By Maria Stroiteleva
The health index of Russian business in the second quarter of 2023 reached 69 points - the value was the highest for the period from 2019 to 2023 . This is stated in a joint study by hh.ru, Tochka Bank and Calltouch (available to Izvestia). The highest rates of recovery were shown by small enterprises - a record 76 points . The business community associates the trend with state support, the ability of small companies to quickly rebuild in new conditions, and also with the release of some niches. Among the difficulties, experts named expensive borrowed funds and a shortage of personnel .
New markets
The health index of Russian business in the Russian Federation has exceeded the pre-pandemic level , follows from an analysis conducted by hh.ru, Tochka and Calltouch. The indicator is calculated based on a formula of nine key indicators, including their recruiting, marketing activities and financial component.
In the second quarter of 2023, it was 69 points, while in the pre-COVID 2019, the indicator was at the level of 52 . In the pandemic 2020, it fell to 50 points, in 2021 it recovered to 63 points, and in 2022, when the special operation began and sanctions were introduced, it dropped slightly to 62.
The relatively small decrease in the index last year is explained by the fact that since the beginning of the SVO, Russian business has received a powerful impetus from the budget , said Ekaterina Avdeeva, head of the Delovaya Rossiya expert center for criminal law policy and enforcement of judicial acts. Now there are two main trends: focus on government orders and scaling , she noted.
In 2023, the best indicator for small businesses. His health index in the II quarter turned out to be six points higher than a year ago (76 vs. 70) . At the same time, medium-sized companies feel worse than before (their score has decreased from 55 to 52 points), the study emphasizes.
“Many entrepreneurs managed to overcome or minimize the consequences of the problems of 2022: find new ways of supply or markets, restore consumer demand, choose new promotion channels. Domestic business is not only recovering, but also demonstrating development and even growth ,” the study notes.
The automotive industry showed the largest increase (+22 points) due to the emergence of a large number of new brands on the market and the development of the market for used cars. The top most dynamically developing sectors also included the tourism industry (+7 points) due to the development of internal movements and transport (+10) due to overcoming dependence on Western suppliers and creating new logistics channels.
The most notable drop is in companies working in the field of fitness and health (-24 points), as well as in medicine (-12 points). This is due to the reduction of Russian consumer spending for these purposes, experts explained.
The top 3 sagging industries also included the furniture business (its health index fell by 16 points). The sector is still reeling from sanctions losses in the form of disrupted supply chains, the end of foreign partnerships and a sharp rise in the cost of materials, analysts said.
Many niches have opened up for small businesses, and there has been a good impetus for growth in a number of segments , Pavel Samiev, a member of the Presidium of Opora Rossii, explained.
“ Optimism has grown, after a state of shock, adaptation has begun and an understanding has come that new opportunities have arisen ,” he noted.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Economic Development.
Development with barriers
Small business shows good growth against the backdrop of the effectiveness of state support measures , says Associate Professor of the Basic Department of Financial and Economic Security of the Russian University of Economics. G.V. Plekhanova Ekaterina Erokhina. She recalled that many programs are available for enterprises, for example, “land for one ruble”, a reduction in the tax burden, the availability of interest-free loans and loans .
The analyst linked the weak recovery of medium-sized businesses with a significant increase in the cost of raw materials and materials, as well as with a decline in consumer activity.
Small enterprises are focused mainly on domestic demand, they are less dependent on imports from Europe and the United States, and therefore were able to rebuild relatively quickly and painlessly, says Natalia Nazarova, director of the Institute for the Development of Entrepreneurship and Economics.
She also named among the problems the low availability of borrowed funds, the high tax burden and the insufficient effectiveness of government support measures. In turn, Ekaterina Erokhina singled out the following among the key barriers: the fear of businessmen that they will not be able to meet their obligations, the instability of the economic and political situation, sanctions, as well as the shortage in the labor market .
Insufficiency of funding can be called certain stop factors, due to the inconsistency of companies with the inflated requirements of state programs, says Ekaterina Avdeeva from Delovaya Rossiya.
At the same time, small businesses are investing in expansion and production, and the quality of loan servicing is also growing , said Pavel Samiev from Opora Rossii. The level of problem debt in this sector is the lowest in history (less than 5%), even large companies have higher delinquency, he added. At the same time, an extraordinary increase in the key rate to 12% in August can slow down the development of entrepreneurship, he fears.
The main role in the restoration of the Russian economy should be played by private business, President Vladimir Putin said earlier . According to his estimates, it is this sector that is able to rebuild logistics in a short time, find new suppliers, and also increase the production of products in demand.
This article originally appeared in Russian at iz.ru