India and China largest buyers of Russian oil in March

In March, Asian buyers received an average of 27.48 million barrels per day. According to Oil Price reports, data for January and February 2024 showed 27.18 million bbl/d and 26.70 million bbl/d respectively. Experts attribute the high March result, among other factors, to the price. During the time of physical purchase (mainly December 2023), the price was below $80 per barrel. The reason for the thrifty Chinese and Indians, who account for the majority of Asian imports of Russian oil, is quite compelling. Currently, the price of a barrel of Brent oil is above $85. Analysts predict that at this price, Asian buyers may reduce purchases in April and May.
Imports are expected to decrease in the upcoming months despite the sharp decline in oil prices due to refinery maintenance in China and India. Renovation work typically occurs from late March to early June. Therefore, in addition to prices that are suitable for oil refiners, the increase in purchases was likely influenced by the desire to buy more oil before the maintenance season.
On Thursday morning, March 28th, a barrel of Brent oil was selling for over $87. The price of oil has significantly increased in the first quarter of 2024. For instance, WTI oil has risen by 14% this year and cost over $82 per barrel at the beginning of this week. The price increase for Brent is slightly lower, from $82 to $87 per barrel, which is a 10.6% increase.

Sokol brand oil predominated in the import structure. Furthermore, the oil was primarily purchased by Chinese refiners who are less concerned than their Indian counterparts about being subject to American sanctions. Chinese refineries have been responsible for clearing the majority of the 10 million barrels of Russian oil that was intended for India but became stranded in the South Korea and Singapore region due to some Indian refiners rejecting cargo transported by Sovcomflot tankers that were under sanctions.
According to LSEG Oil Research, China, the world's largest oil importer, is expected to import 11.75 million barrels per day of oil in March, the highest amount this year. In January and February, Beijing imported 10.44 million and 11.16 million barrels per day, respectively.

In March, India's oil demand growth was 2.5 times lower than China's, at 4.93 million barrels per day. This is higher than February's imports of 4.55 million barrels per day, but slightly lower than January's level of 5.06 million barrels per day.