By Sergey Manukov
The energy crisis in Europe and the spiral of rising electricity prices that it unleashed hit hardest of all, as you might guess, the most energy-intensive industries. Added to the energy crisis is rising prices associated with the "green" transition - the replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy sources, in which the Europeans are leading. First of all, the threat looms over European automakers and manufacturers of chemicals and goods, which are increasingly inferior in competition to Chinese and overseas counterparts.
“We are in a dangerous situation,” Jacques Vandermeyren, director of the Belgian port of Antwerp-Bruges, one of the largest ports in the Old World, said in an interview with Bloomberg at the Salzburg summit. “For the European economy, serious problems in the chemical industry and the invasion of the continent by Chinese electric vehicles are doubly dangerous. Europe is in for a very difficult decade.”
The pessimism of Jacques Vandermeyren has good reasons. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) once again raised its key rate by a quarter percent, marking the ninth rate hike. The head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, does not rule out the possibility of a rate hike in September.
High electricity prices put a very strong pressure on the European chemical industry, which, in turn, negatively affects the volume of cargo transported by sea. In early July, the world's largest chemical company, BASF SE, for example, joined peers in lowering their 2023 forecasts this summer. Naturally, they do this not from a good life. The reasons are the same for everyone - both global production and demand for consumer goods and products are declining.
According to Jacques Vandermeyren, the decline in the European chemical industry in January-April this year alone amounted to 13% in annual terms. Such a significant decline greatly increases the threat of chemical production shifting to other continents or even closure.
“In the next phase, plants and factories will begin to close,” prophesies Jacques Vandermeyren. “The competitiveness of the European chemical sector is in grave danger.”
Vandermeiren stressed that only maritime transport of cars has more or less recovered this year, but the trouble for Europeans is that this was not due to the export of the European car industry, but mainly due to a sharp increase in imports of Chinese electric vehicles to the continent. It is a little pleasing, according to him, that the import of the Chinese car industry has begun to decline in recent weeks, but again, not because of the low popularity of electric cars from China in Europe, but simply because there is not enough transport capacity to deliver them. Moreover, not only cargo ships are lacking, but also port facilities.
“The Chinese are very disappointed that European ports are not able to accept all the electric vehicles that they are ready to deliver,” explains Jacques Vandermeyren. “However, they can partially blame themselves, because they transport them in containers on container ships, which is not the most efficient way to export cars.
This article originally appeared in Russian at expert.ru