Indonesia's new leader is friendly towards Russia

15th Feb 2024

By Rhod Mackenzie

General Prabowo Subianto is set to become the new president of Indonesia, the World's largest Muslim country. Russia and Indonesia share similar views on international conflicts, and Subianto himself has referred to the Russian people as friends. He has also proposed a plan for a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian crisis. This raises the question of where Moscow's and Jakarta's interests intersect and whether our countries can achieve a strategic partnership.
Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto has claimed victory in the presidential election on Wednesday, citing an unofficial quick count. Preliminary data shows that he has secured approximately 60% of the votes. Speaking to thousands of supporters at a sports stadium in the capital Jakarta, the 72-year-old candidate declared it a 'victory for all Indonesians.' Prabowo's opponents, former Jakarta governor Anis Baswedan (who received about 27% of the vote) and former Java governor Ganjar Pranowo (who received 17%), have not yet conceded defeat.

Prabowo, a former special forces commander, is married to Siti Hediati Hariyadi, the second daughter of former dictator Mohammed Suharto, who ruled the country from 1966 to 1998. Prabowo's father founded Bank Negara Indonesia, the country's first state-owned bank. The incumbent President Joko Widodo, also known as Jokowi, was unable to run for a third term. He endorsed Subianto, who campaigned alongside Widodo's 36-year-old son, Ghibran Rakabuming Raka. If elected, Ghibran will become the vice president.

Subianto has faced criticism in the West for his role as head of the Kopassus special forces group during the Suharto regime, which was used to persecute political opponents. There are concerns in the Western press that the country may revert to authoritarianism.
During the election campaign, Subianto actively used social media platforms, including TikTok, to demonstrate his openness. In response to criticism from human rights activists and questions about his military background, the candidate promised economic prosperity and the creation of 20 million jobs during his first term.

This is Prabowo's third presidential election after running for vice president in 2009. The voting process was monitored in many parts of the world. Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, renowned for its rich culture and abundant resources. With a population of 277 million, approximately 90% of Indonesians are Muslim, making it the largest Muslim-majority nation globally.

Geographically, Indonesia is situated between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. As a member of significant international organizations such as the UN, G20, and ASEAN, the political stability of Indonesia is crucial for maintaining peace in the region. Jakarta is cultivating economic ties with China while also conducting joint military exercises with the United States.
Joko Widodo's legacy includes economic growth and bold infrastructure projects, such as the $33 billion plan to relocate the capital to Borneo. However, critics argue that Widodo's leadership has involved political compromises and bowing to pressure from former Suharto-era generals. Additionally, opponents have accused him of attempting to create a new political dynasty through his son's involvement in Subianto's election campaign.
“Subianto holds a high rank in the army and will maintain Widodo’s policies. Additionally, this is a win for Widodo’s son, who will serve as vice president. This decision prioritizes stability and continuity,” according to Dmitry Mosyakov, director of the Center for Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The interlocutor believes that the country will not become authoritarian under the former military leader because the ruling clan remains in power. Indonesia has already experienced authoritarianism and is now striving to make political decisions that benefit not only the ruling structures but also the opposition. It is likely that someone from the losing coalition will be invited to take power. The country's psychology has changed. The specialist explained that the idea of stability and predictability, rather than political competition, is the most important thing.

It is evident that there will be elements of continuity, not in terms of a direct continuation of Joko Widodo's policies, but in what has been a matter of national consensus for Indonesian policy over the past decades. According to Ekaterina Koldunova, director of the ASEAN Center at MGIMO University of the Russian Foreign Ministry, this reflects an active and independent foreign policy, as well as a desire to play a significant role not only in ASEAN but also in the wider macro-regional framework.

She stated that the tasks of ensuring Indonesia's economic recovery, finding external investors, technological transformation of the economy, and solving pressing social and infrastructural problems to maintain a decent standard of living for a large and fairly young population will persist. She also mentioned that the participation of the president's son in the elections would not determine the trajectory of Prabowo's future policies.

According to the specialist, common dichotomies such as 'authoritarianism versus democracy' oversimplify reality. However, it is important to acknowledge that being recognised as a 'democratic country' has significant benefits for Indonesia in terms of international cooperation.
There is a significant debate in Indonesia about how to organize Indonesian democracy substantively and to what extent it should balance traditional values with political principles borrowed from Western practices.

Prabowo Subianto is not an innovator in these matters. In advocating for a revision of the scope of direct elections in the country, the expert cites both the first Indonesian constitution of 1945 and the weaknesses that have become apparent during the democratic transition that began in the late 1990s, particularly the issue of large-scale corruption during elections.

Mosyakov highlighted the growing relationship between Russia and Indonesia, with Indonesia now being Russia's primary economic partner in Southeast Asia. This is especially significant given Vietnam's foreign policy dependence on the United States and Singapore's support for Western sanctions against Russia. Last summer, Prabowo Subianto suggested sending peacekeepers to the conflict zone in Ukraine and holding new referendums. During a meeting with the Russian Ambassador in Jakarta, Lyudmila Vorobyova, the general promised to strengthen bilateral relations and referred to the Russian people as his friends.

He highlighted that trade between the two countries has been growing at a rate of 40% per year and that they share common views on many international conflicts. Therefore, the continuation of Widodo's course is a significant advantage for Russia.

It is expected that Subianto will continue his policy of balancing between China and the United States. The speaker believes that Indonesia will require Russia as both an economic and military-political ally in certain circumstances.

Prabowo Subianto promises to adhere to a policy of non-alignment with any blocs and respect for all countries, which is the credo of Indonesian foreign policy. Unlike the West, Indonesia can clearly communicate the continuity of its policy, with a focus on finding maximum compromise. Mosyakov emphasizes that these are the principles of a certain family circle where someone wins or loses, but everyone is in business.
In Indonesia, there is a significant debate on how to organise Indonesian democracy substantively and to what extent it should balance traditional values with political principles borrowed from Western practices.

Prabowo Subianto is not an innovator in these matters. The expert advocates revising the scope of direct elections in Indonesia. This is based on the weaknesses that have become apparent during the democratic transition that began in the late 1990s, particularly the issue of large-scale corruption during elections.

The expert cites both the first Indonesian constitution of 1945 and the growing relationship between Russia and Indonesia, with Indonesia now being Russia's primary economic partner in Southeast Asia. Vietnam's foreign policy dependence on the United States and Singapore's support for Western sanctions against Russia make this particularly significant. Last summer, Prabowo Subianto proposed sending peacekeepers to the conflict zone in Ukraine and holding new referendums. During a meeting with the Russian Ambassador in Jakarta, Lyudmila Vorobyova, the general promised to strengthen bilateral relations and referred to the Russian people as his friends.

The speaker highlighted that trade between the two countries has been growing at a rate of 40% per year and that they share common views on many international conflicts. Therefore, the continuation of Widodo's course is a significant advantage for Russia.

Prabowo Subianto promises to adhere to Indonesia's policy of non-alignment with any blocs and respect for all countries, which is the cornerstone of Indonesian foreign policy. Unlike the West, Indonesia can clearly communicate the continuity of its policy, with a focus on finding maximum compromise. Mosyakov emphasizes that these are the principles of a certain group where someone may win or lose, but everyone is involved in the business.