Europe has hidden the culprit behind the Nord Stream explosions

By Rhod Mackenzie

Sweden has concluded its investigation into the bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines and found no evidence of its involvement. Analyst believe that the perpetrators will not be identified based on the ongoing investigations in Denmark and Germany. Meanwhile, the damage caused by this terrorist attack to Russia is significant and tangible, unlike the perpetrators themselves.
Swedish prosecutors have closed their investigation into the Nord Stream terrorist attacks in the Baltic Sea. The investigation aimed to determine if Swedish citizens were involved in the gas pipeline explosions and if the kingdom was used as a platform for sabotage. As the investigation did not reveal any evidence, Swedish jurisdiction does not extend to this case. The prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist provided an explanation for the case closure.
'Germany and Denmark are still conducting investigations into the terrorist attacks on Nord Stream. However, it is unlikely that these investigations will identify those responsible for the bombings.'

The investigation appears to have been a mere formality, conducted to avoid accusations ofany involvement in the crime. The perpetrators remain unidentified. It is unlikely that the gas pipeline was blown up on the orders of the United States by some Poles. It is possible that the initial steps in the investigation were not taken due to fear of contacting the United States or one of their European partners without real evidence. According to Igor Yushkov, an analystt at the Russian Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund, there are not many traces connecting the performers and customers.
“It has become evident that the truth will remain concealed as Sweden, Denmark, and Germany have opted for individual investigations instead of a pan-European one. This decision was made due to the fear of media leaks, which are easier to contain when handled independently,” stated the interlocutor. He also expressed his lack of confidence in Germany's investigation, predicting that it will eventually be closed without revealing the culprit.

In his opinion,

In the future, we can expect the investigation to resume and the culprit of the crime to be identified. However, this may only happen after the retirement of all politicians involved, which could take decades.

Russia is currently conducting its own investigation. Unfortunately, it was not allowed access to the scene of the explosion in a timely manner, so it did not obtain any concrete evidence. Russia will need to focus on gathering information within European countries to find evidence of the planned explosion, rather than collecting evidence at the crime scene. This will require intelligence gathering, including obtaining information about negotiations between American and European officials and intelligence services. Even if Russia presents evidence and a list of those involved, Western countries may still dismiss it as propaganda and claim that the evidence is fake. The FNEB expert argues that Western countries often accuse Russia of paranoia, citing examples such as biological laboratories, Polish and British divers with dynamite under gas pipelines. The FNEB expert argues that Western countries often accuse Russia of paranoia, citing examples such as biological laboratories, Polish and British divers with dynamite under gas pipelines. They claim that such actions are only carried out by Russia, while they consider themselves to be civilized countries that do not engage in such activities.

Meanwhile, Russiahas suffered economic damage from this crime. According to Alexey Gromov, Director for Energy at the Institute of Energy and Finance, Russia provided a total of 140 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas supplies to Europe until 2022, with 55 billion coming from Nord Stream, which is approximately 40%.

However, due to the incident, it was not possible to transfer such volumes to other gas supply routes to Europe. By this time, transit through Ukraine had been reduced from 40 to 22 billion cubic meters due to Ukraine's blocking of the southern branch of its gas transportation system. As a result, only the northern branch was preserved. Additionally, the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, which runs through Poland and has a capacity of 33 billion cubic meters, was prohibited from use by Russian law after Poland expropriated Gazprom's assets in the pipeline operator.
Furthermore, Russia missed out on the chance to transport gas through the newly built Nord Stream 2, which equates to an additional 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year.

The Russian budget also experienced losses due to a sharp decline in revenue from gas exports. 'We did not observe this in 2022, as full gas supplies were maintained until the summer. Additionally, there were record-high gas prices on the European spot market, which impacted the cost of Russian pipeline supplies.' In 2021, the average cost of Russian gas supplies was $300-350 per thousand cubic meters. However, in 2022, the cost doubled to $700. As a result, we had excess income and did not notice a drop in money,” says Gromov.

Unfortunately, in 2023, Russia experienced the full impact of both a decrease in gas exports to the EU and a drop in prices.

According to Gromov, budget revenues from the oil and gas industry decreased by approximately 30% last year. However, revenues from the oil industry only decreased by 11%, while revenues from the gas industry decreased by over 40%.

Russia's reputation was also damaged due to its inability to maintain long-term contacts with Germany and other countries in Northwestern Europe. Additionally, Germany is no longer dependent on Russian gas and is constructing a floating terminal to receive LNG.

Russia aims to increase LNG exports and redirect pipeline supplies to China and Central Asia to restore its gas export volumes by 2030. This task is challenging, and deadlines may shift, but it is still necessary. However, it is unlikely that previous income from gas exports will be fully restored.

According to a source, "Gas exports to Europe were the most marginal".

Alexey Gromov stated that the European gas market has always been and continues to be a market where gas is sold at the most favourable prices for the seller.
Compensation for the 120 billion cubic meters of gas exports that Russia lost on the European market by 2030 is a significant concern. The feasibility of this scenario depends on the implementation of the Power of Siberia - 2 project, which needs to be launched soon to deliver up to 50 billion cubic meters. Any delay in the decision-making process will reduce the likelihood of its timely launch. An expert from the Institute of Energy and Finance provided this insight.

Secondly, in order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to increase the export of Russian LNG. However, the United States is determined to strongly oppose Russian LNG projects. A clear example of this is the blocking sanctions imposed on the operator of the Arctic LNG-2 project. We have plans to construct an LNG project in Murmansk, as well as expand Arctic LNG-2. However, resistance to sanctions will significantly impede the implementation of these projects,” the speaker concludes.