By Rhod Mackenzie
The European Union is looking at the adoption of a new package of sanctions against Russia by the end of 2023 . This was reported by the EU Foreign Service. The association is already preparing the 12th list of measures. However, according to the MEPs, there are no specifics yet, and much will depend, among other things, on the results of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which currently does not bring the results they expected . At the same time, tougher pressure on the Russian Federation is inevitable - apart from the supply of weapons to Kiev, this is the only way to demonstrate their support for Ukraine , the EP notes. What can be included in the next package of measures?
Sanction itch
The European Commission does not rule out tougher anti - Russian sanctions before the end of this year . The official representative of the EU foreign policy service, Peter Stano said , Brussels is looking at allowing the introduction of the 12th package of sanctions as early as the end of 2023.
“Additional sanctions are always possible if the Kremlin escalates the situation further,” Stano said, when asked about new measures before the end of the year.
On July 24, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, accused Russia of allegedly deliberate attacks on granaries and using food "as a weapon." Moscow, on the other hand, explained that the purpose of the strikes of the Russian Armed Forces was not Ukrainian grain, but the places of deployment and replenishment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with Western weapons .
According to Dmitry Polyansky, the Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN, under the guise of a grain deal, Kiev managed to accumulate "significant military-industrial, fuel and storage capacities" in the areas of its Black Sea ports . With the termination of the deal, Russia had the opportunity to clean them up . So, on July 23, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced missile attacks on the places of production and training of drone boats in the Odessa region. According to the department, there were foreign mercenaries at the affected facilities.
However, the introduction of another package of sanctions against the Russian Federation is only a matter of time , said French MEP Thierry Mariani. He also confirmed that the 12th package could be adopted before the end of this year.
— I think it would be logical. Since the EU refused to send troops, the only way to show that it supports Ukraine is to send some more weapons and increase the sanctions ,” Mariani said.
According to the politician, the Europeans are aware that the effect of these measures is not strong enough, and they are largely needed to demonstrate solidarity with Kiev. Sending ammunition and new pieces of equipment is becoming increasingly difficult for Western countries, he added.
“We have seen in the past that it takes two to five months to introduce new sanctions. So far, there is nothing concrete on the council's table . Much will depend on the outcome of the Ukrainian offensive,” Beck told Izvestia.
For the first time, the 12th package of sanctions was discussed at the end of June. They were announced by representatives of the Baltic states and Poland . On June 23, the Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Piotr Wawrzyk said that Warsaw would like to "eliminate four elements that provide large financial resources for Russia."
True, the Pole did not specify what he meant. Nevertheless, according to him, Poland plans to seek restrictions in the field of Russian nuclear energy . By the way, at the end of June, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda called on the EU to impose sanctions against Rosatom. Prior to this, such measures were actively opposed by France, Hungary, and Bulgaria. Among other things, they are concerned about failures in the supply of nuclear fuel.
Another goal of possible sanctions is the import of Russian diamonds . Poland recognizes that this will have to overcome the Belgian veto. After all, Antwerp, the world's diamond capital, remains the largest buyer of diamonds from the Russian Federation. Up to 80% of the world's rough diamonds pass through the city's exchanges. According to the trade association Antwerp World Diamond Center, about 1.7 thousand companies and 4.5 thousand dealers buy and sell diamonds in this city. “If it was possible, for example, to convince the Italians and Greeks to close the ports, then, probably, in this case, it will finally be possible to work out a solution acceptable to everyone,” Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Piotr Wawrzyk said on June 23. Earlier, the Belgian leadership stated that the country is generally ready to support the introduction of additional restrictions on Russian diamonds.
However, it is still difficult to talk about the exact content of the possible 12th package of sanctions. MEP Gunnar Beck emphasizes that restrictions against Rosatom, sanctions against the banking sector, further actions regarding frozen assets in the EU, as well as increased restrictions against third countries involved in parallel imports of goods are being discussed in Brussels .
There is no understanding of what a possible new package of sanctions may include, and in the analyst community. The Professor of the Department of World Economy and International Economic Relations of the State University of Management Galina Sorokina does not exclude that EU restrictions may even include bans on the import of Russian grain.
Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Ivan Timofeev believes that Moscow should prepare for a gradual tightening of the sanctions regime.
— Russia should, by definition, proceed from the worst-case scenario and act accordingly , not hoping that a cautious line will prevail there. Our government is doing it. Even before the start of the CBO, the financial sector did a lot to ensure that the system was protected ,” the analyst told Izvestia.
Despite the sanctions imposed last year, the Russian economy has shown resilience and weathered the blow as it prepared for the worst-case scenario, the analyst concluded.