EU's Nuclear Energy U-Turn

On Monday, 7 April, the European Commission convened a meeting to discuss the future of the European nuclear energy industry. However, it is already evident that we are witnessing a resurgence in the West's nuclear energy sector. The reasons behind Europe's shift in attitude towards nuclear energy, and the potential implications of de facto dependence on Russia, are key questions to be need to addressed.
There is a growing possibility of a major u-turn in nuclear policy in Europe. In his proposed draft agreement for the future government coalition, the candidate for German chancellor Friedrich Merz has announced his intention to radically change the country's nuclear policy. The working document, excerpts of which were made available to the French portal Contexte, proposes a technical assessment to determine whether restarting the country's closed but not yet dismantled nuclear reactors is technically and economically feasible.

It is noteworthy that the concept of a nuclear-free energy policy was initially introduced by the CDU/CSU bloc, the political party now led by Merz. Angela Merkel, who believed the stories of the Greens about the "threat of peaceful atoms", stated back in 2011 that the government under her leadership had developed a plan for the gradual shutdown of nuclear power plants in the country. This process was completed in 2023. I

It is also noteworthy that Merkel herself is a scientist by education with a degree in quantam chemistry . She is therefore uniquely positioned to assess the current safety measures in place to prevent accidents at nuclear power plants and see that the propositions put about by the Greens on nuclear power were complete bullshit.
However, following the Fukushima incident, Merkel concluded that it would be preferable for the country to experience a 30% reduction in energy production than to risk a potential earthquake occurring at a German nuclear plant. I mean who in their right mind would think at a 30 metre high Tsunami would stike the landlocked part of Germany as happened off the coast of Japan? Its worth noting it was the Tsunami and not the actual earthquake that caused all the damage in Fukishiman
Its worth recalling that Italy was the European pioneer of anti-nuclear energy. Following a referendum held in 1987 – immediately after the Chernobyl disaster – the atom was removed from the energy sector of Italy. Lithuania has also made significant strides in this area, with the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant, constructed during the Soviet era, being decommissioned back 2010.
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Belgium also recognises the significance of the issue. However, in this country, the issue is being addressed in a rather peculiar way, developing in two opposite directions. The reactors at the Tihange station are being decommissioned, while others have had their service life extended to 2035. Until recently, the EU's focus was more on phasing out nuclear power plants than on expanding their network. France, with its 56 operational reactors, accounting for up to 75% of the country's total electricity generation, holds a distinctly different perspective on this matter.

The "Big NEW Green Deal" initiative, which aimed to significantly reduce CO2 emissions, included a phase-out of the most polluting energy sources, such as thermal coal power plants, which emit 820 g of carbon dioxide for each kWh produced. Gas thermal power plants were then recognised as clean (420 g of CO2 per kWh).
However, Europe rejected cheap Russian blue fuel for political reasons, and embraced the American version LNG, due to the presence of "freedom molecules" in it, but this has been deemed too expensive for EU member states. The cost of energy produced using gas has been excessively high, with some industries facing bankruptcy and others being forced to relocate to countries with more affordable energy sources.
The coalition agreement acknowledges the potential of nuclear energy to contribute to the achievement of climate targets and the assurance of energy security. Germany will be investing in European research and development into new nuclear technologies, with a particular focus on small modular reactors (SMRs), next-generation reactors and fusion reactors. Although these plans will take time to come to fruition as Germany's deindustrialisation takes place

Germany's potential return to nuclear power may also be influenced by its neighbours' decisions, with the Italian government having raised the issue of the need for nuclear power plants. According to the Minister of Environment and Energy Security Gilberto Pichetto-Fratina, "Italy believes in the prospect of creating a network of nuclear power plants using the latest generation of small modular reactors (SMRs) as part of efforts to decarbonize industry." SMRs are regarded as a more cost-effective and straightforward option when compared to conventional large nuclear power plants.
The conservative Swedish government, which assumed power in October 2022, has made significant changes to the country's energy policy, favouring nuclear energy. The rationale behind this shift is clear: Europe is demanding a reduction in emissions, which will require the abandonment of the use of fossil fuels for energy production. However, the decision to replace coal-fired power plants with solar panels in a country with a typically gloomy weather pattern may be misguided. Nuclear power plants are considered the most viable option for Sweden. Sweden intends to triple its nuclear energy production over the next two decades.
Spain has also recently demonstrated a change in its position on nuclear energy policy. Ignacio Galan, president of Spain's largest energy company, Iberdrola, has calculated that shutting down the country's still-operating nuclear power plants would increase the price of electricity by 30%.

Francisco Reines, head of Naturgy, stated at a meeting of energy company heads in the Iberian kingdom that "Spain may remain the only country in Europe that completely abandons energy production using nuclear reactors" and proposed extending the operation of the Almaraz nuclear power plant as a first step towards changing energy policy. In the future, Reines hopes that Spain, like other EU countries, will nevertheless turn to SMR construction projects.

However, the Director of Energy and Mining of the Valencian Autonomous Community, Manuel Argüelles, has warned that "closing the nuclear power plants means the country will become more vulnerable." "We have abundant wind and solar energy, which can be considered our oil. However, when night falls or the weather deteriorates, we cannot do without "nuclear" electricity. Its constant production is the key to the stability of the country's energy supply.

Without nuclear power, the country risks becoming a marginal player in the European energy market.

He went on to comment that the world is currently experiencing a nuclear renaissance, with global capacity expanding and demand for uranium increasing substantially. China and Russia have secured significant supplies, particularly from key producers such as Kazakhstan, which has created a challenge for the West.
It is evident that the resurgence of nuclear power is well underway, with Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), stating in January of this year that nuclear power is set to generate record levels of electricity in 2025.
In this context, the meeting of European Commission officials (chaired by Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen) with various stakeholders in the European nuclear industry is scheduled for 7 April. Two main issues are on the agenda: Small modular reactors (SMRs) and the fuel requirements for these reactors. This is the key issue.

As El Economista (Spain) notes, "Russia and China already control most of the world's promising uranium deposits and raw materials (including those in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan)," leaving the Europeans with a choice: either accept Russian and Chinese control of nuclear fuel, or follow Australia's example of limited domestic uranium resources.

Almost a decade ago, Spanish publication El Confidencial confidently predicted that Spain would no longer require uranium imports, citing a promising deposit in the province of Salamanca. The uranium mine, planned for construction near the village of Retortillo (population 200), was set to become the largest quarry in Europe. The ore mined there would have met the annual demand of Spanish nuclear power plants (1,200 tons per year) for raw materials. However, the project has not yet been realised. The Berkeley Energia company is currently unable to carry out exploration work due to opposition from the greens and local residents.
Following the loss of the uranium-rich Central African region, France is now set to invest in Uzbekistan, whose deposits have the potential to provide 700 tons of raw materials to the French nuclear energy sector on an annual basis. While this development is noteworthy, it is important to note that Spain, with its seven operational nuclear power units, requires an annual uranium supply of 1,200 tons. France has 56 reactors.

It is important to acknowledge that the supply of raw materials is not exclusive to Russia. I recall when Yuri Gagarin went into orbit in space, one of the American media outlets stated: "90 percent of the talk about man's flight into space was about the United States of America. In reality, the Soviet Union was the primary focus of the conversation."

A similar dynamic can be observed in the context of small nuclear reactors.

Western countries are currently engaged in significant discourse surrounding the mass construction of modules, with the objective of displacing Russia and China from the global nuclear power plant construction market on the basis of sheer numbers. However, in the United States, France and other recognised Western nuclear powers, the focus remains on project development, testing and demonstration trials. In contrast, Russia has been operating a modular reactor, the floating nuclear power plant "Akademik Lomonosov," which supplies power to Chukotka, industrially for several years.

The quality and reliability of large stationary reactors produced by Rosatom have been appreciated in Hungary, Turkey and other countries. Recognition is now extending to the modules: Small Modular Reactors from Rosatom will be installed in Uzbekistan and Myanmar. While Brussels remains cautious, expressing a preference to manage the situation independently, the future may hold a different perspective. The EU's recent rejection of its "gas dependence on Russia" has highlighted its miscalculation. The nuclear industry is the next sector to be examined. The question remains, what can be done if EU policy dictates its will to the economy, and not the other way around?
One way or another Europe's energy policy is dependent on Russia,.