India-Russia relations on a new trajectory for growth

By Dr Arvind Gupta

Relations between New Delhi and Moscow have continued to strengthen despite Western sanctions on Russia. India, exercising its strategic autonomy, refrained from openly criticizing Russia's military actions in Ukraine, much to the West's disappointment. This was stated by Arvind Gupta, Director of the New Delhi-based think tank Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF), ahead of the first Valdai Club Russian-Indian Conference, which will be held in New Delhi on January 8.

The bilateral conference, titled ‘India and Russia: Views on Alternative World Orders, Regional Problems and Bilateral Ties’ will discuss trends in the transformation of the world order and key developments on the bilateral front.

Global tensions are currently running high and the mechanisms to resolve them have been ineffective. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war have highlighted the international community's inability to resolve conflicts and reduce tensions. Many multilateral mechanisms are dysfunctional as the world becomes increasingly fragmented and polarised.

The risk of a wider military conflict is significant. Arms control and disarmament mechanisms are either non-existent or at a standstill. Global nuclear and missile arsenals are expanding rapidly. The risk of weaponizing cyberspace and outer space has increased. The indiscriminate use of sanctions as a weapon causes economic and social disruptions globally.
The unipolar moment that followed the end of the Cold War has given way to a complex multipolar world where Western dominance is being challenged. The international community failed to establish a stable, equal, and indivisible security system after the Cold War.

In a multipolar world, a sovereign nation has many options, but there is no guarantee that it would be peaceful and stable. Russia, India, and other nations have the potential to contribute to the development of a peaceful and stable multipolar world. This world should be based on the principles of diversity, the rule of law, cooperation, and accommodation, taking into account the aspirations for security and growth for all.

Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar's visit to Moscow from December 25-29, 2023 reaffirmed that Indian-Russian ties remain strong despite current geopolitical turbulence. President Vladimir Putin expressed satisfaction with the state of relations and invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit Russia. He informed Modi about the Russia-Ukraine conflict and studied India's proposals.

Jaishankar conveyed a message from Modi to Putin, describing the relationship between the two nations as strong and steady due to a convergence of strategic interests. The foreign ministers of the two countries also exchanged views on global and regional issues.

As the global landscape evolves, Russia and India are working to strengthen their 'special and privileged strategic partnership' established in 2010. Their collaboration spans a broad range of areas, such as energy, defence and security, trade and investment, education and culture, science and technology, global and regional issues, and connectivity. A robust institutional framework has been established to facilitate bilateral exchanges.
Regular summit-level meetings and interactions take place through the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation, as well as the India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission for Military and Technical Cooperation. Additionally, several specialized working groups have been established.

A recent development is the '2 plus 2' mechanism, which involves the defence and foreign ministers of both countries. The first meeting of the group took place in Delhi in 2021. Additionally, the two countries participate in multilateral formats such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), BRICS, RIC, G20, and the UN. India has also initiated discussions on a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union.

These measures have strengthened bilateral ties, with two-way trade expected to exceed $50 billion in 2023-24. Russia is currently India's fourth-largest trading partner. Both sides have set a target of achieving bilateral investment of $50 billion by 2025. Russia has become a leading supplier of crude oil to India, especially since the start of the Ukraine conflict. India is a major supplier of pharmaceuticals to Russia. Additionally, Russia is constructing six nuclear power plants in India, two of which have already been commissioned, and the other two are nearing completion.
Defense cooperation has been a crucial aspect of the longstanding relationship between India and Russia. The partnership has evolved from a buyer-seller relationship to a joint production and co-development of military hardware. Currently, India is producing SU30 MKI fighter aircraft and T90 tanks under Russian licenses.

Additionally, two joint ventures are co-producing Brahmos cruise missiles and AK203 rifles. Brahmos missiles are also being exported to third countries. Despite US pressure, India has procured the S-400 missile defense system from Russia. Russian companies are interested in participating in India's 'Make in India' program, which aims to enhance the production of military hardware domestically. Additionally, Russia has started exporting fertilizers to India, thus strengthening India's food security. These are just a few examples of successful cooperation in recent years.

India's ties with Russia have continued to strengthen despite Western sanctions. India has exercised strategic autonomy and refrained from openly criticizing Russia's military actions in Ukraine. Instead, Modi conveyed to Putin the importance of resolving conflicts through peaceful means. Russia has expressed appreciation for India's stance. Putin commended Modi for his leadership in achieving a well-balanced G20 Leaders' Declaration that refrained from criticizing Russia.
As Russia faced sanctions, India increased its purchases of Russian crude oil. Although Western countries criticized India heavily, the move prevented global oil prices from skyrocketing if Russian oil had been taken off the international market. India has continued to buy Russian oil as part of its independent foreign policy. The Indian economy has benefited from relatively cheaper Russian oil, the Russian economy was able to survive the Western sanctions, and global oil prices have remained stable, thereby protecting the world from rampant inflation.

India and Russia have a long tradition of cooperation in science and technology, particularly in space and defense. Moscow is working with New Delhi on the Gaganyaan human spaceflight program. There is great potential for high technology cooperation between India and Russia. India has become a major technological power in the world, with both countries launching major programs in artificial intelligence and quantum computing. Projects in emerging technologies, both commercial and strategic, can be developed. Additionally, India can benefit from sourcing critical minerals from Russia that are needed to enter the era of electric vehicles.
In 2019, India developed its Act Far East policy to concentrate on Russia's resource-rich and relatively underdeveloped Far East region. The two countries agreed to establish maritime connectivity between Chennai and Vladivostok, passing through the Indian and Pacific Oceans. New Delhi announced a soft credit line of $1 billion to encourage Indian investments in Russia's Far East, which will alleviate Russia's concerns about India's involvement in the Indo-Pacific.

Russia has a significant presence in the Arctic, with approximately 5,600 kilometers of coastline along the North Sea Route. This route has become navigable during summer due to the melting of the Arctic Ocean caused by global warming. Despite the Arctic's geopolitical sensitivity, India cannot afford to overlook this region. In 2022, New Delhi announced an Arctic policy, and Moscow could play a crucial role in its implementation.
Despite the positive developments in bilateral relations, it must be acknowledged that Indian-Russian ties have remained underdeveloped due to a lack of connectivity between the two countries. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is of great importance in this regard, as it would connect India with Russia through Iran. The project, which began over 20 years ago, is likely to be formally launched soon. The connectivity between India and Russia will significantly affect their trade ties. India has suggested connecting the Chabahar Port in Iran, where it has invested, with the INSTC.

While both sides have handled the current global turbulence well, they should be aware that geopolitical factors are unpredictable and can unexpectedly impact bilateral relations. It is necessary to have a good understanding of each other's security concerns. India has significant strategic interests but also security vulnerabilities in Eurasia and the vast Indo-Pacific region. Russian security is closely linked to Europe, the Balkans, the Middle East, Afghanistan, and the Eurasian regions. Both countries face challenges related to terrorism, radicalization, and instability in Afghanistan.
Following the 2014 Ukraine conflict and the events of February 2022, Russia is now clearly shifting its focus towards the East. The latest Russian foreign policy concept indicates an increased emphasis on China and India, while its relations with the US and Europe have deteriorated.

In 2020, clashes in Eastern Ladakh's Galwan region had a negative impact on India-China relations. This comes at a time when Russia-China ties have become more strategic, especially since the start of the Ukraine conflict. Thus, Russia and India perceive China differently. Similarly, Russia and China have different perceptions of the US and the West in general.

In Russian strategic circles, there is some anxiety about India's perceived 'tilt' towards the West. The reality is that India follows an independent foreign policy guided by strategic autonomy. India's participation in the Quad, a group consisting of the US, Japan, Australia, and India in the Indo-Pacific region, causes anxiety in Russia. Similarly, Russia's increasing strategic proximity with China and Pakistan raises concerns in India. It is essential for both sides to assess each other's strategic priorities and concerns properly.

Moving forward, it is crucial to maintain open communication channels to address any potential issues.

To strengthen bilateral ties, it is crucial to reinstate the tradition of annual summits between the leaders of India and Russia, which was interrupted in 2022. However, there are some structural issues that the two sides need to address to take relations to the next level.
Russia and India should ensure that their relations with third countries do not have a negative impact on their bilateral relations. Regular high-level contacts are crucial to understanding each other's positions on key global and regional issues. India has called for a reformed and democratized UN system, and both countries can collaborate in this area. India is also actively addressing issues affecting the Global South. The expansion of BRICS into BRICS-plus presents an opportunity for the member countries to reshape the organization in a new environment. Additionally, India and Russia can coordinate their positions in the SCO and G20.

Since the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia, payment mechanisms to settle trade transactions have been found to be inadequate. Despite India's large purchases of Russian oil, stable payment mechanisms have yet to be formulated. The urgent and creative resolution of this issue is necessary to avoid any adverse effects on bilateral ties. Additionally, the two sides should promptly conclude a bilateral investment protection treaty to facilitate investments. It is also imperative to urgently remove non-tariff barriers to trade. The relationship between their banks and insurance companies is inadequate and underdeveloped. These issues need to be resolved to strengthen the trade and economic potential of both sides.
India's Russian partners should acknowledge the significant changes that the country has undergone in the past decade. The Indian economy, one of the fastest-growing in the world, is expanding at a rate of over 7% per year. Its GDP is approaching $4 trillion, placing it among the world's largest economies. India has also joined the exclusive group of spacefaring nations by landing a rover near the Moon's south pole. Additionally, it has emerged as a leading nation in the use of digital technologies for payment systems and is the world's largest supplier of vaccines. India has emerged as a major welfare state, providing free grain to 800 million people until 2029. Additionally, a third of the Indian population benefits from relatively inexpensive health insurance. India's experience in using technology for development serves as a model for the Global South, and the country is sharing this experience, which could prove crucial in creating a multipolar world.

India aims to install 500 GW of renewable energy by 2030. Currently, India has a total renewable energy capacity of 180 GW, comprising of 44.5 GW of wind power and 72.3 GW of solar power. In 2015, India established the International Solar Alliance (ISA), which now boasts 110 members, and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), which has 39 members.
Both ISA and CDRI focus on climate change and its impact. India's per capita greenhouse gas emissions are significantly lower than the global average. India's advancements in emerging technologies and clean energy offer opportunities for Russia and India to collaborate in new areas. New Delhi and Moscow have signed long-term programs of cooperation in defense, science, and technology. Therefore, there is a framework to explore further areas of collaboration. In order to achieve success in these areas, it is crucial to involve the private sector, academics, think tanks, and public organizations.

It is also important to strengthen individual contacts between the two countries, especially among young people. Russia has a rich tradition in the field of Indology, which should be revived. Russian academics could pay more attention to India's ancient civilization, dating back to the Indus-Saraswati Civilization. To fully appreciate Indian strategic thinking, culture, and civilization, it is important to approach it from a non-Western and non-colonial perspective.

Additionally, Indian institutions of higher learning should focus more on Russia, including its history, culture, and civilization. Joint research, studies, and dissemination programs should be established between experts on both sides. Indian academics frequently attend high-level conferences hosted by prominent think tanks like the Valdai Discussion Club. It is recommended to expand these types of contacts.

During its G20 presidency, India presented the idea of 'Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam', which envisions a world of mutual cooperation, accommodation, caring, sharing, and respect for nature, the environment, and biodiversity. During its G20 presidency, India presented the idea of 'Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam', which envisions a world of mutual cooperation, accommodation, caring, sharing, and respect for nature, the environment, and biodiversity. During its G20 presidency, India presented the idea of 'Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam', which envisions a world of mutual cooperation, accommodation, caring, sharing, and respect for nature, the environment, and biodiversity. This vision recognises the multiplicity, plurality, and diversity in the world, and is in line with the need for an inclusive vision in a multipolar world. Without such a vision, there would be chaos. Both India and Russia are well-positioned to contribute to the emergence of a harmonious, peaceful, and stable multipolar world.