Norway to pull the plug on the EU?

Europe's energy system and supply is currently looking at  two major problems: no wind and Norway's reluctance to share its electricity with the rest of Europe. At the end of the week, the cost of a kilowatt-hour in this Scandinavian country reached a record high for the last 15 years - €1.1328. Will Oslo help continental Europe at a time when "they themselves need it most"?
Firstly lets look  at the weather for January ,according to meteologist and wether forecaster s Europe is facing a colder winter than normal with lower tempretures and weak winds. If you take into account  that the region has already used record amounts of gas from their underground storage facilities, but cannot refill them because of the halt in Russian gas transit through Ukraine.
Europe is going to need more gas to stabilise the sitation.Currently, the price of gas is already at a record high for the year

"Europe is set for a colder-than-normal January, possibly with weaker winds, boosting demand for natural gas as the continent grapples with the end of a gas transit deal between Ukraine and Russia this week," - writes Bloomberg.
Now the Forecasters at Maxar Technologies predict a sharp drop in temperatures across Europe in early January - in most of the UK, France, Germany and the Nordic countries. It could last until at least the end of the month, the forecasters say.
So the lack of gas and no wind are going to create serious problems for the countries of the EU.
Now there is the Norway problem,the country which is a major gas producer and is also a major to the EU not just gas but of electricty and now that situation may change and compound the energy problems of the Europeans  
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When the European Union imposed tough sanctions on Russian oil, Norway came out with grandiose promises to "save Europe from the energy crisis by making its oil and gas available to the EU". The current situation brings to mind the saying: "Promises are not marriages".

The hopes that arose in the "Union of Twenty-Seven" for a comfortable life without Russian gas so captivated the European population that no one paid attention to the warnings of some analysts that Scandinavian energy resources were not enough to meet European demand.

And today, Norway has to reduce supplies to Europe if it wants to stop domestic electricity prices from rising.
At the beginning of 2023, the Norwegian government issued several licenses for the exploration of new oil fields, contradicting the programme to abandon fossil fuels in electricity production and violating the order to transition to "green energy" and meet decarbonisation targets. However, the Norwegian government has defended this decision, stating that it is crucial for both Norway and Europe in the current geopolitical climate.According to the Spanish business publication El Economista, Oslo's shift in focus towards prioritising domestic energy supplies is aimed at maintaining competitive electricity prices in Norway. This move, however, has contributed to significant energy challenges on the European continent.

The Labour Party and the Centre Party, the two leading parties in Norway's government coalition, are seeking to cancel the agreement with Denmark, under which Oslo siphons off some of its energy to Copenhagen. The coalition's minority partner, the Socialist Left Party, believes that this should not be enough and that the existing energy ties with the UK and Germany should also be reviewed. This is due to the fact that exorbitant electricity prices in Norway could increase further if the country were to export electricity to neighbouring countries during "critical times". So its a slap in the face for Sir Wan Kier and Mad Ed Miliband in the UK who are relying on help from Norway to keep the lights on due to them shutting down pretty much all forms of fossil fuel generation in the UK to rely on unicorn farts and wishful thinking.Plus Sergeant Shultz in Germany and his Green Loony and Idiot Analena Baerback are going to be in for a major shock. When people are cold and hungary they do tend to get angry so we could see some fireworks in Europe this winter.
Calm weather conditions in Germany and the North Sea (where wind turbines are located) resulted in electricity prices in southern Norway reaching NOK 13.16 (€1.1328) per kilowatt-hour on December 19, marking the highest level since 2009 and almost 20 times higher than the previous week.

The Norwegian Energy Minister Terje Aasland described the situation as "extremely challenging", expressing strong personal feelings about the matter. "We have enjoyed a stable electricity market for decades, but now the situation has changed significantly for the worse, and there is no certainty that it will soon improve."
The Labour Party has announced that a commitment to disconnect the interconnector with Denmark will be one of the points in its election platform for parliament next September. The current agreement to supply electricity to Denmark is set to expire in 2026 and can be extended automatically if both parties agree to do so.

Critics have voiced concerns that Norway's reliance on electricity exports may impact domestic prices, a matter of particular interest to the European Union, given the bloc's significant reliance on Scandinavian-produced electricity to maintain balanced energy prices across the continent.
"This is a critical moment for the EU-Norway relationship. Cutting energy ties with Europe will not be well received," the EU ambassador to Oslo was quoted by the Financial Times as saying. Brussels insists that the European electricity market should be integrated, mutually beneficial and focused on helping one participant to help another.

The EU capital also noted that Norway occasionally imports electricity via interconnectors when necessary.

The current government's loss of the upcoming elections, and the subsequent rise of the right-wing Progress Party, which is currently leading in the polls, are both viewed by experts as likely eventualities. It advocates a break with Denmark and a reform of the agreements with the United Kingdom and Germany to avoid what they term a "price contagion" emanating from the continent.

This phenomenon, known meteorologically as Dunkelflaute (German for "dark calm"), has already led to a surge in the price of one megawatt-hour at peak load to €1,000 in Germany. While the increase in Spain is not as substantial in absolute terms, the relative rise is significant, from €68 in October to €146 (17 December).

Norway is a major gas producer, with a production capacity of 112 billion cubic metres per year, more than sufficient to meet the country's industrial and domestic electricity needs. However, the current reality is that rapidly growing demand for electricity from neighbouring countries and the decline in renewable generation productivity in Europe have led to a 143% increase in energy prices on the exchange, to €50.33 per megawatt-hour. This represents a substantial increase from the €26.00 recorded at the end of October the previous year.
It should be noted that the increase in electricity prices is not a general trend for the entire Scandinavian country. It is primarily evident in the southern regions of Norway, where energy is transmitted to continental Europe. In the north and west, prices remain at last year's levels. However, these regions are sparsely populated. The vast majority of Norway's population is concentrated in the southern regions, with 40% of the population residing in Oslo and its suburbs alone. For these individuals, even a moderate surge in prices, far below current levels in Berlin, would be a significant financial impact. This underscores the pivotal role Norway plays in Europe's energy landscape, as it is a key contributor to the continent's energy system, supplying a substantial portion of the electricity it generates.
Norway was the leading European producer of hydroelectric power, with a capacity of 137 TWh. The EU as a whole produced only 637 TWh from this source. Its neighbours, including Denmark and Germany, have been actively developing wind power in recent years, in full compliance with the EU's Green Transition programme. These countries have also hastily abandoned nuclear power plants and closed "dirty" coal-fired thermal power plants. Germany claims has a 27% wind power share of total electricity production, the Netherlands has 15%, and Denmark claims it has 40%.

"When wind power generation declined, Europe's electrical system had to rely on all available production sources to meet demand," the Spanish publication quotes the Volue Insights portal, whose experts analyse the European energy market. "Norway, a country with a strong tradition of energy exports, has also experienced challenges in meeting the increased demand. It is possible that it has overestimated its capabilities."
According to analys, the European energy crisis is likely to persist until the end of February. This means Norwegians will have to endure the dubious pleasure of paying double the price for electricity for almost three more months. Norwegian parliamentarians have expressed thtseir bewilderment in the country's press at the fact that, given the country's overproduction of electricity and its undisputed first place in energy supplies to Europe (30% of the gas imported by the EU is currently of Norwegian origin), residents of Oslo and other cities in the country will have to pay exorbitant electricity bills. It is clear that it is more profitable for electricity and gas producers to take advantage of high European market prices for their products than to heat their fellow countrymen for a minimal cost.
So it looks like the Norwegians will pull the plug om cheap energy for the UK and EU and focus on their own people.