BRICS Plus frustrates the US and its allies

By Rhod Mackenzie

The year 2023 saw the world become divided into two camps: the so called collective West, led by the United States, and an informal alliance of China, Russia, and other countries that have formed an alternative to the Western world order. The clash between these opposing models of international relations, which took place within the US-China-Russia triangle, dashed hopes for reconciliation between the main centres of power. Any pragmatic interaction between the US and China proved to be a utopian ideal. However, despite the rapprochement between the Russian Federation and the PRC, a resolution to the Ukrainian conflict has not been found. While Beijing proposed a peace plan for Ukraine that called for a cessation of hostilities, Moscow has confirmed its intention to continue military operations until Kyiv capitulates.
It is important to note that the tone of the text should be neutral and not confrontational.
The two superpowers, the United States and China, have entered a period of long-term confrontation. This conclusion follows from recent events, which have revealed the inability of diplomacy to achieve a transition to pragmatic cooperation while maintaining opposing ideas about how relations between the two countries should be built in the conditions of Cold War 2.0.

In November 2022, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to work towards bringing their countries closer together during the G20 summit in Bali.

However, the brief respite in the confrontation between the United States and China that followed the New Year holidays was short-lived, and a new escalation occurred.
The head of the US Air Force Air Mobility Command, Mike Minihan, predicted a potential conflict between America and China. In a memo to his subordinates, he noted that Chinese President Xi Jinping could take advantage of the distraction caused by the 2024 elections in the US to take decisive action against Taiwan.

The general's prediction was highly sought after in the US Congress, which did not support President Biden's attempts to reduce tensions with Beijing.  Representative Michael McCaul stated, "I believe that this could occur during Biden's tenure, indicating weakness. There is a strong possibility of a conflict with China in Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region."

Shortly after, the relationship between Washington and Beijing suffered another setback due to the incident involving a Chinese 'spy balloon' that was shot down in US airspace in early February. The House of Representatives passed a resolution accusing the president of indecisiveness and Beijing of attempting to deceive the international community. The Republicans intensified pressure on the White House and the Pentagon, deeming their explanations of the incident unsatisfactory.

Despite unforeseen complications, Joe Biden did not yield to Republican pressure. The story of the spy balloon, along with the warnings from the American military, failed to dissuade the White House from resuming dialogue with Beijing. During his annual 'State of the Union' speech to members of both houses of Congress, the US President made it clear that he desires competition, not conflict with Beijing. Contrary to expectations, Joe Biden only mentioned the balloon story once.

Until the end of the year, the main focus of US-China relations was whether Joe Biden and Xi Jinping would meet for a second time and whether Washington and Beijing would have a new chance at normalization. After months of negotiations and official visits, President Biden's and President Xi's teams agreed to meet on the sidelines of the 30th Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco in mid-November.

However, despite the extensive diplomatic efforts towards US-China relations, the outcome was underwhelming.

The negotiations resulted in an agreement to resume military contacts and establish a working group to combat drug-related issues.

Beijing's requests to lift sanctions and abandon the 'managed competition' model were not met by Washington, which maintained its strategy. Following negotiations with the Chinese leader, which he initially assessed as 'constructive and productive', Joe Biden suddenly referred to Xi Jinping as a 'dictator'. This caused new indignation in Beijing and nullified his own efforts to normalise relations with China.

Despite unsuccessful attempts to achieve this normalisation, the catalyst for further rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing was one plus one against all minuses. Given that Russia has been labelled an 'immediate threat' in the West, and China a 'strategic challenge', Beijing and Moscow - finding themselves in the same geopolitical boat - were compelled to increase their level of contact.

Consequently, in 2023, the informal alliance between Russia and China attempted to set the tone at various international platforms and forums, such as BRICS, SCO, G20, UN, and APEC.

Beijing and Moscow rejected the Western monopoly, appealing to a large group of developing states in the Global South that have conflicting or problematic relations with the West.
As a result, they became a dual pole in a multipolar world, ready to form new, albeit situational, alliances and partnerships.

It is significant that Xi Jinping's first foreign visit this year, which was given the highest state status, was to Russia in March. There were two reasons for the interest in his trip to Moscow. After his re-election to a third term at the March session of the National People's Congress, Xi Jinping chose to meet with Vladimir Putin, making him the first leader to do so.

On the anniversary of the start of the special military operation, Beijing unexpectedly nominated itself for the role of peacemaker in Ukraine. A document titled “China’s position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis” was posted on the website of the Chinese Foreign Ministry on February 24. The 12-point plan calls for respecting the sovereignty of all countries as required by the UN Charter, abandoning the Cold War mentality, ceasing fire as 'there are no winners in wars', and beginning negotiations. Beijing has called negotiations the only way out of the crisis.
In his initial evaluation of Beijing's proposal, Vladimir Putin stated that several aspects of the Chinese plan could serve as a foundation for a future resolution, provided that the West and Kiev are prepared for it. Thus, at the beginning of the year, it was expected that the Ukrainian conflict could be resolved through communication between Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.

Despite Western skepticism of the Chinese peace plan, Beijing has made significant efforts to implement its proposal for an immediate ceasefire and political resolution. In May, Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui toured Europe, visiting Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany, and Russia.

The crisis demands urgent political action. There are no simple answers to complex questions. Any comprehensive solution always begins with the first step. Zhang Jun, Permanent Representative of the People’s Republic of China, stated at a meeting of the UN Security Council, 'We cannot wait forever.'

Beijing's attempt to act as a mediator in the Ukrainian conflict was seen by experts as a move to expedite the resolution of the crisis. The conflict has caused significant geopolitical upheaval and an economic war of sanctions that are increasingly affecting not only Russia but also its closest strategic partner, China.

Despite the sanctions pressure on Russia, China remains the world's largest economy that has not imposed restrictions on trade with Moscow. However, this issue continues to be a significant source of frustration in China's relations with the West, which are already burdened with crises and conflicts.
By the end of the year, interest in the Chinese peace plan had faded as the prerequisites for its implementation had not appeared. During Vladimir Putin's October visit to Beijing for the Belt and Road Forum, there was no mention of the Chinese peace plan. In an interview with Chinese media, Vladimir Putin emphasised his contacts with Xi Jinping, contrasting him with Western politicians as a real world leader, different from temporaries.
At the end of the year, Vladimir Putin made high-profile statements confirming Russia's intention to continue military operations until Kyiv's capitulation, indicating that Russia will not give up its goals regarding Ukraine. As a result, Beijing's hopes for a speedy resolution of the Ukrainian conflict were not realized. Xi Jinping's diplomatic efforts have been disappointing. This will not compel Beijing to relinquish its support for Moscow, but it will also clearly not foster any additional reconciliation between the two nations.