By Rhod Mackenzie
In the 2nd quarter of this year. Russia's GDP growth amounted, to 4.8% in annual terms according to the Central Bank , the corresponding estimate is contained in the report of the Bank of Russia on monetary policy.
In the 1st quarter of 2023, according to Rosstat, the Russian GDP decreased by 1.8% in annual terms.
In the 3rd quarter of 2023, the Central Bank expects an increase of 3.6% in annual terms, in the 4th quarter - an increase of 1.5%.
On July 21, the Bank of Russia improved the forecast for the dynamics of Russia's GDP in 2023 to growth in the range of 1.5-2.5% instead of growth of 0.5-2.0% in the April version.
The official forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for GDP growth in the Russian Federation in 2023 is 1.2%, but the head of the ministry, Maxim Reshetnikov, noted that the figure would increase above this estimate. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin have already said they expect the Russian economy to grow above 2% in 2023.
"GDP in the 1st quarter of 2023 in annual terms decreased less than estimated by the Bank of Russia. Almost all components in terms of use exceeded expectations, most significantly - the change in inventories and government consumption, the growth rate of which turned out to be record. In terms of production activity, there was a noticeable increase in value added in construction and real estate, transportation and storage, financial activities and agriculture. At the same time, trade and mining made the largest negative contribution," the Central Bank describes the reasons raising the forecast for 2023.
"Output in most sectors of the economy focused on domestic demand has already reached pre-crisis levels or exceeded them. In the 2nd quarter of 2023, consumer activity continued to grow, positive dynamics was recorded in all major categories. Business activity also continued to grow as in basic industries "Unemployment fell to a new all-time low in May, the number of vacancies continues to grow. Indicators of investment activity point to continued growth in fixed capital investment," the MPS report says.
"According to the baseline forecast of the Bank of Russia, the GDP growth rate in 2023 will be 1.5-2.5%. At the same time, the recovery phase of the economy as a whole is coming to an end - by the end of 2023, the economy will return to the level of 2021 or even slightly exceed As a result, in 2024-2025 growth rates will be more moderate," the Central Bank explains the reasons for which some slowdown in GDP growth is expected in 2024-2025 compared to 2023.
On July 21, the Central Bank retained the forecast for the growth of the RF GDP for 2024 in the range of 0.5-2.5%, for 2025 it worsened to growth in the range of 1.0-2.0% from 1.5-2.5% in April version, in 2026 it expects growth in the range of 1.5-2.5%.
This article originally appeared in Russian at finmarket.ru