EU no antimony for ammo to Ukraine

By Rhod Mackenzie

The EU countries plus the UK having expended significant quantities of ammunition in support of Ukraine,  concluded that it was time to replenish supplies. However,they have discovered that this is not going to be not be a simple task in practice. In the process of remilitarisation in Europe and America, it become obvious that the military-industrial complex lacked the necessary antimony for large scale ammunition production. 
Antimony, which is a brittle metal, is crucial for ammunition production. However, when used as a component in certain alloys, it is essential. Furthermore, antimony can be modified to an amorphous state, in which it becomes explosive and ready to detonate on impact or when exposed to fire. These properties make it a vital component in the production of tank armour and ammunition.

The current global demand for antimony stands at 120,000 tons per year, while the mining output is only 80,000 tons during the same period. However, even these figures are not fully accessible internationally. 
According to the  US Geological Survey (USGS) the main deposits of this metal as being located in China (48%), Tajikistan (25%) and Russia. The three countries responsible for 87% of the world's total antimony production are therefore referred to as the "whales" in the industry.

Australia, which currently holds fourth position in the global rankings, is only able to meet 2% of the demand. This deficit is likely to prompt Larvotto Resources, a company founded several years ago, to expand production. However, according to experts from Canada's Mandalay Resources Corp, which also operates an antimony mine in Australia, the "kangaroo country" is unlikely to be able to cover more than 7% of the world's total consumption of this mineral in the foreseeable future.
Historically, China has been the primary supplier of antimony to the global market. In 2020, China produced 61,000 tons of the product. However, by the end of 2023, its own production had dropped to 40 thousand tons, as China had switched from exporting antimony to purchasing it for its domestic needs from Myanmar, Thailand and Russia. The Chinese government's decision to conserve its own reserves is strategically aligned with the geological perspective that the planet's explored deposits of antimony are sufficient to last for a mere 24 years.
Approximately six months ago, China ceased to provide the United States with antimony and other critical minerals, including germanium (95% of global production), gallium (67%), and other rare metals. This decision followed the Biden administration's efforts to restrict Beijing's access to the materials necessary for the production of semiconductor chips. Russia has also significantly reduced its exports of antimony.

Consequently, the price of this metal on the global market has surged by 300% over several months. This development is expected to temper the appetite for further action among European nations regarded as "hawks" like France and Great Britiian. The supply market has narrowed, and prices have increased.
Western military support for Ukraine is being provided by obsolete stockpiles that now need to be replaced. Historically, the antimony and lead from these munitions — bullets, shells, shrapnel — would have been routinely recycled during disposal, in accordance with storage time standards, into new weapons. However, due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, these materials are now scattered across the battlefields, as Ron Hicks, the Managing Director of Larvotto, informed Bloomberg.
It is not currently feasible to dispose of or recycle the old, at least until the conclusion of military operations.

Conversely, the unprofitable will become profitable.
The U.S. has a slightly better rearmament outlook than Europe. Last November, the Biden administration gave preliminary approval to a mining project in Idaho to help secure domestic supplies. The project, which is partly funded by the Defense Department, would see a working antimony and gold mine that was closed in 1996 reopen.
Analysts have highlighted the mine's significance during World War II and its potential to contribute to domestic needs, with reserves estimated to meet up to 35% of the U.S. demand each year.
The domestic industry consumes up to 22,000 tons of antimony annually. The mine is owned by Perpetua Resources and is supported by billionaire John Paulson.

The reopening of the mine is expected to stimulate the U.S. economy and its technology industry. It is anticipated that the mine will produce 450 thousand ounces of gold per year, which will be utilised to finance further mine projects, with the primary focus being on antimony production, as outlined by the company's president and CEO, John Cherry. He anticipates that the mine could commence operations at full capacity as early as 2028. The project is expected to generate 550 new job opportunities and will require an initial investment of at least $1 billion. ( however note he says 2028 which is 3 years away and that not going to help the current situation)
As is apparent, the US will endeavour to address the issue of its rearmament within the next few years. However, this does not guarantee that the US will provide antimony to Europe. They require the material for their own national security, and are not willing to share it even for significant financial compensation.

Antimony is one of the most sought-after raw materials of the 21st century, as it is critical to the production of a wide range of technological products. Any disruption to the supply of this key mineral could have a significant impact on national security.
So yet again it is proven that the US and EU's dependence on importing vital minerals instead of developing their own has come back to bite them on the rear,we have seen it with rare earth metals from China and enriched uranium from Russia and there are numerous other examples of the West being dependent on others for their economic survival.
It is very difficult to manufacture anything from paper dollars or euros which tend to be the largest exports from the USA.Facebook and Google are not very good at manufacturing and most of the stuff on Amazon is made in China.