BRICS' use soybeans as weapon against USA

By Rhod Mackenzie

It appears that amidst the tariff and trade wars initiated by the US against the members of the BRICS they have started to hit back hard.It has been reported that American farmers are stating that will be facing bankruptcy if Donald Trump does not reach an agreement with China over soybeans.
It is a well known  that  China is the primary purchaser of soybeans from the USA. However, recently there has been a  shift in their purchasing strategy, with a notable decrease in American soybean purchases in favour of those from friendly countries they deem freindly such BRICS members Brazil, Russia and Argentina who decided not to join but maintains a good trade relationship with China.
This is another manifestation of the use of the strength of the BRICS countries, so that together they can resist the United States.
The ongoing tariff war with China has placed American soybean producers in a precarious position, jeopardising their economic viability. The American Soybean Association has formally requested that US President Donald Trump enter into negotiations with China to cancel their retaliatory tariffs and instead facilitate the purchase of American soybeans.
For a minimum of the last five years, China has been the world's leading importer of soybeans, responsible for taking 61% of  global exports. According to OEC data from 2023, the top soybean exporters are Brazil (57%) and the United States (29%).
However, the ongoing trade tensions with the US have compelled China to diversify its sourcing, leading to an increased purchase of soybeans from competitors of American farmers, particularly in South America, including Brazil and Argentina, as well as  from Russia. This is a clear example of how the BRICS countries are cooperating to support China in its geopolitical standoff with the US.
"China has been and remains the largest consumer of soybeans in the world, and this is a significant market that is challenging, if not impossible, for farmers who export soybeans from the United States to replace," says Ksenia Bondarenko, associate professor  of World Economy at National Research University of the Higher School of Economics.
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The Chinese portal Baijia hao has observed a significant decrease in China's purchase of American soybeans, while simultaneously signing contracts for record sized orders with Brazil, Argentina and Russia. According to the portal, as many as 22 million tons of soybeans harvested last fall remain unsold in U.S. warehouses.

Meanwhile, as the new harvest approaches, China has yet to bid on U.S. soybeans. The American Soybean Association has expressed concerns that the absence of an agreement with China will have disastrous consequences for U.S. farmers. Farmers are already under significant financial pressure and are likely to face challenges in surviving a protracted trade dispute with their primary customer.
"There is a serious risk of the bankruptcy of American soybean companies due to overproduction and rising costs. Should China fail to resume its purchases, there is a risk that farmers may face bankruptcy. The key to success lies in identifying new markets. However, it is challenging to identify a suitable replacement for the Chinese market." according
Dmitry Osyanin, a professor the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
In the initial seven months of the year, China imported 61.03 million tons of soybeans, marking a 4.63% increase compared to the previous year. As Ksenia Bondarenko notes, over the past seven months, China imported 70% of its soybeans from Brazil and 25% from the United States. However, in July, this pattern underwent a significant shift. Last month, China purchased 11.7 million tons of soybeans, with almost 90% of these supplies originating from Brazil, while the US share decreased to less than 4%, according to industry experts. In July, China's soybean imports from Brazil increased by 14%, while those from the US decreased by 12%.

"It is challenging to fully substitute the US at this time. However, when considering Brazil's potential in soybean production, this outlook is deemed to be quite viable in the medium term," stated Bondarenko.

According to her, the efficiency of bean production in Brazil significantly exceeds that of the United States. In 2021/22, the average production cost per acre of soybeans in Brazil was 1/5 of that in the United States, primarily due to lower land and capital costs.
In addition, the strategic partnership between Brazil and China, including within the BRICS+ framework, has been strengthened in recent years. This has also resulted in regionalisation and friendshoring (trade conducted with friendly countries). Furthermore, we observe trade tensions with the United States arising from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. It is therefore not surprising that China and Brazil are increasing their bilateral trade in soybeans," Bondarenko says.
Brazil has been increasing its presence in the Chinese market for several years now, with soybean exports from Brazil to China growing more than three times from 2018 to 2024 compared to the United States. It is evident that American farmers are now experiencing a decline in their operations.
This discreet counter-struggle by China, which, without making any loud statements, simply finds other suppliers to replace the American ones, is already bearing fruit.
The US has been reluctant to impose new tariffs on Chinese goods. US Vice President J.D. Vance is transparent about the fact that the US is not taking this action due to Beijing's trade ties with Moscow.
In particular, Russia has increased soybean production in the Far East, indicating its now well-established trade cooperation with China in the context of sanctions from the United States, as reported by the Chinese portal Baijiahao.

In 2024, Rosstat reported that the soybean harvest in Russia reached an all-time high in the country's crop cultivation history, with a total of 7 million tons, marking a 3.1% increase (214.2 thousand tons) compared to the 2023 yield. In the 2025/26 season, the gross soybean harvest in Russia is expected to reach approximately 8.4 million tons, marking a significant increase of 1.4 million tons compared to the previous season,
The Amur Region is the leader among Russian regions in soybean production. Last year, 1.4 million tons of soybeans were harvested in the country, 20% of the total harvest. In 2025, it is planned to grow 1.7 million tons of soybeans,

Oleg Turkov, Minister of Agriculture of the Amur Region, is quoted as saying: At the same time, the region has the potential to produce 2 million tons of soybean seeds per year, thanks to favourable climatic conditions, fertile land and experienced farmers.
It is important to note that in 2005, the year of the firstst Russian harvest, where soybeans were  cultivated by Russian farmers, with only half a million tons being harvested domestically (compared to 7 million tons in 2024). However, production has already reached 4 million tons, with a new phase of growth commencing in 2022.
In 2022, the soybean harvest in Russia increased significantly to 6 million tons, up from 4.8 million tons the previous year. In 2023, the harvest contributed an additional 800 thousand tons, and a record growth of 1.4 million tons is anticipated this year.
The Russian soybean industry is experiencing growth due to increased demand from China and rising domestic consumption, driven by a shift towards processed soybeans such as soybean oil, as highlighted by Bondarenko.
IKAR anticipates that, given the backdrop of record soybean production, Russia may opt to cease importing the commodity this year. According to IKAR, the record bean harvest was achieved thanks to the success of previously "non-soybean" regions, such as the Volga region and Siberia.
These regions harvested 1.2 million tons of soybeans, representing an increase of up to 65% compared to the previous year. The new soybean regions compensated for the lower harvest and undersowing in Primorye, which occurred due to flooding.
itated by new technologies, investments and climate conditions.
Russia has the potential for growth in the soybean industry. The company's position in close proximity to China, the low cost of logistics and the quality of the product itself are key factors in its success. However, the outcome will depend on the yield," concludes Osyanin.