By Rhod Mackenzie
Iran and Azerbaijan, which found themselves on the verge of armed confrontation six months ago, began to cautiously draw closer. The Iranian Foreign Minister traveled to Baku, where he met with Ilham Aliyev. As a result of the talks, the parties announced a positive atmosphere and overcoming misunderstandings . Experts say that the warming is connected, among other things, with the intensification of work on the North-South project with the participation of Russia. Details - in the material "Izvestia".
How were the negotiations in Baku
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian visited Baku, where he met with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. At the end of the talks, the participants did not hide their optimism. “ After overcoming some misunderstandings, a positive atmosphere is forming between our countries. Iran is ready to fulfill all existing agreements,” Abdollahian said. In turn, Aliyev said that Azerbaijan would never allow its territory to be used to threaten Iran.
Separately, the parties discussed the resumption of the work of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran, which was closed after the attack in January. Ilham Aliyev said those responsible for the attack should be punished. His interlocutor said that the investigation of the case has been completed, and the verdict will be announced in the near future . It is known that earlier the parties agreed that the diplomats would return after the verdict.
After the completion of the talks, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said that he assesses Abdollahian's visit positively. “Recently, tensions have arisen between the two countries. Now we see the intention of Iran to take serious steps to resolve differences. Azerbaijan will take adequate response steps,” he said. According to Bayramov, a meeting of the bilateral state commission on cooperation will be held in the Iranian city of Astara in the near future , at which they will discuss the development of transport communications and the joint use of water resources.
How did the relationship deteriorate?
Relations between Iran and Azerbaijan deteriorated sharply in January this year. The reason was the attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran . A man with a machine gun then ran into the building of the diplomatic mission. In the room, he opened fire, resulting in the death of a security guard, two more employees were injured.
Iranian law enforcement agencies reported that the killer acted out of personal, domestic motives. In Baku, the incident was considered a terrorist attack. “Iran is known as a country that supports terrorism. There are big doubts about the objective investigation of the attack,” said Sevinj Huseynova, an Azerbaijani MP from the ruling party. As a result, the embassy in Tehran suspended work, and all employees and their families were evacuated to their homeland.
In March, an attempt was made in Baku on the life of Fazil Mustafa, a member of the Azerbaijani parliament, who is known for criticizing the authorities of the Islamic republic. Law enforcement officials said that traces of the crime lead to Iran. After that, Azerbaijan declared four Iranian diplomats persona non grata. Raids on "Iranian agents" have also become regular in Azerbaijan - several times law enforcement agencies detained groups of people who allegedly planned armed riots and a seizure of power. An additional factor of tension was the military exercises of the two countries in the border area - on different banks of the Araks River.
At the same time, experts also named deeper reasons for the deterioration of the situation. On the one hand, Baku was not satisfied with Iran's position along the so-called Zangezur corridor - a direct road from Azerbaijan to the Nakhichevan exclave and further to Turkey . According to the plans of Baku and Ankara, the route should pass through the Syunik region of Armenia, while having an extraterritorial status, that is, being withdrawn from the jurisdiction of Yerevan.
Tehran believes that the project threatens Iran's ties with Armenia, and through it with the entire EAEU. In addition, the construction of the route will lead to further strengthening in the region of Turkey . “Iran is against changing the historical borders of the region, this is our red line. We will take all measures to resist even such thinking,” said Hossein Amir Abdollahian.
Another conflict issue is Azerbaijan's close relations with Israel . Baku supplies the Jewish state with oil and oil products, buys high-tech weapons - dual-use electronics, attack and reconnaissance drones, navigation and optics systems, precision-guided munitions. In Tehran, such activity is treated with hostility. Azerbaijan borders on Iran on land and the Caspian Sea, for the Israeli special operations forces, the Transcaucasus is ideal as a springboard for an attack on the Islamic Republic.
Why is there a warming
However, there are many reasons for the settlement of relations. For example, both countries have more important geopolitical goals and objectives. Iran is focused on confrontation with Israel and the US . Azerbaijan seeks to sign a peace treaty with Armenia on its own terms and get Karabakh. Both states need a reliable rear, for this it is better to avoid additional conflicts.
Iran and Azerbaijan also have close economic ties . At the end of 2022, the trade turnover amounted to $688 million, which is 13% more than the previous year. Iran exports chemical products, building materials and agricultural products to Azerbaijan, buys equipment, food and clothing.
On the third hand, Russia's activity in the region contributes to the establishment of relations. Thus, Moscow is interested in the development of the North-South transport corridor, which should connect the Russian Federation with the countries of the Persian basin, South and Southeast Asia. One of the promising routes involves the movement of goods along the western coast of the Caspian Sea - through Azerbaijan and Iran. In September last year, in Baku, representatives of the three countries signed a declaration on the joint development of logistics. In May of this year, the states agreed on the construction of the Rasht-Astara railway line, which is necessary for the full launch of the route.
What the experts say
Iranologist Vladimir Sazhin believes that Baku and Tehran did not want to bring down bilateral relations.
Irina Fedorova, an employee of the Center for the Study of the Countries of the Near and Middle East of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, notes the special geopolitical situation in the region. According to her, Baku takes an unequivocal pro-Turkish position and declares close relations with Ankara. In reality, however, it may be burdened by excessive dependence on the main ally, it is interested in diversifying foreign policy ties, therefore, it is not against improving relations with Iran.
Caucasus scholar, expert of the Strategic Culture Foundation Andrey Areshev notes that Iranian-Azerbaijani relations develop in cycles.
— The aggravation is not the first time replaced by warming. I think we will continue to see bursts of tension in the South Caucasus. In the conditions of international and regional turbulence, active work of non-state structures, missions and intelligence agencies, a new round of deterioration in the situation is almost inevitable, he believes.
This article originally appeared in Russian at iz.ru