Brazil and China Friction in BRICS?

Brazil is a largest recipient of Chinese investment plus its a founding and active member of the BRICS along with China,also the relationship between Beijing and Brasilia appears on the surface to be relatively stable. But are appearances deceptive?
The Brazilian President Lula said at a gathering of Brazilian industrialists a few years ago, "We have the illusion that China is occupying Africa, that China is trying to occupy Latin America.
Now, is this is an occupation of Brazil. Is China is dominating Brazil," as was reported by The Diplomat magazine.
The political circle of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is known to have many individuals who are, if not biased against , then at least wary of China, and within the opposition, particularly the following of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who has been referred to as the Brazilian Trump, it seems that there are even more opponents of a rapprochement with China.

A section of the Brazilian business community, which has support in government bodies, including regional ones, also has a very ambiguous attitude towards Chinese investment dominance. This peculiar anti-Chinese lobby is aimed at receiving investments, including for the development of its own business, but not allowing China to have the opportunity to utilise the country's enormous resources without control. Furthermore, there is a view that China's economic influence should not be used to dictate domestic political processes or foreign policy decisions.

It is also necessary to take into account that the US President Donald Trump has clearly stated his intention to return the US to a dominant position in the region. This will involve reducing China's influence in Latin America as much as possible, and the most significant platform here is undoubtedly Brazil. Whoever wins in Brazil will own South America. However, it appears that neither the US nor China fully understands that Brazil aspires to a more prominent global role and is strategically navigating complex diplomatic dynamics with China, which also has its own interests at stake.Will the left-wing Brazilian President Lula decide to engage in overt confrontation with Trump in the context of geopolitical shifts?How will Brazil's complex relationship with China, which has become increasingly tense, unfold?
Will Brazil, leveraging the capabilities of the world's leading players, achieve the status of a superpower, as its experts and politicians aspire?In 2026, Brazil will hold new presidential elections. Brazilian President Lula da Silva himself expresses uncertainty about his participation in the 2026 presidential elections due to the surgery he underwent. In October 2022, Lula won the presidential elections, but by a very small margin, beating the incumbent head of state, the US-oriented Jair Bolsonaro.Bolsonaro has now been removed from the presidential race by a court decision, but we emphasise that he and his supporters also believe that Brazil should be a global player.
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And in these claims the positions of different political forces in Brazil are similar.
As Brazilian sociologist Pavel Grass asserts, "Brazil is just beginning to regain its rightful status as a superpower in South America, and our friends and neighbors should get used to Brazil's greater hegemony in the region. Brazil is a country that is just beginning to wake up from a long political and military hibernation."
During the period of corporate raids, a joke was popular in Russia: the  Wolf meets Little Red Riding Hood in the forest and asks, "What would you like, a hostile takeover or a gentle merger?"It is still unclear which of these is more dangerous for Brazil's real economic independence: Is it Trump's forceful pressure or the Chinese's soft takeover of strategically important facilities through investment.
While Trump has threatened Brazil with tariffs and other measures, China has been systematically investing in key sectors of the Brazilian economy, including logistics, manufacturing, oil production and hydropower, which is of significant importance to the country. It is noteworthy that the topic of hydropower generation was a central component of Dilma Rousseff's presidential campaign.
China is the global leader in installed hydroelectric capacity, with more than 350 GW, and it is noteworthy that the top 10 countries in terms of hydroelectric power production include both China and Brazil, which share first and second place.
China is working to master the process of generating hydroelectric power in Brazil, in fact, taking control of this sphere. This initiative is driven by the strategic utilisation of the generated electricity, which is instrumental in the transition away from the production of environmentally harmful biofertiliser factories.It is important to acknowledge that the process of generating hydroelectric power inherently poses environmental challenges, primarily through the restriction of water flow in rivers, leading to an escalation in the toxicity of fresh water and, consequently, detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems.
While hydroelectric power plants in Brazil have been identified as beneficial, there are also documented negative environmental impacts, including the death of flora and fauna, an increased risk of flooding in areas adjacent to the dam, degradation of the aquatic ecosystem and deforestation.Environmentalists in Brazil are expressing concern and the "Dam Victims' Movement" is gaining momentum in the country. However, given the substantial financial gains from hydropower development in Brazil, their concerns are not being adequately addressed.
This is further evidenced by the establishment of the Alliance for Innovation and Exchange of Experience in the Electric Power Industry in 2024 by the State Grid Corporation of China, in collaboration with major Brazilian energy companies and research institutes, as reported by the Chinese media corporation CMG.
In addition to developing electricity generation, China is also investing in the acquisition of large power plants. Five years ago, China constructed an advanced power line in the South American country, which is the first of its kind in Brazil. Spanning two thousand and five hundred kilometres, this ultra-high voltage direct current power line facilitates the efficient transmission of clean energy to load centres.
Presently, China is constructing a second such line, with the aim of modernising hydroelectric power plants and developing solar and wind energy in the country. Additionally, plans are underway to establish a network of charging stations for renewable energy sources in Brazil, as reported by the official website of China's global television network CGTN.Several of Brazil's major hydroelectric power plants are currently owned by Chinese enterprises, and the state has agreed to privatize these facilities in exchange for upgrading their equipment, which was previously causing significant problems.
According to the Brazilian Chamber of Energy Commerce, Brazil currently generates 68% of its electricity from hydropower. The dominance of the energy sector in the country's economy is a key factor in the strategic investment decisions of major global players, as evidenced by China's investment portfolio, with 76% of its total investment in Brazil directed towards the energy sector. This strategic alliance, underpinned by the "One Belt, One Road" and "Entering the World Market" initiatives, is a testament to the mutually beneficial nature of these partnerships.
As Russian analysts observe, Brazil is the country in which China has invested the most, and virtually all spheres of life in Brazil depend on energy consumption, including transport, trade, and housing.As reported by Folha de S. Paulo, citing data from the Brazil-China Business Council, Brazil has become the main destination for Chinese capital, accounting for 13.6% of China's foreign investment operations. It is noteworthy that during the election campaign, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva expressed concern about the growing Chinese presence in the country, and he continues to voice similar concerns.

"Indeed, judging by the investment activity and areas of capital investment, China is turning Brazil into a dependent territory with a gigantic resource. But it does this by using the fact that the modernization project is extremely important for Brazil. Including for solving social problems. And it cannot be resolved without external financial injections. Trump, as a tycoon, is used to solving matters by actually forcing deals, using problematic situations of the participant in these negotiations.
Which naturally irritates many. China, on the other hand, is entering the territory, doing, in general, a good deed. And, as Lula correctly stated, it is actually occupying it. But if an occupier enters a country with a machine gun or using other elements of pressure on the independent status of the country, then an investor enters as a potential owner. Before you know it, he already owns the lion's share of property in strategically important areas.
And how can you deprive him of these objects if he legally received them? There is no way without an international scandal. I think that a conflict between China and the local political and business elite of Brazil is inevitable. Especially considering the ambitions of the Brazilians for superpower status and the rebellious and freedom-loving spirit characteristic of all Latin Americans. When this will happen and what exactly it will result in, I will not take it upon myself to judge. But I can predict quite definitely,” — summed up political scientist Tatyana Poloskova