Over the last two years Russia's trade has moved away from Europe and now directly to Asia and particularly towards its BRICS partners.
The reorientation towards BRICS has an impact on all Russian trade, according to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, The Ministry had previously observed that the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions had resulted in an increase in the proportion of trade turnover with the Russian Federation accounted for by the union's countries. The Ministry of Industry and Trade reports that trade with the BRICS countries grew by 6.3% in the first five months, with positive dynamics expected for the entire year.It is now obvious that Russia's cooperation with the union's members is evolving and what innovations are on the horizon
The reorientation towards the BRICS countries affects all aspects of Russian trade in one way or another, accordingf the Minister of Economic Development,
"In the current circumstances, we can no longer rely on Western markets even for those goods that can still be traded. Therefore, the reorientation of trade to the BRICS countries, regardless of the size of their economies, is a natural process. Of course, this process is not fast," the ministry noted.
It is evident that the significant realignment of our commodity flows, encompassing export and import deliveries, has exerted a discernible influence. We are pleased to report that our BRICS colleagues have provided invaluable support, enabling us to achieve a record 28% last year. "It is evident that the foundation has expanded considerably, yet the favourable trajectory persists," the ministry stated.
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In value terms, the most significant growth in exports is to Asia, according to Dmitry Kulikov, director of the sovereign and regional ratings group at ACRA, In particular, in the first half of 2024, the Federal Customs Service reports an increase of $12 billion compared to 2023, while the total value of exports in all directions remained almost unchanged.
"These are primarily mineral raw materials and their processed products, but if we examine the data from 2021 onwards, we can see an increase in the share of almost all major categories, both in exports and imports,
The Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) has previously indicated its belief that the trade turnover between Russia and China could potentially be doubled by 2030, provided that the remaining obstacles to mutual settlements between banks in the two countries are eliminated. The mutial trade volume between Russia and China will be over $250 billion in 2024
Following a meeting between Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Li Qiang, the two parties signed an investment cooperation plan.
There has been a notable increase in trade volume. However, the issue of payments remains unresolved, and therefore Western restrictions will have virtually no effect on trade turnover.
To enhance cooperation, the BRICS countries will progressively unify trade regulations, with members initiating projects with more straightforward implementation.
Now as part of its BRICS trade focus Russia is pursuing a policy of increasing settlements in national currencies. The Central Bank reports that the share of the ruble in payments for exports to Europe has reached a historical maximum of 67%. In its dealings with Asia and Africa, Russia is already using national currencies from both countries for 80% and 84% of transactions, respectively.
Consequently, the importance of the dollar and the euro is diminishing on a global scale, not only in trade with the Russian Federation but also in the global settlement structure as a whole.
The proportion of currencies from unfriendly countries in Russia's settlements with Europe for exports fell to 21.6% in July, according to data from the Central Bank. This represents the lowest figure recorded throughout the entire observation period, which commenced in January 2019. Concurrently, the proportion of transactions conducted in rubles is increasing. In July, this figure reached a record high of 66.7%. The remaining 11.7% is accounted for by other currencies.Have a look at the char to see the figures here
According to Central Bank data, settlements for Russia's exports in national currencies are also increasing with key partners. In particular, in July, their share in settlements with Asia grew to 84%. Of these, 33% were in the Russian ruble, with a further 51% in other currencies, including the yuan and rupees.
Dmitry Birichevsky, Director of Economic Cooperation at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, noted that key partners account for approximately 90% of settlements in trade.
Europe and Asia have practically swapped places in terms of trade turnover with Russia. The former's share has dropped to 12%, while the latter's has grown to 66%. At the same time, China alone accounts for almost a third of Russia's foreign trade. In addition to energy resources, agricultural products – grain, meat, fish, as well as chemical products, especially mineral fertilisers – are showing significant growth in supplies to Asian countries.
Western countries have introduced an increasing number of sanctions against Russia, which has resulted in the euro and the dollar becoming less acceptable for Russian companies.
In light of the potential for secondary sanctions, a number of foreign banks have begun to refuse to accept payments in dollars from the Russian Federation. This has led to further difficulties in 2024.
Another factor contributing to the high proportion of settlements in national currencies directly with Europe is the requirement for unfriendly countries to pay for gas in rubles.
The largest export volumes from Russia to Europe are in the energy sector, according to Antonina Levashenko, head of the Russian Competence Center. In January 2023, for instance, Russia supplied $587 million worth of natural gas to Austria, $504 million to Hungary, and $329 million to France.
In total, over the first five months of 2024, Russia exported $15.7 billion worth of products to the European Union, with the majority comprising oil, gas, metals and fertilisers.
Eurostat data shows that European exports to Russia fell by over 50% in the second quarter of this year. Furthermore, deliveries from Russia decreased by 87%. The trade turnover between the Russian Federation and the European Union reached its lowest point since September 1999 in June, amounting to €4.9 billion.
There is a growing preference for Russia's partners to make payments in national currencies in international transactions. The use of digital currencies from national banks, cryptocurrency (stablecoins), and a single currency for the BRICS+ countries is also being considered. The creation of this currency is currently being actively discussed.
The use of national currencies in mutual settlements allows for the creation of a fairer world where all countries have equal opportunities for development.
The yuan already accounts for 75% of all Russian-Chinese trade turnover. It is convenient for the Russian Federation to conduct export payments not only in rubles, but also in the PRC currency, in order to immediately pay for import expenses. In addition to oil and gas, Russia supplies China with coal, copper, precious metal ores and aluminium.
It is anticipated that Russia's trade turnover with African countries will reach $50–60 billion by 2030, up from $24.5 billion in 2020.
Wheat and meslin (a mixture of wheat and rye) account for approximately a quarter of Russian exports to the African market, while oil and oil products represent a similar proportion.
So there you have it Russia is focused on Asia and the Globals South leaving the EU to drown in its own hubris,hypocrisy and economic misery.