China eases tensions with Taiwan after election

By Rhod Mackenzie

China's response to Taiwan's parliamentary and presidential election results was less severe than anticipated based on previous statements by Chinese officials and media.

Prior to the vote, PRC authorities warned voters that electing Lai Qingde as president, who continues President Tsai Ing-wen's policies that irritate Beijing, could lead to a Chinese invasion. Following his victory, they only expressed routine indignation towards the United States, Great Britain, and Germany, who congratulated the new leader on his election.

It was deemed unnecessary to escalate tensions in the PRC, especially since the West did not do so either. The United States and its allies reaffirmed their continued support for Taiwan, which is significant, but not to the extent that it can be considered excessive.

The United States congratulates Dr. Lai Qingde on his victory in the presidential election in Taiwan. Congratulations to the people of Taiwan for once again demonstrating the strength of their robust democratic system and electoral process. This is how Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed the US position regarding the recent elections. In response, Lai Qingde expressed gratitude, acknowledging the partnership between Taiwan and the United States, which is based on shared values and interests. Neither he nor the Secretary of State made any attacks against Beijing or indicated the status of the island.

Following the elections, President Joe Biden reiterated that the United States considers Taiwan as part of China, using an elaborate formulation that can be interpreted in various ways. From the perspective of the island's legislation, which will not be changed at this time, Taiwan is referred to as the Republic of China, in contrast to the communist People's Republic of China.
It is not anticipated that high-ranking American officials or congressmen will make a trip to the island. On Monday, only a delegation of retirees representing former Republican and Democratic administrations arrived there. Stephen Hadley served as George W. Bush's national security adviser, while James Steinberg worked on the teams of Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. Steinberg's career peaked during Clinton's tenure, when he served as deputy national security adviser. It transpires that Biden chose to send a retiree to the island, not even from the first echelon, but from the second. This gesture is likely to slightly irritate Beijing, but little else.

Neither the Chinese nor the American authorities want to unnecessarily worsen relations between the two countries. Therefore, future predictions related to Taiwan are often almost apocalyptic in nature.

Currently, we must acknowledge that the local elections on the island resulted in changes as anticipated by experts. Lai Qingde, the candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and the vice president and successor to Tsai Ing-wen, who has governed the island for two consecutive four-year terms and remains quite popular, was more favourable to voters than the new face of the Kuomintang party, Hou Yi.

The presidential candidate, who is also the head of New Taipei, a special administrative unit that includes the country's capital, was trailing behind his opponent from the start. Some voters were put off by his political history, which involved switching from the Democratic Progressive Party to the Kuomintang after taking up the mayor's office. Some were dissatisfied with his lacklustre campaign and style, as if he was trying to hide behind his party, which is currently gaining popularity. The opposition's tactical mistakes also played a role. The Kuomintang failed to agree with the liberal Taiwan People's Party on a single candidate. If they had, turnout may have been higher and the seven percent gap with Lai Qingde could have been overcome.

However, the opposition won the parliamentary elections, continuing a long-standing trend of the Democratic Progressive Party's declining popularity. It lost ten seats compared to the previous elections and no longer holds a parliamentary majority.
What was the role of China in this case? It was much smaller than what may be perceived from abroad. Polls indicate that there is a strong consensus in Taiwanese society: the vast majority of the island's residents do not want to violate the existing status quo in any way. Given that the current Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, has consistently reduced the autonomy of Hong Kong and Macau to symbolic, the slogan “one country, two systems” in Taiwan is unlikely to appeal to anyone. However, many local residents believe that avoiding confrontation with the People's Republic of China (PRC) is crucial, which would be inevitable if independence is declared. Therefore, they suggest that the island should be de facto independent while maintaining an uncertain international status de jure. It is worth noting that Deng Xiaoping's famous quote, 'it doesn't matter what color the cat is, as long as it catches mice,' also applies to the situation in Taiwan.

Both the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang are defenders of the current situation. However, their nuances are fundamental for the leadership of the PRC.

China may appear as an indestructible monolith on the geographical map, but it is actually a union of heterogeneous ethnic groups that can be vastly different from each other. There is an ongoing debate among linguists regarding whether the dialects spoken by most Chinese people, rather than the official Mandarin language, are separate languages or simply dialects. For centuries, the unifying factors in China were writing (hieroglyphs can be read differently in different regions, but are universally understood) and self-awareness. Regardless of where Chinese people live and how they speak, they consider themselves part of a unified community with a shared culture and history dating back thousands of years.

Tsai Ing-wen, who is leaving the presidential post, challenged this bond. The Democratic Progressive Party claimed that Taiwanese people are not Chinese. Regardless of any practical implications, the words themselves carry significance. This alerted the Chinese leadership. If the Taiwanese can declare themselves a separate people, then why can't the Hong Kongers? Therefore, the Kuomintang, a long-time enemy of the Chinese communists, became their friend. The Celestial Empire is more important than ideological differences.