There is a growing consensus that the BRICS nations will soon announce the introduction of a trading currency for the settlement of trade between BRICS members, according to Analysts they anticipate that a multi-currency payment platform will be unveiled at the forthcoming BRICS summit meeting in Kazan.
So how is this likely to effect the fiat currencies like the dollar and the euro,plus will it make the payments between BRICS countries seemless and easy? Also what problems are needed to be overcome for this BRICS Payments system to be widely used and successful So stick with me while I look through what is likely to happen.
Well lets start with the dollar At a campaign rally in Wisconsin earlier this month, US presidential candidate Donald Trump gave his "America First" campaign a second wind by threatening 100% tariffs on any country that ditched the dollar.He seems to be the only US politician that has actually understood that weaponising the dollar was a measure that was likely to lead to its eventual downfall.
All the others seem to have their heads in the sand not realising or understanding that forcing some of the world''s largest economies away from using the dollar could have a devastating effect on its primacy in the long run.
Trump did not inform his supporters that these dollar-protecting measures would have a significant impact on American families, as many consumer goods would likely double in price. Approximately 70% of the products available at Walmart and Target supermarkets are sourced from China, which is a leading nation in the process of de-dollarisation.China has dumped hundreds of billions of US treasuries and Russia has completely dedolarised its economy and none of its current reserves are in dollars now.
Mr. Trump made these remarks ahead of the long-awaited annual BRICS summit, scheduled to take place in Kazan, Russia, from October 22-24. It is anticipated that the meeting will reveal a plan of action for the development of an alternative to the current dollar-based global financial system.
While the details remain scarce, some analysts anticipate the announcement of a multi-currency payment platform at the meeting. Some observers even anticipate the announcement of a roadmap for the launch of a gold-backed BRICS trading currency.
that is similar to the Bretton Woods system
The emergence of an alternative to the current dollar system would be of historic significance for a number of reasons. Firstly, it would mark the first significant step towards a new global financial system, moving beyond the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement.
The Bretton Woods system saw the dollar pegged to a fixed price of gold, with other currencies also pegged to the dollar. Countries with a positive trade balance in US currency could exchange their currency for gold.
The dollar system provided financial stability and afforded the United States virtually undisputed control over the global financial system. U.S. banks assumed the role of clearing houses for global trade. Even a Japanese company was required to purchase dollars to settle an invoice with a supplier in India. As a result of this centralisation, the United States was able to exclude any individual, business or even country from the global financial system.
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The Bretton Woods system began to show signs of weakness in 1971, when President Richard Nixon removed the dollar's link to gold. In response to a widening trade deficit, the United States opted to close the "gold window" rather than pursue a balanced trade position, effectively reneging on its Bretton Woods commitments.
The consequences of this decision were significant. The US government, now freed from the constraints of the gold standard, abandoned fiscal discipline and embarked on a period of significant spending. From 1971 to 2024, the US national debt increased from $400 billion to $35 trillion.
The servicing of the national debt now represents one of the largest item in the US national budget, exceeding even defence spending. Consequently, an increasing number of prominent economists and CEOs are issuing warnings. In a recent statement, Tesla CEO Elon Musk cautioned that: "The United States is on an unsustainable fiscal trajectory that could result in bankruptcy if current spending rates persist."
In particular, the United States could find itself unable to rely on creditors willing to purchase its debt. China has sold hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. Treasuries in recent years, and foreign investors have reduced their holdings of government debt. (The term 'money printing' is often used in this context, but what is really meant is debt issuance.)
BRICS vs. G7
Even without considering the significant US debt, a gradual move away from the dollar is likely. The United States' share of the global economy is gradually diminishing.
In 2016, the combined GDP of the BRICS countries surpassed that of the G7. The group now represents 35% of global output, compared to 30% for the G7. China accounts for 30% of global industrial output, which is almost twice that of the United States.
The design of a financial or monetary architecture for countries as diverse as the BRICS members represents a complex undertaking. However, historical precedent offers some guidance. In a recent development, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has proposed the introduction of a currency based on the European Currency Unit (ECU), the predecessor of the euro.
The concept was first proposed in 1979 in response to Nixon's decision to close the "gold window". In the absence of a gold peg, European currencies began to fluctuate significantly. The ECU thus became a common unit of account, providing stability to currency markets.
Another potentially useful template is the so-called 'bancor', a currency unit proposed by economist John Maynard Keynes during the Bretton Woods Conference.
Keynes conceived the Bancor as a kind of supranational unit of account, tied to a basket of basic commodities, including oil and wheat. This would guarantee that its value would be linked to tangible economic resources, rather than being susceptible to fluctuations in national currencies.
Additionally, Keynes suggested implementing penalties for countries with persistent trade surpluses or deficits, with the aim of achieving a more balanced global trade landscape. The United States, however, declined to adopt the bancor on the grounds that it would impede free trade. However, the current persistent imbalances (notably the significant U.S. trade deficit with China) serve to reinforce Keynes's vision.
The launch of mBridge is imminent. While a single BRICS currency is unlikely in the near term, China is collaborating with other countries on mBridge, a blockchain-based platform that facilitates financial transactions in multiple currencies.
mBridge, a blockchain-based platform jointly developed by the central banks of China, Thailand, the UAE, and Hong Kong, enables instant peer-to-peer transactions without the involvement of third parties.
The platform is reported to utilise blockchain technology comparable to that of the Ethereum cryptocurrency, in addition to supporting central bank digital currencies.
The mBridge platform is designed to streamline international trade financing, reducing costs for all parties involved. A Thai company will be able to sell rice to a Singaporean trader in Thai baht or any other agreed currency. Transactions will be completed instantaneously and without the need for third-party involvement. In mBridge, banks from participating countries act as nodes in a single network.
The current membership of the BRICS group comprises the five founding members (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), plus Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE. Over 40 countries have expressed interest in joining the group, with some anticipating that it may eventually encompass up to a hundred countries or more.
However, the BRICS group surprised the international community last month when it announced a temporary halt to the acceptance of new members. No reason was provided, but the freeze may be related to the complexities of developing a new financial architecture with a truly global impact.
There are numerous reasons why BRICS should avoid taking a confrontational stance on this issue. Even a straightforward announcement of a plan for a new monetary system could have a significant impact on global financial markets. It is evident that the group does not require any form of accusation regarding the potential for instigating a financial crisis.
The BRICS' future direction will be influenced by a number of factors. To what extent is the US prepared to defend the dollar? How will the US address the widening debt and trade imbalances? What will be the outcome for its increasingly fractured political system?
While President Trump's pledge to penalize nations for pursuing de-dollarization may be largely rhetorical, the intensification of US sanctions could potentially trigger a financial reset in response.
A potential course of action for the BRICS would be to launch a currency unit backed in part by gold and natural resources, particularly oil, minerals and metals. The group has considerable leverage, given that it controls a significant portion of the planet's mineral wealth, which gives it the ability to influence global prices.
One indication that BRICS is preparing for a potential financial reset is the unprecedented accumulation of gold. Over the past two years, members of the BRICS have been purchasing gold at an unprecedented rate. Historically, this is the monetary metal used to recalibrate currencies in the aftermath of a financial or monetary crisis.
It is, therefore, inevitable that the current global financial system will undergo a transformation after 80 years. The Bretton Woods agreement was essentially a neo-colonial restructuring of the British Empire. It only slightly updated the financial system and moved the centre of power from London to New York.
It seems likely that BRICS will attempt to develop a new financial architecture from scratch, with the aim of reflecting the economic and demographic realities of the 21st century, rather than those of the 20th.So lets see what they come up with at the BRICS summit in Kazan