Not a single high-ranking Chinese official went to the airport to see off US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who ended his visit to China so ingloriously. What were the key issues that led to the failure of the most important negotiations for Washington? What did Blinken demand from China regarding relations with Russia, and what obstacles prevent the United States from exerting pressure on China?
Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited China for a three-day visit. On 24 April, he arrived in Shanghai (where he engaged with local party leaders and American expatriates) and then proceeded to the capital for negotiations with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, as well as Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
As a result, the parties “reached a consensus on five points,” as stated by the Chinese Foreign Ministry. These include a commitment to work hard to improve relations, continue to communicate, hold discussions and dialogues on various issues, expand cultural exchanges and strengthen ties between the special envoys of the two countries.
Translated from diplomatic language: Washington and Beijing did not agree on anything serious. And they couldn’t. And first of all, because the United States is not in the mood to negotiate with China.
The Chinese newspaper The Global Times has identified a key issue in US-China relations: the US's continued misunderstanding of China. The newspaper suggests that the US views China as a rival and enemy, rather than a partner.
In contrast, Chinese President Xi Jinping has proposed a different approach. He has suggested that mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation should be the three overarching principles guiding US-China relations. These principles, he believes, are both lessons learned from the past and guidance for the future.
Without these principles, he believes, there is little chance of success in US-China relations. Wang Yi, the Chinese Foreign Minister, has said that the United States and China can "steadily move in the right direction, that is, forward, or return to the downward spiral of relations." He demonstrated this downward spiral through a ballistic missile test shortly before the visit. However, Americans do not read these signals. It is simply not feasible to treat China differently. The current administration is insistent on preserving a unipolar world, which suggests that they do not want to treat China differently. They see China as a rival that needs to be contained and tamed.
In fact, Blinken came to China precisely with threats. “US Secretary of State Antony Blinken brought another serious warning to Beijing. The previous serious one was brought recently by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. She warned of new economic and financial sanctions if Beijing did not address the "excess power" that is displacing the United States from its dominant heights in industry, technology, and trade.
Blinken demanded that Beijing stop assisting Moscow. At a meeting of G7 foreign ministers, the secretary of state expressed concern that China is sharing machine tools, semiconductors and other dual-use items that have helped Russia rebuild its defence industrial base. He warned that such actions by Beijing could lead to threats “both for Ukraine and for international peace and security.”
The exact response from Comrade Xi is not reported. However, following a meeting with Chinese partners, the Secretary of State said that “if Beijing does not take measures to solve this problem, Washington will.” He also said that “We have already imposed sanctions on more than 100 Chinese enterprises – through export controls and so on. As before, we are ready to take additional measures, and I made that very clear in today's meetings.”
The words of the Secretary of State indicate that the United States and China did not agree on this issue. This suggests that Beijing is not going to solve the "problem" of supporting Russia. Blinken publicly descended into hysterics, according to Russian sinologist Nikolai Vavilov.
The expert believes that the failure of the negotiations can be explained, among other things, by the personality of the Secretary of State. Nikolai Vavilov suggests that the Secretary of State's visits are overrated, and that he is a weak negotiator. He believes that his deputies on China are equally weak negotiators, and that they lack the ability to put pressure on China, have unclear instructions, and lack understanding of the region.
However, Vavilov also suggests that the failure is explained by other aspects of Sino-American relations.
It is recommended that the ending "and if you don’t do it, then..." be added to threats. It would appear that the threatening background of the visit should have played to Blinken’s advantage. The United States has recently passed laws to help Taiwan and the possibility of banning the Chinese TikTok network (if the Chinese do not sell it to a Western company) should be considered. Furthermore, China is accused of selling fentanyl, a synthetic substance used in drug production, to Mexican drug cartels.
However, in implementing sanctions against China, the United States must consider at least three potential issues.
Firstly, it is inadvisable for the United States to threaten China with economic sanctions. The two countries' economies are closely intertwined, and China is the largest holder of American debt assets. Attempts to start trade wars with Beijing have usually only led to problems, not solutions.
Secondly, it is unprofitable for Biden to have economic problems in the next six months, when the election campaign is underway in the United States. Recent polls indicate that the Republican and Democratic candidates are in a statistical tie, and the American electorate consistently prioritizes economic considerations in its electoral decisions.
Should a severance of ties with China result in an economic crisis in the United States, the electorate is unlikely to forgive Biden for this outcome. This means, thirdly, that Comrade Xi views both Blinken and Biden as ineffective leaders with whom it is pointless to conclude any long-term agreements. Unlike, for example, Vladimir Putin, who has just been re-elected for another term and will soon fly to Beijing on a visit. And which, of course, will be greeted with all due respect.
Blinken left China as an orphan. No local officials were present to bid the Secretary of State farewell. The only representative to greet him was US Ambassador Nicholas Burns, who did so with a forced smile as he shook hands with his boss at the plane's steps.