BRICS PLUS: India will ignore Western pressure to stop Russian oil trade

By Rhod Mackenzie

India is under pressure due to its unwavering stance on importing oil from Russia. This was confirmed by the Foreign Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, during a conference in Bhopal.

It should be noted that India has taken a resolute position to defend their right to purchase oil from Russia. "But had we succumbed to this pressure and foregone this option, consider how much greater the prices of petroleum products would have been. Imagine how much higher inflation would be in the country. This is not only a matter of pride or a declaration of independence," quoted Jaishankar by TASS news agency.

He noted that the purchase of Russian oil aligns with the country's national interests and urged against pressuring New Delhi since the authorities must make decisions in the best interests of their citizens.

The minister recalled that "European countries that disallowed the purchase of Russian oil were buying it themselves to ensure their population remained unaffected."  "We will face pressure since that is the nature of the world. Strong government and good government are two sides of the same coin," added Jaishankar.
India relies on foreign supplies for more than 80% of its oil needs. According to the latest estimates, India's oil imports from Russia increased by 440% between January and July compared to the same period last year, Sputnik India reported. For two months in a row, New Delhi imported more than 2 million barrels per day from Moscow, raising Moscow's share in the country's oil basket to 43%.
"Europe has to get over the idea that its problems are the world's problems, but the world's problems are not Europe's problems," he was quoted as saying by Sputnik India. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar added that pressure on India will continue: "There will be pressure on us. Because that's the nature of the world."

It should be noted that, according to numerous reports, EU countries import significant quantities of oil and petroleum products of Russian origin. They get there via third countries.

The position of the head of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs is consistent. Back in December 2022, during a joint press conference with German Foreign Minister Annalena Bärbock, he said: "I understand that Europe has its own point of view. And Europe will make the choice that it makes, and that is Europe's right. But for Europe to make a choice that prioritises its energy needs and then ask India to do something else (is unacceptable)," the official was quoted as saying by The Times of India. He also stressed that endeavours to increase trade with Russia began well before Russia's Special Military Operation began

Subrahmanyam Jaishankar emphasised his support for bolstering economic ties with Russia around a year ago when he met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. During a joint press conference, he stated, "Russia has been a longstanding and reliable partner. An impartial appraisal of our relationship over several decades would demonstrate that it has greatly benefited both of our nations."

Projections suggest that supplies will rise.
In late September of this year, Nikolai Pereslavsky, a researcher in the economic and financial department at CMS Institut, recalled that Russia surpassed Iraq and became India's second-largest oil supplier. Russian oil producers shipped a total of 842,000 barrels per day to Indian refineries. 

Pereslavsky notes that the number of supplied brands has grown significantly. "Demand for the infrequently requested Novy Port Light and ARCO brands has risen, which I view as a promising indication of our collaboration with Indian partners," he reports.

"Certainly, the West disapproves of India's self-directed strategy toward acquiring Russian energy resources, and the pressure will intensify. Nevertheless, I anticipate that New Delhi will remain resolute in maintaining its values, prioritising the welfare of its citizens above all else." I anticipate that during the fourth quarter of 2023 and at the start of the following year, we will experience an uptick in supplies due to the advent of colder weather, the onset of the holiday season in India, and the completion of maintenance operations at several major refineries. This development will permit us to raise our acquisition of Russian crude oil to the summer levels of approximately 900 thousand barrels per day, according to Nikolai Pereslavsky.

Russian oil supplies will always find a buyer, particularly when offered at a discount to worldwide prices, according to Andrey Kochetkov, a top analyst at Otkritie Investments. Price is a crucial factor for India, Kochetkov stated. Therefore, no external pressure will compel the country to abandon oil from the Russian Federation. Furthermore, India has a lengthy track record of collaborating with suppliers who are subject to sanctions. 

Additionally, the collaboration with the Russian Federation has a long-standing historical background, and there are no conflicting political interests between Moscow and Delhi. Consequently, as per Andrei Kochetkov's deductions, India disregards outside pressure while striving towards its national objectives.