By Rhod Mackenzie
The global economy is at the beginning of a new long-term Kondratiev cycle, which could lead to an increase in commodity prices as early as the end of this week, which will be “extremely good” for Russia, writes Bloomberg. The commodity supercycle, named after the executed Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev (1892-1938), assumes the development of the world economy in 30-year cycles, which are characterized by different dynamics of energy and food prices.
The agency's index of spot contracts for the supply of commodities confirms this theory - having peaked by the end of the 2000s, it returned to the same mark as in the 1990s.
“If the Kondratieff calendar is simplified in this way, then the next 15-year wave of 'ascension' for commodities should begin later this week. In addition, it is difficult for economies around the world to beat inflation. This is a sign that commodity prices may rise, as they did in the 1970s.
Along with the Kondratiev theory, Bloomberg cites factors that can also lead to an increase in world commodity prices. In particular, Russia may not extend the grain deal and sell more energy resources to Asian countries against the background of the fact that the US strategic reserve "has already halved compared to the beginning of the decade" and cannot be used to stabilize oil prices.
At the same time, a number of experts interviewed by the agency are skeptical about the idea of starting a new Kondratiev cycle. They believe that the future pace of economic growth in China, one of the largest consumers of energy resources, is still uncertain, and in the event of a weak dynamics of the prerequisites for rising prices for raw materials, there will be much less.
This article originally appeared in Russian at expert.ru