The BRICS group are building a transportation nework that is spanning the Globe from the North -South Transportation corridor, linking Russia,Iran and India to the Northern Sea route across the Arctic that links Asia with Europe and a major part of that is China's Belt and Road Initiaitive across Central Asia to Europe
One of the components is railway network that aims to span the globe, connecting the different sities of the various continents and linking the ocean ports worldwide. In this video I will look at China's ambitious plans for developing a global transport infrastructure, with some of the projects I have mention already underway. It is also important to consider the implications for Russia's interests, particularly in the context of the global confrontation between Beijing and Washington.
China is considering participating in the construction of a new railway route linking the Pacific and Atlantic oceans in South America, according to Bolivian President Luis Arce. Plus, he has expressed his interest in the potential construction of an interoceanic train connecting the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, commencing from the Peruvian megaport of Chancay and traversing the territories of BRICS partner countries, including Bolivia and Brazil. This information was conveyed by Arce via his Telegram channel, detailing the outcomes of his recent meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
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Its worth noting that the new megaport at Chancay, which was opened in Peru a few days earlier with the participation of Xi Jinping, is another key component of this infrastructure. The port is situated in the centre of the Pacific coast of South America. Its objective is to become the continent's primary transport and communication hub, facilitating trade and connectivity between countries in the region and Asia, particularly with China.
The port was constructed with the financial backing of China as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Its utilisation will reduce the transit time of goods from Latin American countries to China by 15-25 days. Currently, normally goods from Brazil are transported to China via its Atlantic coast ports and then through the Panama Canal. With the inauguration of a new port in Peru, they can be conveyed by rail to the Pacific coast, from where they can be transported from Chancay directly to China.
The rationale behind the Belt and Road Initiative
China continues to champion economic globalisation, a position that Xi Jinping has consistently espoused. This is to be expected, given that China has been the principal beneficiary of this system in recent years. It is important to note that China has been the primary beneficiary of the international division of labour and world trade. In the financial sphere, the United States was the main beneficiary, seeking to impose its own rules of the game on Beijing.
As part of its long-term strategy, China is building thetransport infrastructure that will facilitate the delivery of Chinese goods to key markets and the delivery of raw materials from external sources back to China . This is in line with the Belt and Road Initiative, which is designed to bolster China's position as a global economic power.
At the time of the Belt and Road Initiative's announcement in 2013, China's primary markets were the United States and Europe. Since then Chinese companies have invested considerable sums in port infrastructure in Europe and transit countries, including the port of Gwadar in Pakistan. With regard to trade with the United States, the maritime logistics infrastructure was already well-established. However, there were political risks associated with restricting Chinese companies' access to the American market. The first indication of potential issues arose in 2012, when the US imposed sanctions on Chinese telecommunications companies Huawei and ZTE.
The first significant trade conflict between the United States and China commenced with Donald Trump's ascension to the presidency in 2016. Since then , the Biden presidency has seen the imposition of sanctions on China's microelectronics industry and a mobilisation of Europe's economic resources in anticipation of a potential economic standoff with Beijing.
The proposed increase in tariffs on Chinese goods to 60% by Donald Trump will result in a significant reduction in Chinese trade with the United States. This will have a significant negative impact on the Chinese economy. In light of these developments, China is actively exploring alternative markets to offset potential future losses. From Beijing's perspective, South America represents a highly promising region in this regard.
There has been a notable increase in Chinese investment in Latin America, accompanied by a corresponding rise in bilateral trade. The expansion of Chinese exports is accompanied by a rise in imports, comprising both mineral resources (such as copper and lithium) and agricultural products (where transit time is a significant factor).
China already accounts for 31% of Brazilian exports, compared to just 11% for the US. For Peruvian exports, the figures are comparable (China - 36%, the US - 14%). In terms of Bolivian exports, China is the third-largest market, accounting for 11% of exports, behind Brazil (14%) and India (12%). For context, the US share is only 2.3%. Conversely, the United States accounts for 84% of Mexican exports.
In light of the increasingly assertive stance adopted by the United States, which has declared its intention to "contain" China, Beijing is compelled to contemplate the possibility of the global market fracturing into distinct macro-regions. In light of this potential scenario, China aims to establish a reserve of countries that align with its strategic interests and fall within its zone of influence. Furthermore, China is seeking to establish relations with the centres of other emerging macro-regions that do not oppose China, such as Russia, Brazil and South Africa.
This is why China is keen to develop ports and railways in Latin America. The new infrastructure will enable China to deliver goods to even the most remote regions in the largest quantities, and with the greatest possible speed. Of particular significance is the ability to import critical raw materials from this region. This includes lithium, which is essential for the production of electric batteries.
A potential scenario for China would be an escalation of confrontation with the United States.
One possible way for the United States to block China's sea routes would be to... It is within the realm of possibility that the United States may instigate such a scenario. In this scenario, the United States will seek to establish a "sanitary cordon" of satellite countries (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines) around the coast of China. In the most extreme case, this could result in the creation of obstacles for Chinese maritime transportation. The probability of such a scenario is perceived in Beijing as evidenced by recent discussions in Europe regarding the prohibition of Russian tankers from exiting the Baltic Sea and traversing the English Channel.
.An alternative route to the Indian Ocean is via Pakistan and the Pakistani port of Gwadar, which has been developed by the Chinese company China Overseas Port Holding Company (COPHC) since 2013. Despite Beijing's influence on Karachi, the West has been known to periodically instigate instability in Pakistan (in April 2022, Pakistani President Imran Khan, who pursued a policy of strengthening cooperation with China and Russia, was ousted).
Russia represents a key alternative
Given the circumstances, China is keen to explore the development of alternative routes. The sea route could commence at the ports of the DPRK in the Sea of Japan, proceed along the Russian coast to the Bering Strait, and then continue along the Northern Sea Route to Murmansk.
In the event of a Cold War 2.0, the most secure routes for China would be land routes from east to west, through Russia and Kazakhstan.
Rail freight transportation via Russia saw a 36% increase in 2023, reaching 161 million tons. It is anticipated that transportation will reach 180 million tons in 2024. Russia will continue to expand the capacity of the BAM, with the goal of reaching 270 million tons by 2032. Furthermore, there has been an increase in the transportation of automobiles via Russia.
Freight traffic is growing in several key areas, including the Trans-Caspian transport route through Kazakhstan (both to Russia and through the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan and Georgia to Turkey), the Black Sea to Bulgaria, and the Bosphorus to the Mediterranean. Concurrently, in the Caspian region, latitudinal routes converge with the North-South transport corridor.
In other words, it fosters economic growth in Eurasian countries and boosts Russian exports. Technological projects include the construction of power plants and power lines, as well as the involvement of Russian companies in the development of railways. The provision of Russian energy resources to developing regions, which were previously sent to Europe, represents a significant opportunity for the growth of raw materials supplies.
The development of these regions will create new markets for Chinese goods and services, including consumer products, mobile communications, construction equipment, and electric cars. Similarly, the construction of ports and railways in South America.Also these routes will also enable Russian exports of food, fertilisers and other products to reach world markets.