By Rhod Mackenzie
The Arabian monarchies of the Persian Gulf are still focused on developing relations with Russia and see its positive role in solving Middle East problems. At the same time, the authorities of the countries of the region would like to see the end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which, in their opinion, has affected the whole world. This was discussed during the sixth ministerial meeting of the strategic dialogue between Russia and the Gulf countries, held on Monday in Moscow. For its part, the Russian Federation demonstrates that despite the hostilities in Ukraine, it is still ready to actively participate in the affairs of other regions.
"Vital Interests in the Region"
The sixth round of the strategic dialogue between Russia and the member countries of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC) took place on Monday in Moscow. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his counterparts from Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, state ministers for foreign affairs of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as well as GCC Secretary General Jasim Mohammed al-Budaiwi.
The format was created in 2011 and the meetings were supposed to be annual, but there was a pause between 2016 and 2022. The reason was the conflict between the members of the GCC: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain declared a boycott on Qatar. The reconciliation took place only in 2021, which opened up opportunities for further discussions at the regional level. Moreover, one of the main ideas promoted by Moscow for the GCC member countries was the Concept of Ensuring Collective Security in the Persian Gulf Zone. Its updated version just appeared in 2021.
But it so happened that the first meeting of Sergey Lavrov with his colleagues in the Russia-GCC format after a long break took place only in June 2022.
That is, already at the height of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, when everyone's attention was focused on what was happening at the front, as well as on relations between Moscow and the West.
At that time, the Arab monarchies of the Gulf found themselves in a rather difficult situation. They were subjected to powerful pressure from the United States: Washington wanted these countries to take a clear side and refuse economic and political cooperation with Russia. It was, among other things, the imposition of sanctions and the rejection of agreements within the framework of OPEC + to reduce oil production.
But in the end, the Gulf monarchies showed independence. Continuing to cooperate with Washington and providing humanitarian assistance to Kyiv, they did not turn away from Moscow. On the contrary, as Sergey Lavrov noted on Monday, last year the trade turnover between Russia and the GCC member countries increased by more than 6% compared to 2021 and exceeded $11 billion. And if we take 2011 as a starting point, when Moscow just started to build a format of cooperation with this region, then we are talking about triple growth. True, as Mr. Lavrov immediately added, although this trend is positive, not with each of the GCC countries "trade develops evenly." In general, there is something to work on, and the Russian side is actively striving for this, especially in the context of Western sanctions.
So, for example, last week the head of VTB Andrey Kostin made a proposal to create an alternative international depositary settlement hub, which will be based in one of the countries of the Persian Gulf. True, as the Secretary General of the GCC noted, answering a question from journalists following a meeting with Sergey Lavrov, the secretariat of the organization had not heard anything about this idea. However, even in Moscow they make it clear that Mr. Kostin's proposal still requires careful consideration from all sides. According to the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, the idea of creating an international depository hub is good, but we need to discuss the specifics with the market and partners, find out if they have an interest in this and what kind.
The Arab countries emphasize that they are ready to continue cooperating with Moscow, including taking into account its interests.
“We understand that Russia has vital interests in this region, which include, among other things, the development of logistics routes, the expansion of trade and economic interaction through us and together with us in order to get to Africa and Asia through our region,” the head Omani Foreign Ministry Badr bin Hamad bin Hamoud al-Busaidi as representative of the country chairing this year's GCC. According to him, regional players welcome the work and partnership with the Russian Federation.
What did the Prime Minister of Qatar say at the talks in Moscow
At the same time, the Omani minister paid much attention to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. “The confrontation related to Ukraine threatens international peace and security. We believe that it is necessary to move towards a peaceful solution to this crisis,” he said, adding that the countries of the region welcome any initiatives that will contribute to the settlement. A year ago, Mr. al-Busaidi told the French newspaper Le Figaro that "the war is raging in Europe, and this probably means the need to find a European solution for it." That is, he demonstrated in every possible way that this does not concern the Arab countries. Since then, many regional players have come to understand that the conflict affects the entire global economy and security.
"The Russian-Ukrainian crisis has affected the whole world," GCC Secretary General Jasim Mohammed al-Budaiwi said on Monday.
It is no coincidence that some countries in the region - primarily Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - have actively joined in mediation between Moscow and Kiev. And one of the topics that they are interested in is the extension of the grain deal, which expires next week, which Mr. al-Budaiwi also made clear.
Conceptual Approaches
The meeting between Russia and the GCC was not complete without discussing regional issues. The Arab guests were primarily concerned about the settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the situation in Sudan, Yemen and Syria. Sergei Lavrov spoke about this with pleasure. The Russian concept of security in the Persian Gulf was also mentioned. The topic has become relevant again not only in light of the normalization of relations between Doha and other Arab capitals, but also in connection with reconciliation after seven years of rupture of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. And in general, in the region there is a tendency towards dialogue between regional players, except for the confrontation between Israel and the Palestinians and several Arab countries, as well as with Iran.
Russia welcomes these developments, in contrast to the United States, which is very wary of the rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh. Thus, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, being in Saudi Arabia last month, where, in addition to bilateral negotiations, he met with representatives of all the Arab monarchies of the Gulf, continued to talk about Tehran's destabilizing role in the region.
Of course, the GCC members are still wary of Iran's actions, but are no longer ready, as before, to stand in solidarity with the Americans in the confrontation with this country.
At this stage, the Arab monarchies have decided that the path of dialogue and cooperation is more efficient. This is fully consistent with the concept that Moscow is promoting.
Mr. Lavrov informed his colleagues about a round table held in Moscow in mid-June on the issues of strengthening security, trust and stability in the region. These consultations at the expert level, as well as previous events on this topic, were conducted by the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “As the last meeting showed, interest in the Russian concept has recently grown significantly, experts who, although they do not represent official structures, but have influence in their countries, have a desire to work with us to develop ideas that are interesting for everyone,” said "Kommersant" Vasily Kuznetsov, deputy director of this institute. In his opinion, the thaw in Saudi-Iranian relations and the fact that Russia does not impose anything on anyone influenced this.
'Mr. Kuznetsov recalled that there are several concepts related to security in the Gulf region. Iran, the US and China spoke about this, in particular.'
“The Iranian approach is focused on the fact that first national security must be ensured, and then regional. Tehran is also against the presence of foreign players in the region. Okay, but what to do with American bases in Arab countries? The US, by contrast, bases its approach on excluding Iran from the dialogue and is generally focused on maritime security. Russia, on the other hand, says that security in the region should be ensured by the efforts of all interested players, although this is primarily the business of regional powers,” the expert said.
According to him, the promotion of the Russian concept is important for Moscow in terms of ensuring its security, which, among other things, depends on stability in the Middle East. “In addition, this is an important demonstration that, despite its involvement in the conflict with Ukraine, Russia does not refuse to participate in the problems of other regions, that is, it remains an important player on international platforms,” Vasily Kuznetsov emphasized.
He also noted that Arab monarchies have similar reasons when they talk about their interest in ending hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. “On the one hand, it is important for them that the confrontation between Russia and the West does not spill over into their region, as was the case during the Cold War. On the other hand, this is a chance for some countries to demonstrate their influence, maneuvering between Moscow and Washington, ”concluded the interlocutor of Kommersant.
This article originally appeared in Russian at kommersant.ru