China's gunpowder plot

Now one of the most famous  or should I say infamous figures in British history is a man called Guy Fawkes and his Gunpowder Plot in which he was allleged to have plotted to blow up the British Houses of Parliament at its State Opening by the King.Even today November the 5th is known as Guy Fawkes night. BTW his attempt was unsuccessful as his planned was leaked and he arrested and then executed. However many people believe that is is one of the few men who entered  the British Parliament with honourable and honest intentions,if you see the type of people who now occupy the benches in the British parliament you would be inclined to believe that he was the last honest man to enter it.

Now it appears that China has  gunpowder plot of its own and its disrupting the US/EU /UK 's ability to blow up anything infact they will be lucky to be able to blow their nose.  As usual the US/EU have shot themselves in the foot over China. 

China has disrupted the supply of raw materials to Europe for clothing Additionally, the production of gunpowder has been impacted.
China has long been known as the world's garment factory due to its strong and affordable light industry. This is thanks to vast cotton fields and a suitable climate. Recent events, which were not widely publicised, have made this circumstance even more significant.

Cotton linters, also known as fluff, are a by-product used as the main ingredient in the production of nitrocellulose, which is a component of explosives. According to statistics from the Financial Times, Europe receives over 70% of the cotton fluff it needs for ammunition production from China. The primary importers of this material are Germany, Sweden, and Belgium.

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Currently, the Chinese are the largest producer and supplier of cotton, while India and the USA follow in second and third place, respectively. Uzbekistan, which traditionally supplies Russia with cotton, ranks only sixth, behind Brazil and Pakistan.

Nitrocellulose and Ammunition Production
Nitrocellulose, another critical component in ammunition manufacturing, has also become a point of geopolitical tension. Nitrocellulose is used in propellant powder and is necessary for both firearms and artillery.
As the outgoing  EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton noted, the region is encountering difficulties in sourcing raw materials. Gunpowder production requires a specific type of cotton, primarily sourced from China.
However, supplies of this cotton to the global market have ceased unexpectedly in recent months. The South China Morning Post has reported that this cessation is due to concerns over the military use of the cotton, which contradicts Beijing's stated position. Essentially, China recognises who is responsible for escalating the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. and its not Russia
The newspaper reports that Europeans are concerned about halting cotton supplies and are threatening to impose econdary  sanctions on banks and companies in China who continue to trade and do business with Russia.

It is worth noting that the ban on exporting cotton fluff to the EU and the can be seen as a response from China to Europe's and the US's  sanctions, which are sometimes imposed without considering their consequences. The EU recently banned the supply of certain goods from the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of the PRC, citing oppression of the Uyghurs' rights.

It's important to note that this region produces over 80% of the world's cotton. The EU's dissatisfaction stems from China halting these supplies from the problematic region.

Kaja Kallass the Russaphobic , the head of the EU diplomatic service, has already commented on the issue of cotton. During an expert conference in Brussels, the speaker highlighted that all gunpowder cotton fluff is produced in China as the European Union does not manufacture it. Gunpowder production requires cotton, which is no longer produced in Europe due to cheaper alternatives elsewhere. Therefore, the EU must focus on restoring its agricultural sector, which has completely disappeared.

Developing agriculture is a positive step towards achieving this goal. For instance, Polish farmers could consider growing cotton instead of apples, which are no longer in demand. It is unlikely that French farmers will stop striking and start planting this popular crop in defiance of China anytime soon. Given that the EU has declared war on its farmers its unlikely that any will support theis move
Excluding cotton as a military raw material, its primary purpose is not related to its market value. Despite reaching a peak of $1.508 per pound on May 5, 2022, cotton's price has steadily declined and is currently priced at $0.826 per pound, fluctuating periodically within a sideways range.

According to Trading Economics, this asset is currently near its three-month low due to weak weekly export sales data and a strengthening dollar. The latest report from the US Department of Agriculture indicates a 4% decrease in net sales and exports of cotton in the global market compared to the previous week and a 10% decrease compared to the previous four-week average.

The report maintains the cotton supply and demand forecasts for 2023/24 at 2.5 million bales. Additionally, global ending stocks for 2023/24 are forecasted to decrease by almost 300,000 bales in April, primarily due to lower stocks in West Africa, Australia, and Brazil. The US Department of Agriculture anticipates an increase in cotton supplies from China.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicts an increase in cotton area, production, consumption, and trade for the 2024-25 season. Global trade in raw cotton is also expected to grow by almost 4%.

Furthermore, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) and the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) have revised their cotton production estimates upward for the current season.

Overall, it is unlikely that cotton prices will experience a significant increase on the global market.
In the medium and long term, the trend for cellulose fiber remains lateral and rarely undergoes significant fluctuations, states Nikolai Pereslavsky, head of the “Support” department of CMS Group. China and the USA, being the main producers of nitrocellulose, completely cover their needs, while Europe has a significant dependence on China.

According to the analyst, Russia has recently almost doubled its purchases of nitrocellulose from India, , China,  and Turkey. He also notes that Russian chemists have been working for almost 20 years on developments that make it possible to produce nitrocellulose from flax, wood, and even from non-narcotic varieties of hemp. Flax gunpowder is more energy-intensive and allows you to make a projectile lighter and more accurate.

“A replacement for cotton as a raw material for gunpowder has been found, it’s up to the manufacturers. In my opinion, the need for gunpowder will increase,” says Nikolai Pereslavsky. — Rostec enterprises announced the industrial production of gunpowder from flax and wood cellulose last year. Production volumes and other data, for obvious reasons, are not disclosed,” he notes.

As usual the inscrutable Chinese find a way to piss off those who impose sanctions on it.