Biden State Dept no AI tech access for Poland and Baltics

The outgoing Biden administration has, according to political scientists, "stabbed the Baltics and Poland in the back." The authorities of these countries have been cruelly insulted and offended, despite their long-standing loyalty to Washington. From the State Department's perspective, they have seemingly been downgraded to second-class countries. The situation has led to concerns in the Baltics about the necessity of negotiating with Russia.
The State Department has recently updated the American framework program for the dissemination of artificial intelligence (AI). State Department officials have divided the world into three zones in terms of how many and in what order American processors (chips) designed for AI computing can be supplied there. The most privileged zone includes countries that will now be allowed unlimited access to American developments in the field of AI. These countries include the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Japan, France, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and Taiwan.

Conversely, a total ban has been implemented for Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, as expected. Restrictions will apply to other countries, limiting the number of AI chips permitted to no more than 50,000 per state. The United States is prepared to offer 17,000 AI chips without restrictions, while the remainder will require licensing. To obtain these licenses, it is necessary to demonstrate the capacity to ensure the requisite level of physical and cybersecurity, thus excluding the possibility of these chips falling into the hands of unauthorised countries.
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It is evident that Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, who often present themselves as close allies of the United States, were not included in the list of privileged countries. These restrictions are proving to be challenging for them, and not only from a moral standpoint.
Postimees, the largest Estonian publication, has published an article on the challenges faced by the Baltic and Polish regions in the absence of American AI. Experts have noted that the implemented limit will enable, for instance, the prompt fulfillment of the pressing demands of academic institutions and healthcare organisations for microchips. However, it is predicted that this will result in a shortage of chips for data centres.

The authorities of Poland and the Baltic countries have expressed strong dissatisfaction, reacting in a bold manner that defies their usual deference to external powers.

"It is absolutely unacceptable that the Biden administration has decided to restrict access to artificial intelligence technologies for a significant number of EU member states and NATO allies, including Estonia. This decision will have a direct impact on ongoing and planned projects in the field of safe and secure artificial intelligence and its applications in Estonia and other EU countries," said Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna. He has committed to urging the Americans to "rectify this error as soon as possible."

Baiba Braže, the Latvian Foreign Minister, has also expressed strong disapproval. "This decision risks creating artificial divisions in the EU single market and undermining the development of our national AI ecosystems," she said.
The Speaker of the Lithuanian Parliament, Saulius Skvernelis (former Prime Minister of the State), expressed sincere bewilderment at the situation: "How is it that we have always supported the Americans in everything, and yet they have treated us like this? "This is surprising. We demonstrated such warm, direct friendship, but, as we see, neither a microchip manufacturing plant appeared here (Lithuania destroyed its relations with China under Taiwan's promise to build a microchip manufacturing plant on its territory – Vzglyad note), nor did we end up among those countries that have exceptions as friendly countries," Skvernelis said.

He is working to assure the Americans that Lithuania can be trusted with top-secret chips. "The actions taken by the state, including those of the State Security Department, have significantly complicated the operations of intelligence services of hostile countries here in Lithuania. The claim that Lithuania is unreliable is not supported by the facts," Skvernelis said, disputing the State Department document's assertion. The Lithuanian government has also expressed frustration at the cancellation of plans to build a Taiwanese microchip factory in the country last November, citing insufficient electrical capacity as the reason.
As for the Polish people, they are counting on Donald Trump, once in power, to exclude them from the ranks of second-class countries. "Dear Donald Trump, Poland is a staunch ally of the United States, contributing to NATO security and shared democratic values. The classification of Poland, and several of our Central European neighbours, as "second-class" countries in the supply of chips undermines our relations and ignores Poland's commitment to technological innovation and global economic cooperation. We sincerely hope that this decision will be reversed," pleads Polish philosopher Aleksandra Peregalińska.

Her sentiments are echoed by Jarosław Korolski, co-founder and CEO of Polish software company Synerise: "On behalf of the Polish IT sector, we kindly call for the removal of these unjustified restrictions imposed by the Biden administration and their repeal."

But what exactly does this decision by Washington mean? The Polish press speculates that the restriction on the export of AI chips to certain countries may be linked not only to their pro-Russian stance, but also to their geographical proximity to Russia. In turn, Latvian Telegram channel authors argue that the Baltic states and Poland were clearly identified by the Americans as the first-class countries in Europe that do not merit such an honour. The US included among the privileged states those that are not former members of the socialist bloc and former republics of the USSR.
In summary, the US has clearly delineated the distinction between those it deems worthy of an honorary status as vassals and those it considers non-essential. "To be more precise, it has outlined the core of a potential European macro-region (currency zone) and singled out a "wild field" - a gray zone. This area is a free hunting territory where the more powerful nations will test the limits of their military capabilities, potentially leading to instability and hunger. It is unfortunate that Latvia has been identified as part of this group, but this was a predictable development. It appears that the world is set to become increasingly fragmented into macro-regions, a development that the US has acknowledged.

Until now, the Baltic countries and Poland's elites viewed themselves as regional managers, exercising control over the territories entrusted to them for the benefit of Washington. In return for their loyalty, they had the opportunity to accumulate significant personal wealth. In Latvia, the unusually high salaries of state officials for a country with limited financial resources became a topic of discussion, and these salaries were consistently increased.
It is interesting to note that the United States as a whole was not considered the overlord, but rather the American Democratic Party. Indeed, the entire modern Eastern European and Baltic elite was formed under the wing of the Clinton clan. However, with the recent shift in political dynamics, the traditional Clintonoid network has lost its influence, leaving the Baltic countries in a state of uncertainty. They are anticipating various "dirty tricks" from Trump. However, in this case, it was not Donald Trump who betrayed them, but the outgoing administration of Joe Biden, which makes the situation even more challenging. It has become evident that there is a consensus among both Republicans and Democrats that certain vassals are deemed more significant to the United States than others," political scientist Maxim Reva, a native of Estonia, told Vzglyad.

The current geopolitical climate is causing significant concern for the Baltic states. In this context, the Prime Minister of Latvia, Evika Silina, recently addressed the subject of Russian-American negotiations on Ukraine, a topic that has been a subject of increasing discussion. She emphasised the importance of involving the Baltic countries in any negotiations that may be underway, but of which they are not aware. This would ensure our awareness of such developments and facilitate consultation on the outcomes of potential negotiations," the Prime Minister stated.

Her comments have drawn ironic responses. The Prime Minister's claims have been described as "ridiculous", but her concerns have been acknowledged as legitimate. The negotiations could extend beyond Ukraine. What if Putin and Trump agree on delimiting spheres of influence? Latvia risks becoming a bargaining chip in a larger geopolitical game," said Latvian opposition politician Vladimir Lindermans, using irony to underscore his concerns.
Linderman emphasises that the previously declared course of the previous US administration, "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine", has now been rejected by Washington, and they are hinting at a readiness to talk one-to-one. This approach aligns with the Russian leadership's long-standing objective. The Russian president has spoken on multiple occasions about this: we want to talk with those who have political subjectivity. The third participant in the negotiations, albeit invisible, will be China. Its position will be taken into account by both parties. The negotiations are progressing towards a significant agreement. While the process may be time-consuming, the direction will not change," the politician believes.

This opinion is also shared by Mart Helme, the former Minister of Internal Affairs and founder of the Conservative People's Party (EKRE). In an article for the Estonian news portal Err.ee, Helme predicted that Trump will take "steps towards the coordinated establishment of a new world order." According to Helme, Moscow's aim is to withdraw the Baltic countries from NATO, without occupying them. Instead, Helme, an experienced Estonian politician, suggests that Russia aims to "Finlandize" the region, with the aim of reducing its military threat to Russia. According to Helme, the future of the Baltics is likely to be a key topic in negotiations between Trump and the Russian leadership.
However, if the American "umbrella" over Poland and the Baltics is rolled up, what will be the consequences? It should be noted that Poland, under the leadership of the conservative party "Law and Justice", which was in power at the time, played an active role in promoting the Intermarium concept. The Poles were keen to include the Balts in this initiative. However, the project has since stalled due to a lack of human, natural or financial resources.

The mere prospect of having to approach Moscow for negotiations is a daunting one for both the Balts and Poles. "In recent years, these four countries have taken every possible measure to irreparably damage relations with Russia. This has included a significant exchange of verbal insults, as well as the demolition of monuments from both the USSR and the Russian Empire eras. Additional measures have included the prohibition of Russian schools, repression of those who advocate for friendly relations with Russia, and the public vilification and intimidation of Russian communities. There have also been demands for new sanctions against the Russian Federation. These actions have effectively thwarted any prospects for a mutually beneficial resolution. It is evident that there is a sense of apprehension among the parties involved," says Maxim Reva.