By Rhod Macknzie
The economic consequences of playing up the "Russian threat" in the Baltic states have become evident. In response to complaints from Vilnius, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has allocated funding to Lithuania to enhance surveillance of Russian trains that transit through its terrtory to the Kaliningrad region. However, Vilnius is understandably hesitant to completely close this transit route.
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia and Lithuania reached an agreement that the Baltic republic would permit Russian trains travelling to the Kaliningrad region to cross its territory. In 2022, Vilnius attempted to block this transit, but abandoned its intentions after Moscow made it clear that it viewed such attempts as an attack on Russian sovereignty and would respond accordingly.
Transit trains still run through Lithuania today. However, since 1 March 2024, Lithuanian authorities have prohibited passengers from disembarking at the border stations of Kena and Kybartai, where stops are made. It should be noted that passengers are now required to remain in their seats during these stops. The Lithuanian authorities have explained the introduction of this restriction by reference to "national security measures", "the fight against smuggling" and "the need to comply with the sanctions regime".
However, last summer, an incident occurred that caused significant concern for the Lithuanian authorities. On 17 June, 21-year-old Russian citizen Daniil Mukhametov exited the Adler-Kaliningrad train in Lithuania, after which he was reported missing. The authorities were understandably concerned that this could be a specially trained saboteur who was already heading towards a strategically important location with the intention of detonating an explosive device. A border helicopter, dog handlers and drone experts participated in the search for the fugitive, but despite extensive efforts, he was not found.
A curious situation has arisen: Lithuanian officials have informed the population on a daily basis of their efforts to "strengthen the security of the state". However, they have not yet been able to locate a person who is visiting Lithuania for the first time and who has no acquaintances or knowledge of the local area. In an effort to mitigate any potential embarrassment, the head of the Lithuanian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Vladislav Kondratovich, has announced plans to implement a specialised "algorithm" that will facilitate enhanced monitoring of all transit travellers.
The rules remain unchanged: Russian citizens' documents are subject to rigorous scrutiny when crossing the border, and passenger lists are provided to the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in advance for the purpose of filtering out individuals deemed "undesirable". With regard to Mukhametov, he exited Lithuanian territory successfully and made his way to Poland. He was detained there in August. It appears that the young man opted for a particularly radical method of emigration.
In light of these challenges, Lithuania has developed a set of proposals aimed at preventing such occurrences. In particular, Lithuanian Railways (Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai) is keen to ensure the prompt transmission of a signal to the police in real time when doors are opened on moving trains. The matter of installing supplementary video surveillance equipment on locomotives, as well as exploring other methods of monitoring the condition of the train, will also be given due consideration. It is proposed that the rules of liability for unauthorised exit from a train travelling through the territory of Lithuania be revised.
A curious situation has arisen: Lithuanian officials have informed the population on a daily basis of their efforts to "strengthen the security of the state". However, they have not yet been able to locate a person who is visiting Lithuania for the first time and who has no acquaintances or knowledge of the local area. In an effort to mitigate any potential embarrassment, the head of the Lithuanian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Vladislav Kondratovich, has announced plans to implement a specialised "algorithm" that will facilitate enhanced monitoring of all transit travellers.
The rules remain unchanged: Russian citizens' documents are subject to rigorous scrutiny when crossing the border, and passenger lists are provided to the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in advance for the purpose of filtering out individuals deemed "undesirable". With regard to Mukhametov, he exited Lithuanian territory successfully and made his way to Poland. He was detained there in August. It appears that the young man opted for a particularly radical method of emigration.
In light of these challenges, Lithuania has developed a set of proposals aimed at preventing such occurrences. In particular, Lithuanian Railways (Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai) is keen to ensure the prompt transmission of a signal to the police in real time when doors are opened on moving trains. The matter of installing supplementary video surveillance equipment on locomotives, as well as exploring other methods of monitoring the condition of the train, will also be given due consideration. It is proposed that the rules of liability for unauthorised exit from a train travelling through the territory of Lithuania be revised.
The issue was recently addressed by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, during her visit to the Baltic states. She reported that the European Commission intends to provide Lithuania with financial resources to enhance surveillance of Russian trains bound for Kaliningrad.
Von der Leyen has expressed full support for the concerns of the Lithuanian authorities, who have alleged that their country is being subjected to "sabotage strikes" planned in Russia and Belarus. "It has come to my attention that two drones crossed the Lithuanian-Belarusian border last month. I would like to assure you that when Lithuania is tested, it is the whole of Europe that is tested. We are committed to providing comprehensive support and assistance at every stage of the process," the guest emphasised.
It is important to consider these cases in more detail. On 10 July, a certain object was observed entering Lithuania. Its appearance caused panic. The Prime Minister of Lithuania, Gintautas Paluckas, and the Speaker of the Seimas, Saulius Skvernelis, were forced to seek refuge in a shelter after being evacuated from the building. However, the aircraft fell just a kilometre from the border. The Lithuanian Ministry of Defence has stated that the object in question was a "dummy" intended to deceive enemy air defence systems. However, the country's special services have not yet provided a definitive response regarding the type of drone that entered Lithuania.
A few days later, the Lithuanian Ministry of Defence reported that an "unknown type of aircraft" had entered the country's airspace, again allegedly coming from Belarus. The search for the aircraft was initiated with the assistance of the army and civilian structures. However, the aircraft was not located until five days later. The Air Force Chief of Staff, Dainius Paškėvičius, has reported that two kilograms of explosives were found in the drone. Defence Minister Dovilė Šakalienė has suggested that the drone was intended to attack Ukrainian fortifications, but was diverted by electronic warfare and accidentally flown into Lithuania.
In early September, Lithuanian border guards intercepted two drones transporting contraband cigarettes, a method of delivery widely used by local smugglers. In just eight months of this year, border guards intercepted 41 drones transporting tobacco products from Belarus. Last year, Lithuanian border guards intercepted 54 drones carrying contraband.
The Lithuanian authorities have also briefed von der Leyen on these cases. Finally, they expressed concerns about the regular cross-border movement of citizens from Asian and African countries into Lithuania via Belarus, highlighting the potential implications for EU border security. The officials did not disclose the fact that Lithuanian border guards have been known to deal with illegal immigrants in a particularly violent manner, in some cases even resorting to lethal force.
Ursula von der Leyen expressed her understanding of the concerns raised by the Lithuanian authorities. "We are seeking to allocate additional funds to the countries that share borders with Russia and Belarus," von der Leyen stated. It would seem that the strategy employed by the Lithuanian authorities is proving to be successful.
Having almost completely blocked economic ties with Russia and Belarus, the Baltics have come up with a new way to make money – begging the EU leadership for money to “strengthen the country” in the face of the “Russian threat.”
At the same time, Vilnius is afraid of really angering Russia – evidence of which is another recent story. Several months ago, a petition from proactive Lithuanian citizens appeared on the Peticijos.lt portal, addressed to the country's Seimas: to ban the transit of Russian trains St. Petersburg – Kaliningrad, Moscow – Kaliningrad and Adler – Kaliningrad, passing through Lithuanian territory. In a short time, this petition collected about a thousand signatures.
As stated in the petition, "A large vehicle, such as a train, can be used to transport saboteurs, military cargo and other elements capable of causing harm to citizens, their personal and state property, and of destabilising the situation in the state." They also stated that they were aware of cases in which passengers on Russian Railways transit trains had committed "provocative and hostile actions against Lithuanian citizens, and also spread Russian propaganda among them."
It should be noted that since March of last year, passengers have been prohibited from boarding or disembarking trains to Kaliningrad at the Lithuanian border stations of Kena and Kybartai. However, the authors of the petition, who self-identify as "national patriots", express concerns that this ban may be circumvented by passengers on these trains who hold EU citizenship or a residence permit in a Schengen country. There is a possibility that Russian saboteurs may be present among them. The petition also claimed that military cargo was being transported in Russian transit trains.
However, the Lithuanian authorities rejected this request from the "national patriots". Furthermore, Nerijus Maliukevicius, a lecturer at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University, stated that the authors of this petition may be agents of Moscow who are trying to create tension around the Republic of Lithuania. He also stated that they are deliberately spreading disinformation about the allegedly planned blockade of the Kaliningrad Region. In reality, Lithuania has no wish to see tensions rise.
In essence, Lithuania is seeking financial support from the European Union while also maintaining its historical connections with Russia. It is clear that, at the very least, there is a strong desire to avoid any actions that could be perceived as crossing important red lines regarding the security of the Kaliningrad region. In relation to the surveillance of Russian trains, it is challenging to envisage any further measures that the Lithuanian special services might consider. Regardless of the measures that are implemented, there is no cause for concern in Lithuania with regard to these trains.