By Rhod Mackenzie
The summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization under the chairmanship of India this time was held in a remote online format, although there was something to celebrate live. So, Iran finally became a full member of the SCO - without it, the Eurasian potential of the organization was clearly limited.
Today, the SCO represents almost half of the world's population and a quarter of the world's GDP, the member countries have unique reserves of various resources. And yet the organization remains a political and diplomatic alliance, not an economic one, as some of its members, such as the Kazakhs, note with regret.
Nevertheless, the main product of the SCO - the creation of geopolitical stability in the Eurasian space - is an exceptionally valuable resource in today's times. Opening the summit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stressed that India sees the alliance not just as an "extended neighborhood" but as a "big family" whose priorities should be security, economic development, interconnectedness, unity, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Modi pointed to possible destabilization in Afghanistan as the main threat to members of the organization. The logistical space of Eurasia is no less valuable for New Delhi than for Beijing, especially since the Indians shy away from supporting the Chinese One Belt, One Road initiative.
A reminder of Afghanistan is a silent reproach to the United States, which promised to restore order in the region, but failed. India understands that America is too far from the problems of Eurasia to rely on it to advance its interests. And they do not count, building a balanced communication with both partners and antagonists.
In turn, the United States would like to see India as a true ally both in Eurasia in general and in the Indo-Pacific region in particular. This is indicated by the results of Narendra Modi's recent visit to Washington.
American Curtsey
The United States has been watching India with concern, noting that New Delhi is not joining the sanctions on Russia, but instead is building up its potential substantially with our hydrocarbons and arms contracts. In addition, India refuses to publicly condemn China's diplomatic successes.
As a result, Washington could not stand it and prepared a tempting package of proposals for Modi. Among the most important initiatives is the establishment of a joint venture between General Electric and India's state-owned aircraft manufacturing corporation, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited. The company will manufacture turbojet engines for Air Force fighters in India.
It should be noted that New Delhi has been seeking this for a long time. This is a real concession to the United States, since Washington does not allow other allies to this level of technological partnership. In addition, a batch of MQ-9B SeaGuardian attack drones will be assembled in India, which is also a plus for the local economy and engineering potential.
One of the most beneficial decisions for the United States is an agreement on the creation of a hub for the repair of US Navy ships. There is already a contract with the Larsen & Toubro shipyards in Kottapuli, Mazagon Dock Limited (Mumbai) and Goa Shipyard (Goa) are next in line.
But it is also useful for Indians. The country's navy is forced to catch up with the Chinese. The project for the development of maritime communications of the PRC "String of Pearls" literally surrounded Hindustan from east to west. And the periodic appearance of Chinese warships and submarines in the strategically important Strait of Malacca did not meet with the proper reaction of the Indian Navy. The presence of the American fleet in the region strengthens the position of New Delhi in negotiations with Beijing. Moreover, the repair hub is not a full-fledged military base, and India itself is not threatened by such an infrastructure in any possible scenario.
In addition, India and the United States agreed to expand cooperation in the field of space under the "Artemis Accords" (Artemis Accords). Already next year, a joint mission with the Americans to the ISS is planned.
Modi also achieved good results for the electronics industry. Now it will be easier for Indian citizens to get jobs in American IT companies in order to gain experience; at the same time tension in the Asian labor market will decrease. It is planned to expand the work visa program, especially in the IT cluster. Micron will invest between $3 billion and $10 billion in its Indian operations, creating new jobs and raising the salaries of local workers.
The Indian leader also met with the heads of the largest American companies - Boeing, Google and Amazon. Further cooperation in the field of artificial intelligence, financial technologies, products and services, cybersecurity, as well as the production of mobile devices in India, according to the prime minister, can be beneficial to both parties.
And yet, a full-fledged military-political union between the United States and India is very far away. Modi made it clear that America needs such initiatives no less than Asia, and it is only about mutually beneficial market relations. Washington is obviously interested in a strategic partnership.
Pendulum country
American experts classify India, along with Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia and a number of others, as a group of global swing states, with which it is necessary to develop closer partnerships in order to win them over to their side.
At the same time, observers note that "the mixed political orientation gives these countries more influence than their population or economic growth could guarantee." And to give the policy of these players a one-sided vector, the US will need exceptional efforts. In particular, it is necessary to satisfy the demands of such countries regarding wider representation in international organizations, improving the reputational status through public support for such a superpower as the United States.
“If the United States and its allies strengthen the international order, then they are all likely to prosper. If the global order falls apart, they — and the world — will suffer the consequences, says the RAND Corporation's concept paper on pendulum countries. “They [such countries] can also greatly benefit from a system that helps prevent war between major powers.” It was this tactic, in particular, that was used by Washington in relation to the Arab world. America actively played the card of the Shia-Sunni confrontation, intensifying the threats to the Arabs from Iran and Israel in order to subsequently offer them guardianship.
However, now this approach does not work not only with the Arab states, but also with India, which regularly modernizes its defense complex, but prefers to avoid conflicts through multi-vector politics and negotiations. On the other hand, it is pointless to frighten the Indians, who are in a constant smoldering conflict with nuclear Pakistan and China. According to public opinion polls regularly published in India Today, most locals are confident that if the border disputes do not stop, war with the PRC is inevitable.
According to Valery Kashin, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Leading Researcher at the Center for Indian Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, there are people in Indian society who can form a request for decisive action by the government, and Prime Minister Modi benefits from such sentiments: here he appears as a defender, which is especially relevant in pre-election periods.
On the premonition of military conflicts with China and Pakistan, Washington tried to play by developing military-technological cooperation with New Delhi. For example, India is already participating in two anti-Chinese blocs - the strategic dialogue between Australia, India, the United States and Japan on security issues in the Indo-Pacific region (QUAD) and the I2U2 group, which, in addition to India and the United States, includes Israel and the United Arab Emirates. However, there is now some lull in the I2U2 agreements due to events in the Middle East. The Arab world is actively demonstrating an independent policy, and the previous agreements are being reviewed.
At the same time, the rivalry between New Delhi and Beijing should not be considered an irreconcilable confrontation, says Natalya Emelyanova, expert on India, Vice-Rector for Strategic Communications and Information Policy of the State Academic University for the Humanities (GAUGN). “In New Delhi, they understand that QUAD is a rather artificial structure, so the Indian elite is unlikely to consider this organization as a likely military-political alliance. The containment rhetoric of QUAD is important for the country, but nothing more,” she says.
It is possible that the conviction that the traditional policy with pendulum countries does not work has forced Washington to develop economic and military-technological, and not just propaganda and rhetorical cooperation with India.
At the same time, New Delhi does not appear to be interested in developing strategic alliances with the main players on the continent.
Of course, India's economic ties with China are very strong. Their trade turnover is estimated at 136 billion dollars, with China having a positive balance of more than 100 billion. The main components for India's pharmaceutical products, which make up a significant part of its exports, come from China. However, there is no full-fledged rapprochement with the Celestial Empire, although Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, despite their cold personal relations, often demonstrate a readiness for dialogue. Neither the Indian elites, who fear Chinese activity in Asia, nor the electorate, accustomed to seeing the PRC as a dangerous antagonist, will allow this.
New Delhi is challenging China's economic achievements, trying to replace it as the "factory of the world" and become an Asian center of mass production, helped by increased trade with the United States. At the same time, the country continues to build up its defense capabilities, placing tens of billions of dollars worth of military orders in Russia and acting as the largest buyer of Russian weapons: it accounts for about 20% of Moscow's current portfolio of orders.
India plans to maintain relations on a bilateral basis, and separately with Russia and separately with China. And to consolidate with both countries on a common agenda, for example, emphasizing the desire for multipolarity and equal respect for world powers.
But in the short term, it is also interested in the development of multilateral formats, both within the framework of existing associations, in particular BRICS, SCO or ASEAN (even as a partner and observer), and in the context of informal relations within the triangle with China and Russia. India considers our country as a potential ally in the issue of containing Chinese economic influence in the region, as well as preventing and stopping the threat of border conflicts, which have subsided but have not disappeared anywhere.
Another strategic task for New Delhi is the development of logistics. As long as problems with land corridors persist, India remains too dependent on maritime trade routes and has to compete with China and the United States for the Pacific, African and Latin American markets.
However, the opening of logistics corridors to the north through Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia for India is fraught with a number of challenges. “Even if there is a gas or oil pipeline or, for example, an unexpected agreement is reached in Afghanistan and some kind of energy infrastructure is built to Pakistan, India will not simply join the project. Because he fears dependence on Islamabad, blackmail on his part. The Indians take these risks into account,” said Aleksey Zakharov, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
In this matter, Russia can become an insurance player that will give India additional guarantees for the security of the economic and even military activity of both New Delhi's neighbors and the countries of Central Asia. Recall that India has been strategically working on entering this region since 2012 within the framework of the special doctrine “Act in the North”, also competing with China here.
The friendship between Moscow and New Delhi contributes to the strengthening of multilateral partnership in Eurasia and provides India with less dependence on external forces, essentially stabilizing the Indian pendulum on neutrality in the prospect of a US-China conflict.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping show determination to cooperate closely
Russian factor
The strengthening of India is beneficial to Russia, and mutual consideration of needs is important for the development of bilateral relations. New Delhi is interested in the economic development of its northern regions, which are far from sea lanes. Serious investments in transport infrastructure are needed here.
An example of successful cooperation in this area is the deal of a joint Russian-Indian consortium with the participation of Transmashholding structures, which will supply 120 passenger electric trains (1920 cars) to India as part of a tender. The deal is valued at $1.7 billion plus a rolling stock maintenance contract for 35 years.
India is in dire need of developing the manufacturing sector and increasing exports. In order to strengthen relations between countries, we need to offer our domestic market for Indian goods, says Olga Solodkova, Candidate of Historical Sciences. “Contrary to popular belief, the goal of any Hindu is to achieve material well-being. It's there in the first place. And people are not at all shy about it, ”the expert notes.
In India, millions of private traders produce something and want to earn money, but there are practically no mechanisms that allow them to export products to Russia. “Our companies should be interested in purchasing Indian goods, but so far the logistics infrastructure for this is not sufficiently developed,” emphasizes Alexei Zakharov.
The tradition of doing business in India is such that the state has practically no influence on the private sector: entrepreneurs have to find ways for cooperation themselves. That is, it is not enough to agree on economic ties at the level of heads of state - it is necessary that private initiative sprout.
“Where Russia will offer some benefit, the Indians, of course, will meet us halfway. And for this, domestic companies should have specialists in India,” says Zakharov. In addition, the North-South transport corridor, the main artery of Russian-Indian trade, needs to be developed. A significant part of it passes through the territory of Iran and leads to the ports of the Caspian and Black Seas, the throughput of which is limited. Railway stations and junctions also need to be upgraded. The growing trade turnover requires significant investments in infrastructure. This needs to be negotiated, including with transit countries.
“There is infrastructure along the Caspian Sea, through Baku. And then the difficulties begin. Firstly, the railway track is changing on the border between Azerbaijan and Iran. Secondly, there begins an unfinished section from Astara - this is just a border checkpoint - to Rash. The work has not been completed yet, although the road is only 165 kilometers long,” Zakharov recalls.
While other directions are developing. For example, Fesco, one of the largest private transport and logistics companies in Russia, announced the signing of an agreement with an Indian logistics group to develop maritime transport between the two countries. The parties plan to organize a direct sea connection from the ports of India to the ports of Novorossiysk and St. Petersburg and in the opposite direction. It is also planned to conduct a study of potential cargo transit between the ports of Chennai and Vladivostok.
Interfere with Russian-Indian trade and the problem with foreign exchange settlements. Already today we need to think about how to spend the rupees that our country receives for energy. Perhaps, commodity platforms are required, where such commercial ties will be accumulated. The support of the banking sector is also needed here.
If Russia manages to build as productive relations with India as with China, the Russia-India-China strategic triangle will help stabilize the processes in the Eurasian space
How to conquer India
According to Olga Solodkova, despite the fact that relations between Moscow and New Delhi are largely based on historical heritage and emotional closeness, symbolic and organizational capital is not used enough. And India's decision not to support Western sanctions against Russia is dictated primarily by pragmatic considerations.
In addition, the country has been integrated into the Western corporate and cultural environment for many decades, and this influence must be taken into account. Community ties are strong here. Each intellectual is the leader of his community, an authority for many people. Experts call this design “identity plus”.
Indian intellectuals, brought up in the West, organize numerous "thought factories", serve business and government, provide a huge amount of reports and recommendations to their customers. And in this, largely pro-Western, environment, Russia is not very favored or simply not known and not understood.
In order to change the prevailing attitude and win the friendship of the eastern partner, one must understand the nature of his identity. “People there often talk about their ancient culture and history, about how many things were invented in India. The country is now experiencing a rise in national consciousness. And the ideas of globalization go against this trend. Moreover, Indians associate both the West and China with globalization, believing that both of these centers underestimate the importance of India in the world and its influence on world culture,” Solodkova explains.
It should be noted that India has a rather amorphous administrative structure, but a rigid religious system. This prevents the development of relations with the local society from the top down, through managers and politicians - here it is necessary to change the usual approach and develop horizontal partnerships.
In addition, Moscow is able to formally consolidate India's status as a great power in the face of the transformation of international relations and the emerging system of global security. The geopolitical potential of the expanding SCO and BRICS is very useful here. In a sense, these venues can become a more attractive alternative to the unworkable format of the UN Security Council, which the Indians are so keen on. However, Russia has repeatedly declared its readiness to support India's entry into the permanent membership of the expanded UN Security Council.
China and Russia have already shown a high degree of mutual trust, and together they form too large a margin in Eurasia for India to count on a balance of interests in the region. Therefore, the country is looking for a counterbalance and is moving closer to the United States.
But if Moscow manages to build an equally productive relationship with New Delhi, the Russia-India-China strategic triangle will help stabilize the processes in the Eurasian space. In this case, the overseas partner will simply become superfluous and even harmful from the point of view of ensuring security on the continent.
This article originally appeared in Russian at expert.ru