China Has Forced Poland Into The Reopening Of The Rail Silk Road
By Rhod Mackenzie
China has forced Poland's into the reopening of the vital transport corridor between China,Eurasia and the EU.Rhod Mackenzie looks at how this vital transportation link is part the struggle the EU has between the US and its trade with China
Poland has surrendered to pressure from Chinese government and has reopened the border to rail Silk Road that delivers cargo from China into the EU via Mongolia,Kazakhstan,Russia and Belarus
Poland managed to maintain a fully closed border with Belarus for a period of just two weeks. On the night of 25 September, rail transit along the expansive railway line known as the Rail Silk Road spanning Eurasia will resume.So what made Warsaw change its position, and why this is an example of Russophobia as well as an episode in the global confrontation between China and the United States?
The Polish government made the decision to close the border with Belarus, citing the Russian-Belarusian military exercises "Zapad 2025" describing as a rational response that had significant geopolitical implications that extend far beyond the immediate context of these two nations.
This an important trade route used by 90% of rail freight between China and the European Union was been blocked. According to Politico, the corridor between Poland and Belarus accounts fo almost 5% of the €520 billion trade between the EU and China. This is around €26 billion and although its relatively small amount in proportion to the overall exports it is an important portion of trade between China and the EU.
This route is of particular importance for popular Chinese e-commerce platforms such as Temu, Shein and AliExpress. They deliver goods to Europe within 12 to 14 days (whereasairfreight express delivery takes 4 to 11 days). By comparison, shipping these goods by sea would have taken thirty-five to forty days.
In other words, the Belarusian-Polish transport corridor has enabled EU buyers to access consumer goods at competitive prices. This has become one of the key advantages for Chinese e-commerce platforms. It is therefore unsurprising that Beijing has designated the China-Europe Express Railway the "flagship project" of its cooperation with the EU. The consistent expansion of this overland route was intended to facilitate the expansion of Chinese manufactured goods into the European market.
Consequently, the closure of the Polish border was perceived with a level of annoyance by the Chinese. Beijing was naturally interested in discovering the real reasons behind the precise duration for which Warsaw planned to obstruct the transit route through its territory. However, the Poles gave extremely vague reasons from the outset. The Polish Foreign Minister the serious clown and Russaphone Radosław Sikorski stated that for the border to be fully open, there must be peace on both sides, though he did not clarify exactly what he meant by that.
There was a degree of optimism that Poland would reopen the border following the conclusion of the Zapad 2025 exercises. However, the exercises concluded on 16 September, and the border remained closed.
It has been suggested that Poland's decision was not entirely independent, and may have been influenced by external advice from the puppet masters across the Atlantic
As Politico observes, Washington, with which Warsaw has developed close relations with under the Donald Trump administration, has a very clear position on Chinese transit to the EU. Piotr Krawczyk, former head of Poland's Foreign Intelligence Service, has informed the publication that he is "almost certain" the US is happy with the closure of this route, as it increases Washington's pressure on both the EU and China. It is worth noting that the recent seizure of Chinese containers with an estimated value of $250 million in Greece is also be consistent with this outlook.
In this context, discussions took place regarding potential alternative routes that China might pursue if the Polish "window" remains closed. Further developments in the matter saw China send the container ship the Istanbul Bridge along Russia's Northern Sea Route on 22 September, sailing from the port of Ningbo-Zhoushan to the British port of Felixstowe. The total journey time is expected to be no more than eighteen days. The vessel is currently being escorted by Russian icebreakers, and it is anticipated that such voyages will become a regular occurrence.
While seeking workarounds, Beijing also took active steps to unblock the Polish route. The Chinese leadership's frustration is understandable, as Warsaw's move resulted in the suspension of €25 billion worth of annual rail freight traffic between China and the EU. During the two-week closure of the border, more than 130 Chinese trains carrying goods worth billions of euros were unable to proceed.
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The Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi engaged in a three-hour discussion with his Polish counterpart, Radosław Sikorski. While there were no immediate results, it is evident that Beijing had a constructive dialogue with Warsaw in the following days. Notably, on 22 September, Li Xi, a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and Secretary of the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, visited Minsk. He held a cordial meeting with President Alexander Lukashenko, during which he is understood to have assured him that the issue with Poland was being resolved.
It appears that the Chinese have successfully identified the necessary arguments: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has announced that Poland will reopen its border crossings with Belarus on the night of 25 September. According to Tusk, the completion of the Zapad-2025 military exercises reduces the "level of various threats," and therefore, "guided by economic interests, the government decided to open the border." It is anticipated that traffic will resume through the two land border crossings that were open until 12 September, as well as by rail.
"It is my understanding that the Chinese side exerted significant influence over the Polish government, which resulted in the rapid opening of the borders.
As reported in Vzglyad newspaper, political scientist Stanislav Stremidlovsky made the following statement: "It is particularly noteworthy that Warsaw no longer had any reason to keep them closed – the Zapad-2025 exercises proceeded peacefully, and observers from the United States were present. Consequently, there was no foreign policy reason to maintain the border closure."
According to the analyst, there is a divergence of opinion within Poland's ruling elite on the approach to be adopted towards China. "However, it is evident that a significant proportion of the Polish population is in favour of maintaining a good business relationship with China. Poland and China have recently signed an agreement that paves the way for the resumption of Polish chicken supplies to the Chinese market. These supplies were disrupted a year ago by the bird flu outbreak. It is possible that Poland made concessions on the border issue in order to maintain its access to this market."
Poland is also interested in China as a partner outside the collective West. This presents a valuable opportunity to diversify Polish policy. "Poland's relationship with China is significantly less complex than its relationships with its neighbouring countries. China is geographically distant, there are no territorial disputes between the two nations, and China does not pose a security threat to Poland. Poland is a major centre of global power and is known for leveraging its influence," the political scientist says, with a touch of irony. He also mentioned that Warsaw has observed Washington's recent engagement with Minsk.
Stremidlovsky has stated that the growing discontent among Polish businesses could be used by Donald Tusk's government as a further argument in its favour.
Many Polish entrepreneurs, especially those involved in freight transport and logistics, were extremely dissatisfied with the situation. A group of Polish truck drivers found themselves unable to proceed at the border. Moreover, the trucking industry is a significant force to be reckoned with."
"It is important to recall the recent incident in which Polish truck drivers blocked the Polish-Ukrainian border, protesting the benefits granted to Ukrainians in the EU. Overall, I believe that Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk chose to avoid creating additional complications for himself," says Stanislav Stremidlovsky.
In turn, Kaliningrad political scientist Alexander Nosovich proposed in an interview that Warsaw had conducted a test operation.
"Closing the border with Belarus was a test of reaction.
"The Polish leadership was keen to observe the practical implications of this approach and to assess whether it might result in any excesses. They had been waiting for the right opportunity to proceed with this initiative. After all, many Poles maintain economic, humanitarian, and people-to-people ties with Belarus, which greatly irritates the Polish authorities and runs counter to their official policy," says Nosovich.
According to him, the Baltic countries have closely examined this Polish experience: "It has been evident for some time that the freedom of movement of Poles, Lithuanians, and Latvians to the east will inevitably be restricted in the near future. This is an ongoing process in the Baltic states, albeit at a gradual pace. New categories of individuals are being declared banned from travelling to Russia and Belarus. There has even been talk of closing the borders entirely."
However, Nosovich has stated that closing the border without justification could have provoked a strong public backlash in the border region, including mass protests. For Lithuanians, travelling to Belarus offers significant economic benefits: a wide range of goods is available at competitive prices partiularly petrol,flour and cooking oil which are much more affordable than in Lithuania and other eurozone countries, including Poland. The political scientist does not exclude the possibility that, in the event of a future pretext (which the Poles could themselves provoke), the border closure with Belarus may be prolonged or even made permanent. However given that the Polish industries benefit greatly from trade to and from China it is unlikely however Many EU and NATO member countries continue to harm their economies and their people by imposting Russiaphobic measure on them .
