China will set a record for liquefied gas imports in 2024

By Rhod Mackenzie

China is forecasting record high imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) this year. The largest energy company in the Middle Kingdom, PetroChina, believes that this year the record, which was set in 2021 and amounts to 78.8 million tons, will fall. In 2022, due to the conflict in Ukraine and the energy crisis, LNG imports to China decreased for the first time, reaching 71.2 million tons. However, this year, according to Zhang Yaoyu, who heads the LNG and new energy sources department at PetroChina International, it could reach 80 million tons.
"Based on the data for the first quarter, it appears that this level is achievable," Zhang was quoted as saying by Reuters.

If the calculations of PetroChina economists prove accurate, this will represent an annual increase in LNG imports of 12%. In February, for instance, the monthly record for LNG imports was broken (6.648 million tons). It is worth noting that winter in Asia as a whole was relatively mild. Consequently, by the beginning of spring, there was a surplus of gas in storage facilities, which led to a decline in demand and a further decline in prices.

It is not surprising that natural gas imports in January-April 2024 increased by 21% year on year, according to Bloomberg, and coal imports by 13%. China is also increasing imports of coal and natural gas this year. The gas rush is mainly explained by low gas prices, which in the first four months of this year are approximately 50% lower than prices in January-April 2023. The average price of LNG in the first quarter of this year was just over $9 per million British thermal units (MBTU) ($315 per thousand cubic metres), while in the first quarter of last year, 1 MMBtu in northern Asia cost $18.