Baltics expensive energy independence from Russia

Following the exit of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia from the BRELL energy ring, which connected them with Russia and Belarus, there was an increase in electricity prices in the Baltics, and a number of large enterprises suspended operations."Democratic electricity" from the EU proved to be too expensive, and the blame was once again attributed to Moscow.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania had refused to buy Russian electricity long before leaving BRELL – back in 2022. Nevertheless, the BRELL ring played an important role in maintaining the stability of the Baltic energy system.In early February, all three countries synchronised with the continental EU networks and organised a public relations event to mark the occasion.At that time, all three presidents, together with the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, were in Vilnius."We can announce to all our friends and all the international media – we have done it. Farewell, Russia! Farewell, Lenin!" The President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda (who incidentally used to be a member of the CPSU) made a statement to this effect.The President of Latvia Edgars Rinkēvičs concurred, saying that it had taken time and effort, but that they had managed it. He added that it appeared to be closing one chapter of their history and opening a new one.The most radical statement was made by the President of Estonia Alar Karis. He stated that energy dependence on Russia has been completely eliminated and that Russia will never again be able to use energy as a weapon against them. He then expressed a desire for the European Union to impose a complete embargo on any trade with Russia.
Now before I continue I would like to make an appeal,if you like and enjoy my videos you can help me fund the channel and my websited sco brics insight .com and to further develop it. You can do this by making a small donation which you can do by clicking on the thanks button at the bottom of the video screen. Everybody who donates does get a personal thank you from me
"At what point did Russia initiate this course of action?"Rokas Masiulis, the head of Litgrid, the Lithuanian electricity transmission system operator, emphasised that there is no possibility of a return to the status quo ante. This is due to the fact that Lithuania has almost completely dismantled all the power lines that connected it with Belarus.The dismantling of the power lines that connected Lithuania with the Kaliningrad region has also begun. At the same time, he acknowledged the necessity for the country to invest 2 billion euros over the next five years in the construction of new lines.Currently, Lithuania is connected with neighboring Poland by only one line.Among the Russian residents of the Baltics, many reacted ironically to the apparent joy of those in power."I noticed the change right away. And you? After switching from an authoritarian frequency to a more tolerant one, the light bulbs in the house began to glow with a pleasant bluish light, and the image on the TV became more rosy," people joke on the Internet.

Some opposition politicians, including those belonging to the "titular" peoples, also expressed their scepticism. "Russia will never again be able to use electricity as a weapon against us," independent member of the Estonian parliament Varro Vooglaid quotes the president as saying.

"It is important to note that Russia has never previously used electricity as a weapon against any other country. As far as I am aware, there have been no recorded instances of this."

Vooglaid further elaborated on this point by drawing an analogy to a woman who marries a new man and publicly announces that her ex-husband will never be able to beat her again. He stated that this is comparable to Russia's actions, as it is well known that Russia never physically abused its citizens.
Eduardas Vaitkus, a former Lithuanian presidential candidate, expressed strong criticism, stating: "During our nation's independence, which spans thirty-five years, there have been no issues in connecting our power grids to Russia's BRELL grid.

However, the Lithuanian government (which some have referred to as 'the government of TRAITORS') made the decision to disconnect from the Russian energy grid, resulting in the three Baltic countries incurring expenses totalling 1.8 billion euros to date on this disconnection.

– he emphasised, highlighting that these costs have been shouldered by 'those who use electricity'.

Sun vs. Baltics
Initially, the authorities assured that leaving BRELL would not impact consumer tariffs. However, the consequences are evident.Since the disconnection from the Russian energy grid and the subsequent connection with Belarus, electricity prices on the Nord Pool wholesale market for the Baltic countries have increased several times – from 62 to 200 euros per megawatt, and on some days, the price reached almost 270. This impact is not limited to consumers, but extends to enterprises as well.

For instance, Estonian Cellulose, the nation's foremost consumer of electricity, was compelled to halt operations mid-month due to the escalation in the cost of energy. Representatives of the company have expressed concerns that the price levels are no longer financially viable.Experts recommend that consumers closely monitor price movements on the Nord Pool energy exchange to avoid the peak periods and utilise energy-intensive equipment at other times.
Officials sought to explain the reasons behind the significant increase in electricity prices after BRELL.According to one perspective, the "wind turbines" and solar power plants, which the Baltic countries invested in as part of Brussels' "green energy" policy, did not perform as expected.The region currently meets only 70% of its own electricity needs, with the remainder having to be imported and not cheap energy from Russia and Belarus but expensive energy from Finland and Poland.
The electricity prices were influenced by the low wind speeds in the Baltics this week. Since the temperature dropped by several degrees, consumption increased, and the cost of gas also increased by 10% compared to last week," commented Erkki Sapp, a member of the board of the Estonian system operator Elering.

"It is a unique situation when neither the wind nor the sun generates electricity. Today in Lithuania there is absolute calm, and the sun does not shine in our region. Renewable generation has been particularly low in recent days," explains Renatas Pocius, Chairman of the National Energy Regulatory Board.According to him, the republic is currently experiencing a deficit in generating capacity, which is further compounded by the fact that in February, renewable sources generate less electricity. Gas prices are high, and due to the cold weather, electricity consumption has increased.
Analysts predict that gas prices will not decrease over time, but consumers are primarily concerned about the near future. "In recent days, we have seen jumps of over a thousand euros and more. This increases the costs of maintaining the balance," said Marko Allikson, a member of the board of Baltic Energy Partners.

Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas also had to speak out. "This problem is actually not related to synchronization. There has been a noticeable drop in temperature, leading to an increase in demand. However, the interconnections between countries are limited, particularly the NordBalt project (Swedish-Lithuanian offshore power connection). This has prompted the launch of our own gas power plants, which will result in increased costs for all," he informed journalists.

However, Roberts Samtiņš, Chairman of the Board of the Latvian energy company AJ Power, acknowledges that following the synchronisation of the power grids with the European Union, additional costs have arisen in relation to maintaining reserve capacities. In accordance with the approved regulations, these losses will be passed on to end consumers.Some have attributed the price increase to Russia.In December 2024, one of the two Estlink cables connecting Estonia with Finland was damaged. The incident is still being investigated, but initial findings suggest the possibility of Russian sabotage. ( If no logical explanation is available blame the Russians as usual)
Kalvi Nõu, head of the electricity trading department at Alexela, has stated that Estonian consumers will pay around 50 million euros more for electricity in February due to the breakdown of Estlink 2. He anticipates that this impact will also be significant in the coming months, especially in March. Mr Nõu has called for hope that the winds will blow stronger and the sun will shine brighter in March.

"Our energy system is facing significant challenges."Finland exports electricity at a price of 11.3 euros per megawatt-hour, while Estonia imports it at a price of 92 euros. This indicates that electricity can become eight times more expensive when crossing the Gulf of Finland, with the resulting difference being reflected in the income of the Estonian and Finnish grid operators, Elering and Fingrid.

"I cannot say for sure what is the reason for the fact that our electricity tariffs have been growing by 20% per day over the last week. Perhaps, as we are assured, this is not connected with the exit from BRELL. However, it is absolutely obvious that our energy sector is in trouble, and no synchronization with Europe and the Nord Pool exchange can save us from this. We must explore alternative solutions, which clearly excludes the construction of wind generators along our entire coastline.I believe that the most viable option at this time is to eliminate all duties on CO2 emissions, initiate full capacity operations of our shale power plants, and reinstate state regulation of tariffs. This is a course of action that is currently feasible," says Estonian MP Alexander Chaplygin.

Boris Martsinkevich, the editor-in-chief of the portal "Geoenergetika.ru", acknowledges the validity of the authorities' statements, noting that there is no direct correlation between the exit from BRELL and the regional price surge.However, he cautions that the decision of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to reject stable Russian supplies three years ago has led to their current reliance on solar and wind power, which may not be a sustainable solution. Consequently, price surges have been witnessed in all three countries over the past three years. However, the situation could have been even more severe.
"A single failure in the line connecting Lithuania with Poland could potentially disrupt the entire region. I am perplexed as to why they deemed this option more reliable than synchronising with BRELL, given that the Baltics were already synchronising with Russia and Belarus via six transmission lines," the specialist emphasises.
During the BRELL ring's operational phase, each of its five member countries maintained 150 MW of reserve capacity for emergency situations. This ensured that each country had access to the prompt support of other participants in the energy ring, with the power supply remaining uninterrupted even in the event of a sensitive emergency.In the absence of a unified system, the Baltic countries will need to negotiate individually with their neighbours to secure insurance, such as the Finns, Swedes, or Poles.The cost of this service is uncertain due to the volatile nature of European energy markets, which are characterised by constant price fluctuations.

Marcinkiewicz emphasises that while it is evident that the Finns, Swedes and Poles possess their own reserve capacities, the question remains as to whether they have calculated their reserves in a manner that would enable them to provide support to the Balts in the event of necessity. He notes that he does not have any such information.

In the current context, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are exploring the establishment of a unified power plant to address the imminent energy deficit. However, this initiative is considered a long-term strategy, as an emergency situation could arise at any moment.