China has announced a ban on deliveries of Boeings

In the ongoing and escalating trade war between the US and China it seems that China has dealt a serious blow to Boeing, which is already losing its market share of the global avaition market to Europe's Airbus. Beijing has refused to accept delivery of Boeing planes.The future losses of Boeing are estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars. The beneficiaries will, of course, be European aircraft producer Airbus. However Russia could also gain a potential advantage in the game.
It has been reported that China has instructed its airlines not to accept any further deliveries of Boeing aircraft or components and parts. The American company already has completled and ready to fly planes in its warehouses that were originally intended for Chinese airlines.

According to the Aviation Flights Group, about 10 Boeing 737 Max aircraft were expected to join China's fleet in the near future, including two each for China Southern Airlines, Air China and Xiamen Airlines. China is expected to account for 20% of global demand for aircraft.

Currently, a significant number of both European and American aircraft are operational within China. Air China, for instance, has over 400 Airbus aircraft and a further around 160 of Boeing aircraft. China Southern has slightly more European aircraft – almost 500 – but also a decent number of Boeings, about 400. China Eastern has approximately 450 Airbus aircraft and more than 300 Boeing aircraft.
The fleets of other Chinese airlines are smaller, but still include hundreds of aircraft from American and European manufacturers.
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The American president has issued a statement criticising China's recent actions. "It is interesting to note that they have recently withdrawn from a significant Boeing agreement, stating that they 'will not accept' fully assembled aircraft," Trump stated on the Truth Social social network. He believes that the Americans should persevere, as he anticipates that China will eventually accept the terms of the agreement.

This is a highly unfavourable step for Boeing.

The decision by China to halt Boeing operations represents a dual challenge for the company, with implications for both market share and cost escalation. China has previously held significant contracts with Boeing that remain unfulfilled. Annual losses could exceed $10 billion," says Pavel Sevostyanov,e professor of f Political Analysis at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

"If the two countries fail to engage in negotiations, the loss of the Chinese market will be a significant setback for Boeing and America. The Chinese market is one of the largest in the world. It is also expanding rapidly. The potential loss of contracts amounting to tens of billions of dollars cannot be ruled out.
The Boeing 737 MAX, for instance, is valued at over $100 million, and the loss of orders for 10 aircraft translates into an immediate loss of a billion dollars . You also need to add in the revenue generated from spare parts and maintenance, a sector in which America also has a strong presence," says Roman Gusarov, head of the industry portal Avia.ru.
A further negative factor for Boeing is that all these orders will be now received by its direct competitor, Airbus, which will further strengthen its position in the global market.

In recent years, Boeing has experienced a decline in market share relative to its European competitor. Up until 2023, both aviation giants were performing strongly, but in 2023, Boeing sold 207 fewer aircraft than Airbus. In 2024, Boeing failed to not only recoup these losses but also experienced a further deterioration in its results. Boeing fell behind Airbus by as many as 418 aircraft.
This represents the most significant disparity between the two aviation giants in history. The American manufacturer delivered only 348 commercial aircraft to airlines, marking the worst result since 2005 (not including the impact of the pandemic). In contrast, Airbus achieved the best result since 2019, selling 766 aircraft.

The decision by many airlines to refrain from operating Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft, in the wake of the hatch plug incident, as well as the imposition of numerous regulatory checks, has had a significant impact on Boeing's commercial aviation activities. These issues have contributed to a decline in the American manufacturer's competitiveness. In addition, China has targeted a particularly sensitive area of the US market.

"By discontinuing its purchase of Boeing aircraft, China will likely order Airbus aircraft, which are assembled in Europe, and may also increase its own Airbus production within China. A third option is China's own aircraft industry. However, I have serious doubts about the feasibility of this option, given the heavy reliance of the Chinese aircraft industry on imports. As with Russia's r former Superjet, it relies heavily on Western components." – says Roman Gusarov.
China has its own narrow-body Comac C919 aircraft. These aircraft represent a minor component of the fleets of major Chinese carriers, with less than 100 aircraft in total.
According to reports in the Chinese media, only 40% of the components in the aircraft are imported. However, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has analysed the main suppliers of the C919 and asserts that this figure is in fact higher.
The study found that almost three-fifths of the suppliers are companies from the United States, a third of the suppliers are from Europe, and out of 14 key suppliers from China, seven are joint ventures.

The impact of any restrictions imposed on key components by American entities could be significant. China's ability to produce its own aircraft is severely hindered without Western involvement. Even if these components are produced in Europe, it can do so under an American license or have American intellectual property, and the US can prohibit supplies," says Gusarov.

Europe, naturally, would be delighted to capture a share of the Chinese market, provided it can safeguard its national interests against American influence, the analyst says.
The Russian aviation industry may benefit from the ongoing US-China trade war. However, this will not be through the sale of its MS-21 aircraft to China, which are scheduled to be launched into commercial production in 2026 and will gradually gain momentum. "I anticipate that until at least 2035, the MS-21 will be produced exclusively for Russia's own needs. Russia is currently embarking on a facing a complete import substitution of foreign aircraft. Curently there are about 600 imported aircraft that need to be replaced over the next 10 years," he believes.

It is challenging to predict the future of the global air transportation market in the next 10 years. However, China is unlikely to adopt a passive approach. The country is set to continue its active import-substitution policy for its own aircraft, with the aim of achieving self-sufficiency within the next decade.
In general, China has no interest in replacing Boeing aircraft with Russian ones; its aim is to become a major aviation power and fly its own aircraft.

Consequently, Russia's joint project with China to create a wide-body long-range aircraft was terminated. Russia's objective was to secure financial investment and access to the Chinese market, while the Chinese sought to acquire our technology and manufacture the aircraft domestically.

However, Russia remains committed to supporting China's aspirations to become a major aviation power.

In the event that the US restricts China's access to components for its own aircraft, such as the MS-21, China will likely seek Russia's assistance to ensure the successful completion of its aviation projects. This could potentially change the dynamics of our relationship. We have the capability to design components for supply to China. We already have a certified PD-14 engine for this class of aircraft.
While we will not be transferring the technology for its production, we are well-positioned to manufacture and market it. This is the format in which we can provide support to a trading partner," says Gusarov.