Germany seeks salvation from China

By Rhod Mackenzie

The German chancellor Olaf Scholz's trip to China ended with a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The key topics of the negotiations were the conflict in Ukraine and economic cooperation.
The meeting between Olaf Scholz and Xi Jinping focused on resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Thus, the Chinese President proposed four principles to overcome the crisis and achieve a speedy restoration of the world.

According to him, the first priority is to maintain peace and stability and refrain from seeking selfish gain. Xi Jinping referred to the second principle as the need to 'cool the situation,' i.e., to stop adding fuel to the conflict. Xi Jinping's third principle is to create the necessary conditions to restore peace. The fourth principle is to reduce the negative impact of the current situation on the global economy. According to him, it is crucial to prevent the stability of global industrial chains from being undermined.

The Chinese President has also called for an international peace conference to resolve the conflict, which should be recognized by both Russia and Ukraine. Beijing supports and encourages every initiative that contributes to finding solutions to the current confrontation.
Following the negotiations, the German Chancellor wrote on social media that he had asked Xi Jinping to influence Russia's position on the conflict in Ukraine. He believes this is necessary to end hostilities in Eastern Europe.

Despite the statements regarding Ukraine, the trip was largely focused on economic matters. Scholz was accompanied by a significant delegation of businesspeople and executives from large companies. Although the visit program was initially scheduled hour by hour, it did not go according to plan.

Additionally, analysts noted that the chancellor was met by the deputy mayor of Chongqing, who does not hold a party position. Therefore, the European guest received minimal honours. Given the significance of symbolism in Chinese culture, this may be a hint from the Chinese regarding its true attitude towards dialogue with Germany.
During his second day in Shanghai, the chancellor delivered a speech at Tongji University, which was founded in 1907 by the German doctor Erich Paulun, according to Rossiyskaya Gazeta. Additionally, he visited the plant of the German polymer manufacturer Covestro. Scholz's visit concluded with a meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing.

Based on the visit's content, it appears that Scholz intends to maintain cooperation with China despite pressure from the United States. The Europeans had to relinquish their hold on the Russian direction, and they are keen to avoid a similar situation with China. Germany is striving to pursue an independent policy and seeks options that will enable it to maintain ties with China amidst the escalating confrontation between Beijing and Washington,” said Timofey Bordachev, program director of the Valdai Club.

According to Bordachev, each party now has its own interests. Xi acknowledges Germany's significant investment in China, both financially and technologically. Scholz also recognises the importance of maintaining ties with China for the sake of the German economy. Therefore, Bordachev believes that neither party is interested in a dispute with the United States.

However, he does not anticipate any significant progress resulting from Scholz's visit to China. Additionally, the topic of Ukraine was of secondary importance.

During the meeting, the topic was not discussed in depth and the format was incorrect. However, no further discussion took place. The parties agreed that avoiding confrontation is positive and that it is negative when there is confrontation. Bordachev emphasizes that Xi Jinping and Scholz understand that Germany cannot influence this matter.
The German political scientist Alexander Rahr suggests that Scholz's visit to Beijing aims to expand financial ties with China. Rahr notes that the Chinese economy has already overtaken the German economy, intensifying competition between Europe and China. Berlin seeks to establish and strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation in the field of economics and trade, rather than engaging in trade wars that may just be unavoidable in the future. The analyst stated that Germany currently relies more on raw materials and resources from China than on supplies from Russia. Therefore, any deterioration in relations between countries would be disastrous for Germany.

Scholz's second goal during his visit is to convince China to support Western sanctions against Russia. Rahr added that the West is aware that Moscow is gaining new partners in Asia. The political scientist stated that this also contributes to the growth of the Russian economy. However, Scholz lacks the leverage to force Beijing to adopt an anti-Russian policy.

China aims to trade with both the West and Moscow, and it is unlikely that European blackmail or pressure will alter Beijing's stance. Scholz should be aware of this. As the leader of not only Germany but also Europe, Scholz wants to demonstrate to his younger allies in the West that he attempted to persuade the Chinese to oppose Russia.

However, this is a challenging situation for Scholz.

The analyst notes that the United States has refused to provide the same level of assistance as before to Ukraine, leaving the Europeans to their fate. He also believes that Ukraine should not make impudent demands to Washington, as is currently happening with Germany.
“However, Europe cannot solely rely on arming the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is important to consider who will defend Europe if the United States withdraws from the situation. As a result, there is an increasing consensus among Brussels, Berlin, and Paris that the conflict in Ukraine must come to an end. However, as Scholz emphasises, this must not result in a victory for Russia,” explained the political scientist.

“However, Scholz recognises the need to negotiate with Russia. As ties between Europe and Moscow have been severed, the possibility of Chinese neutral peacekeeping is increasing. This is a diplomatic victory for the Chinese,” emphasised Rahr.

Alexey Maslov, director of the Institute of Asian and African Countries at Moscow State University, shares a similar view. The Chancellor required this meeting to provide financial support and establish connections for the German and EU economies. Due to restrictions on Chinese businesses, they did not attend the meeting. Scholz aimed to obtain pro-Ukrainian statements from Xi Jinping in exchange for increased cooperation.

Xi Jinping, on the other hand, seeks access for Chinese automakers to the large European market. Beijing is interested in maintaining scientific and technical contacts with the EU. Additionally, Xi Jinping aims to demonstrate that China is not involved in the conflict,” the source emphasises. “Although Scholz refrained from making critical statements about the situation in Ukraine, the meeting is expected to yield certain economic results. For instance, there is potential for joint projects between Germany and China,” they note.
“From a political perspective, China and Germany have different assessments of this meeting. China is not interested in engaging in military operations anywhere because conflicts can affect the trade and economic interests of the PRC. Germany, however, views this as a shift in Beijing's position. However, this is not the case. China's stance on Ukraine remains unchanged,” Maslov concluded.