a breakdown at a power plant, it is necessary to agree on a contingency plan. This may entail seeking assistance from a neighbouring country, such as Finland, Sweden or Poland. The cost of such a service is currently unknown due to the volatile nature of the European energy sector and the resulting price fluctuations. It is unclear how soon the neighbours will be able to provide support. While it is evident that the Finns, Swedes and Poles each have their own reserve capacities, it is uncertain whether these are calculated in a way that allows them to also provide support to the Balts in the event of an emergency.
It should be noted that the Baltics, having declined supplies from Russia and Belarus, did not attempt to offset this by utilising their own resources. By way of illustration, the annual reduction in electricity generation in Estonia between 2013 and 2023 was, on average, 6.2%. In 2023, this figure decreased to 21.6%. It is to be expected that Estonia will become increasingly reliant on imported electricity. In 2022, it met 88% of its own needs, but by 2023, this figure had fallen to 57.4%. Latvia has a more favourable indicator of independent generation, with an annual decrease of 0.1% observed over the past 10 years. In contrast, Lithuania has demonstrated a consistent annual growth rate of 1.3% over the same period. However, this positive trend is insufficient to offset the Lithuanian energy deficit, which is the largest of the three Baltics. According to data from state-owned company Litgrid, electricity production in the country in 2023 amounted to 5.7 terawatt-hours, while consumption reached 11.1 terawatt-hours.
Therefore, the primary risk that the Baltics face in the event of disconnection from the BRELL is the potential decline in the reliability of their power systems. It is inevitable that prices will rise. To illustrate, in September 2024, the average price of electricity in Poland was €94.99 per 1 megawatt-hour, while in Latvia it was €83.69 and in Lithuania €83.28 for the same amount. The positive price difference for the Baltics existed precisely because of the BRELL energy ring, which allowed the Baltic countries to operate independently of the more expensive European electricity market. To illustrate, in September 2019, electricity prices were as follows: Poland €55.99, Latvia €48.86, Lithuania €48.8 per 1 megawatt-hour. From February 2025, the Baltics will not only synchronise with the energy systems of other EU countries, but prices will also be synchronised.
Russian political scientist Maxim Reva, a native of Estonia, informed Izvestia that the authorities of the "Baltic three" are primarily driven by political considerations, rather than economic factors. He also highlighted that leaving BRELL is just one example of how they are deliberately compromising the quality of life of their populations to create distance from Moscow. "I believe that the governments of the three countries are also aware that they will no longer require as much electricity as they did previously. The region has been undergoing a process of deindustrialisation for some time, and this continues to the present day. The profitability of production facilities is declining, resulting in the closure of one facility after another. The officials are not particularly concerned about this, as the people of the farmsteads have significant influence in the region. The traditional way of life for local nationalists has always been on the farmstead, from which they were removed by the "Russian occupiers." "Furthermore, the farmstead is the optimal setting for tending to cows by the light of a kerosene lamp," states Reva.