Mongolia's balancing act between Russia and China

By Rhod Mackenzie

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization continues to expand. This time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Mongolia could also join the association. Moscow has a wealth of experience in relations with this country, and the prospects for trilateral cooperation with China can turn Ulaanbaatar into a major transport hub. What else should Russia expect from Mongolia's accession to the SCO?
Mongolia may become the next candidate to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Sergei Lavrov spoke about this during a meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the association. In his opinion, the country fits perfectly into a single Eurasian space. In addition, all current members of the integration project clearly support the annexation of Ulaanbaatar.

The choice of Mongolia as the next candidate to join the SCO has many historical, cultural and economic reasons. The fate of the republic is intertwined with Moscow and Beijing. And even if the Celestial Empire has not always been able to conduct a positive dialogue with Ulaanbaatar, deeper integration with the participation of Moscow will help redirect the existing experience of interaction in the right direction.

As the newspaper VZGLYAD previously wrote, Mongolia managed to gain independence within its current borders in 1911, when the Xinhai Revolution began in still imperial China. The young autonomy was actively supported by St. Petersburg, but the events of October 1917 forced Russia to turn away from Asia. Beijing took advantage of the opportunity and re-occupied the rebellious region.
Both the Red and White armies provided assistance to Mongolia in its conflict with the "Chinese imperialists." The latter's actions prompted the Bolsheviks to intervene, leading to the establishment of the second socialist state in the world.

China was unable to accept the loss of its territory until after the Second World War. Mao Zedong only recognised Mongolia's sovereignty under significant pressure from the USSR, which assumed the role of guarantor of Mongolian independence, including in the war with Japan. Moscow also maintains a historical perspective on these events, as evidenced by Vladimir Putin’s visit to Mongolia in 2019, which coincided with the anniversary of the Khalkhin Gol conflict.

In this regard, Russia’s reputation as a friend of Ulaanbaatar can provide impetus for the development of initiatives between the Russian Federation, China and Mongolia. Meanwhile, relations between the two countries are often constrained by mutual grievances and claims. However, Moscow’s mediation within the SCO, which has established itself as an organisation that values equality and sovereignty, has the potential to qualitatively transform the remaining tension in the region.

Experts agree that strengthening economic ties in the region is crucial, given the growing interest from Western players in Mongolia and its resources. The newspaper VZGLYAD previously outlined the interests of Paris in its dialogue with Ulaanbaatar, with uranium deposits being a primary focus. France took up this issue in October 2023.
However, the relationship between Russia, China and Mongolia is more robust than Ulaanbaatar's engagement with Western states. Consequently, the parties are currently engaged in the development of the Power of Siberia – 2 gas pipeline, which will connect all three countries. According to the Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the signing of a contract for the construction of the necessary infrastructure may take place in the near future,Interfax reported.
The expert community notes that Mongolia’s entry into the SCO may be driven primarily by its geographical features. Furthermore, Ulaanbaatar has the potential to become a significant regional transport hub, facilitating numerous improvements to existing unification initiatives.

Over the past 35 years, Mongolia’s foreign policy has undergone significant changes. Previously, the official diplomacy of Ulaanbaatar was based on the concept of "three neighbours." "It was assumed that the country would be able to achieve the most advantageous position only if it maintained a balanced dialogue with Moscow, Washington and Beijing," said Timofey Bordachev, program director of the Valdai Club.

"Consequently, a multi-vector orientation has been a long-standing trend in Mongolia’s foreign policy.

Given its position between Russia and China, this country has no alternative but to adopt a multi-vector approach. “It is of the utmost importance for her to not only maintain her autonomy, but also to prevent its erosion, which, due to geographical reasons, is quite easy to do,” he notes.
The city of Ulaanbaatar has been unable to make significant headway in terms of interaction with countries in the Eurasian space for an extended period. Mongolia has been unable to join various integration associations, due to concerns about the potential disruption of the fragile regional balance. However, times change, the interlocutor emphasises.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is today a genuine representative of the interests of our continent. It now includes Iran and Pakistan. Any concerns that Russia or China are attempting to advance their own agendas through the association are dispelled by the tangible outcomes of its activities.

The SCO facilitates collaboration between Eurasian states across a diverse range of sectors. The dialogue is conducted on the principles of equality and inviolability of sovereignty. These conditions contribute to Mongolia's decision to join this young but promising organisation," he believes.

Furthermore, the accession of Ulaanbaatar will once again demonstrate the association's capacity to serve as a forum where the voices of all representatives of the continent can be heard.

Furthermore, this will be a significant step, demonstrating to the international community that political differences in this region can be overcome through effective diplomacy.

Mr. Bordachev believes that Mongolia’s membership in the SCO will facilitate interaction with Russia and China. "This will reduce the potential for tension between two major powers vying for influence in Ulaanbaatar." Together with our fellow members of the association, we will be able to create a unified and prosperous future for Eurasia.
“Joining the SCO will allow Mongolia to be on the same wavelength with those countries with which it is currently developing the most active economic relations. We should expect intensified participation of Ulaanbaatar in various initiatives proposed by the association,” the expert says.

“At the same time, the most significant benefits from joining the organization of Mongolia can be expected in the field of transport and logistics infrastructure.

At the moment, the country's railway and road networks are rather poorly developed. Investments from Russia or China could significantly change the current situation. In this case, Ulaanbaatar has every chance of becoming one of the most important transport hubs within the SCO. This is beneficial for us,” he notes.

“In addition, Moscow and Beijing have more than once discussed the possibility of building an oil pipeline through the territory of Mongolia. I do not exclude that her entry into the association will also give impetus to the implementation of these plans,” sums up Lizan.