European airlines have cut the majority of their flights to Asia
Looking at the winter schedules of European airlines and its obvious that they have accepted defeat and realised they cannot now compete with Chinese,Indian and Middle East Airlines on flights to China,Japan and South Korea,plus Korean and Japanese also not able to compete on the routes to Europe.
The mutual ban on the use of airspace by Russia and the EU, along with the US, Britain and Canada, has resulted in a significant loss of market share for European airlines to China. Their share of routes to this country has decreased from 42% to 23%, with a the decline expected to continue. It also affects Korean and Japanese airlines trying to reach Europe
The transition of airlines around the world to winter schedules has resulted in a significant reduction in flights by European carriers to China. According to a report from Aviation Week, citing data from British consulting company OAG, while Chinese airlines have increased their capacity on routes to Europe by more than 26%, European airlines have cut their capacity by 48.5%.
Now anyone with even a basic knowledge of geography knows that Russia is the largest country in the world, its land mass is larger than the USA and Canada combined, it stretches from the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Ocean and has 11 different time zones, the distance between Moscow and Vladivostok is 5,603 miles, to put this in perspective the distance between London and Los Angeles including the Atlantic Ocean is only 5,400 miles.
Plus to use the old phrase 'as the crow flies' airlines use the same principle and try to use the shortest route between two points and if you take Russia, yes crows can fly across Russia but now not all airlines.
When the US and EU introduced their 'shock and awe' sanctions, they intended to use them as a weapon to destroy the Russian economy and bring the country to its knees.
One of the measures they introduced was a ban on all Russian flights into EU airspace, and the US introduced a similar ban. This obviously stopped all Russian flights to Europe and all air passenger traffic.
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The most significant reduction was observed in the case of Finland's national carrier, Finnair, which reduced its capacity by nearly 90%. Scandinavian SAS has reduced its capacity on routes to China by almost two-thirds, while other airlines, including Dutch KLM, Swiss and German Lufthansa, have cut their capacity by approximately more than half.
Furthermore, prior to the transition to the winter schedule, British Airways and Virgin Atlantic, two major British airlines, announced reductions in flights to China. The former reduced its capacity on the Chinese route by almost 40% and has not scheduled any flights to Beijing until at least November 2025. The latter has cancelled its only flight to mainland China.
As is the case with other UK carriers, we are unable to use Russian airspace. "This results in significantly longer flight times, which also have commercial implications," British Airways stated (quoted by Aviation Week). Similarly, Virgin Atlantic highlighted the same challenges. "Following a period of careful consideration, we have made the difficult decision to suspend our services from London Heathrow to Shanghai, a route that we have proudly served since 1999. "The significant challenges and complexities on this route have contributed to this commercial decision" (quoted by Aviation Week). Consequently, the London-Shanghai market is now served by four airlines, three of which are Chinese.
The withdrawal of European airlines from the air transport market to China and other countries in Southeast Asia can be attributed to a number of factors. The economic efficiency of all flights from Northern European airports to destinations such as Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Tokyo,Seoul and some cities in Southeast Asia was largely dependent on the use of Russian airspace.
Furthermore, there are numerous cross-polar routes (from SEA via the North Pole), such as the one from Hong Kong to Toronto. Utilising these routes has the potential to reduce travel time by several hours, thereby offering significant cost and efficiency savings. In total, Aeroflot, the national carrier of Russia, used to receive over $500 million in unused commercial rights, known as trans-Siberian payments, for flights of foreign airlines over Siberia in the most profitable years.
Following the mutual ban on the use of airspace in spring 2022, foreign companies were forced to spend significant sums on alternative routes. The Russian Ministry of Transport estimates that these costs reached $37.5 million per week, or $1.95 billion per year, for those that used to fly over Russian airspace.
To illustrate, Finnair's previous flight from Helsinki to Shanghai took less than nine hours; the current flight duration is now over 12 hours. In the case of European airlines' flights from London to Shanghai, the current duration is approximately over one hour and a half longer than before the closure of the airspace, with the return flight taking two hours and half longer.
Furthermore, the duration of Lufthansa's flight from Frankfurt to Beijing has increased by two hours due to the necessity of flying around Russia.
The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reports that this is in stark contrast to the flight time on the Frankfurt-Beijing route of Chinese airlines, which is only 9.5 hours. SCMP journalists have calculated that the average cost of a flight for a passenger in economy on a Chinese airline on this route will be 200 euros less than on a European carrier. In general, according to Aviation Week, China Eastern offers the lowest fares on routes from Frankfurt to Tokyo and Bangkok with a stopover in Shanghai. Furthermore, Air China's economy class fares are among the most competitive on routes to Manila and Seoul with a stopover in Shanghai.
This has resulted in a notable expansion of the market share held by Chinese airlines. In the five years since, their market share has grown significantly, according to Aviation Week, from approximately 58% to nearly 77%.
In anticipation of this scenario, Air France-KLM CEO Benjamin Smith proposed this spring that airlines flying over Russian territory be banned from landing in Europe. However, the EU authorities are unlikely to give that proposal their approval.
"In fact, European airlines essentially have two possible scenarios. The first option is to accept the loss of market share and focus on individual routes to China, where they can ensure sufficient occupancy of their flights. "The second option is to exert pressure on EU authorities to restrict access to the airspace of EU countries bordering Russia for all airlines, including Chinese ones," said Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the Aviaport agency, in an interview with Expert. Otherwise, they will be forced to exit the Chinese market.
However, there is an alternative course of action available: to reverse the decision to close EU airspace to flights by Russian airlines. This will enable Russia to lift a comparable prohibition, thus allowing European airlines to reinstate their presence in the Chinese market.