By Rhod Mackenzie
China has invited Russia to joint it "to direct the reform of global governance in the right direction." This official statement by Xi Jinping is difficult to understand other than than as a direct signal of the possibility of mutually creating the rules of the game for the rest of the world. What exactly does this signal mean and why does Beijing need Moscow's help on such a fundamental issue?
Chimerica.
At the beginning of the 2000s, some American analysts named a Chinese-American alliance (Chimerica, from China and America), which ontrol the order in the modern world.
However, the alliance did not materialize in the end. Washington did not want to share any real power, and China refused to play the role of an American mouthpiece and water carrier (economic, political, whatever). And instead of an alliance, there has beenan escalation of US-Chinese relations today.
Currently, right before our eyes, a new term has emerged and is being strengthened in the media - let's call it, for example, Kirussika. A Russian-Chinese alliance to manage the modern world. One can even say that it is not just some individual political scientists who is now talking about him, but the head of the PRC, Xi Jinping, himself.
One won't make it
At a meeting with Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko, the Chinese leader suggested that Moscow should work together to "direct global governance reform in the right direction, and protect the common interests of the emerging market and developing countries." Simply put, four hands to deal with the transformation of the unipolar world into a multipolar one and prescribe the rules of this new world.
This loud statement has not been characteristic of Chinese diplomacy until recently, but one which fully fits into the new, more active foreign policy of the PRC. The global international system as it currently exists is coming to an end. “The Chinese leadership is aware that the institutions created after World War II are no longer working effectively. In the near future, the inevitable renewal of these structures will follow, which means that the world will face a global shake-up. And in this struggle, China needs allies,” Elena Suponina, a political scientist in international affairs, explains to the VZGLYAD newspaper.
It would seem, why does Beijing need allies? Today, the Chinese economy is the second (and according to some sources, the first) in the world. In terms of population, China shares the first / second place with India, but the Chinese population is still more prosperous and monolithic. Chinese science is no longer sharpened to copy Western technologies, and in some areas (the same quantum computing) is ahead of the Americans.
Yes, all these achievements are evident. But there are also drawbacks - with the money and technology, China has neither the necessary image nor a significant political resource for global governance. Because of this, it is not able to control affairs alone, even on its periphery.
“China cannot single-handedly control Central Asia, as it does not have sufficient resources and competencies, and is also perceived by the population of the region as an aggressive hostile force. Beijing now interacts with the region mainly as a source of raw materials and, to a lesser extent, as a transit zone. Humanitarian and information projects have practically no effect on the ultra-high level of Sinophobia in the region. China is not trusted and will not be trusted in the near future,” Nikita Mendkovich, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club, explains to the VZGLYAD newspaper.
Moscow gives a relationship
This is why China needs allies. Those with which he does not have conflicting interests (that is, India disappears). Those who are involved in global politics (that is, not South Africa with Brazil). Those with whom China for the most part have common enemies and friends (that is, not Saudi Arabia and Iran). Finally, those who are among the leading world powers - that is, Russia. The only candidate, in fact, who can close Chinese weaknesses and shortcomings.
For example, in the same Central Asia. “Moscow has enormous authority in the region, despite the Russophobic propaganda funded by the United States. The latest polls by American NGOs show the enormous popularity of Russian TV channels, in almost all republics the educated class speaks Russian, court verdicts and special literature are written in the same language in all areas,” Nikita Mendkovich continues to explain.
A similar situation is emerging in other regions of the Global South - for example, in Africa.
And the point here is not only China's desire to extract resources from these countries - China's foreign policy is not provided with some kind of humanitarian component based on a global, in a good way, missionary idea. “The Chinese dream is the prosperity of the Chinese people. When the PRC talks about the concept of global prosperity, one must understand that the Chinese are primarily concerned about their own well-being. That is, the stability of Chinese society, the improvement of the well-being of Chinese citizens, the growth of the prosperity of the Chinese middle class, the equalization of incomes with a fair distribution among the Chinese provinces,” explains Elena Suponina.
In fact, Russia has a vast track record of internationalism, from sincere efforts to industrialize developing countries to humanitarian missions and student education. Therefore, not only in Central Asia, but also in Africa, Russia is trusted more than the Chinese.
Finally, Russia - unlike China - does not hesitate to use force to protect its partners. Either directly (through its proxies in Syria), or through PMCs (as in Africa). And the Russian army - unlike the Chinese - already has combat experience in waging real conventional wars.
“China simply does not have the military power that Russia has,” Alexei Mukhin, general director of the Center for Political Information, explains to the VZGLYAD newspaper. Therefore, they rely on Russia more than on China, and even to some extent they want to balance the Chinese influence with the Russian one (for example, not only in Africa, but also in the Middle East).
As for Russia's interest in this Kirussika, two issues must be resolved here. And the first of them - what place will the Russian Federation take in it?
“When creating a new security system in the system of international relations, China will try to play a leading role, and many others will follow. With Russia, China speaks on an equal footing, which cannot but flatter, but further conversation on an equal footing will depend on the state of affairs in Russia and around it. And if Moscow wants to remain equal, it needs to develop its economy and strengthen its society,” says Elena Suponina.
Here, much will also depend on the state of affairs in Ukraine - and from this point of view, Moscow simply will not be able to play a role other than an equal one. After all, if she wins, then, taking into account her sharply increasing authority, there will be no talk of any “little brother”. If it loses, then it will be possible to forget about some form of partnership altogether.
The second question is how other great powers of the Global South will view this bilateral partnership. For example, India, for whom Beijing is still a rival. Won't it spoil relations with New Delhi with such an alliance?
With a high degree of probability - it will not spoil. First of all, because India perfectly understands the essence of Russian-Chinese relations, that they are not directed against Indian interests.
“China and Russia are long-term partners due to the fact that both countries are subject to NATO aggression: Russia in Ukraine, and China in Taiwan. Therefore, cooperation was, is and will be, especially in the framework of countering Western aggression in other regions. This has never had a bad effect on Russian-Indian relations, which are of a trusting nature, so New Delhi can be sure that our relations with China will not be turned against India,” Nikita Mendkovich believes.
In addition, no one is preventing Moscow from pulling New Delhi into this process of governance. And here the main obstacle is not the Chinese, but the Indians themselves, who are still trying to play multi-vector diplomacy.
This article originally appeared in Russian at vz.ru