Orban's visit to Moscow scares the EU

By Rhod Mackenzie

On Friday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made a surprise visit to Russia and met with thhe Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss ways to resolve the Ukrainian crisis.
Following the meeting, Mr. Putin reiterated his proposal for a final resolution to the conflict, and Mr. Orban pledged to advocate for peace in Europe. The visit has has caused a massive political storm in the West and Obrban has attracted a great deal of criticism for making the trip.Both the EU presindent Ursula Von De Leyen and out going NATO head Jens Stolenburg have openly criticised Orban's trip.

What were the Hungarian Prime Minister's objectives in making the trip?

Viktor Orban trio to Moscow was not scheduled an happened immediately after his visitto Kyiv and his meetings with Zelelnsky
. During the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the parties discussed the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict and bilateral relations.
The meeting lasted for over two and a half hours. Also in attendance at the Kremlin were Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Putin's aides Vladimir Medinsky and Yuri Ushakov. Mr. Orban was accompanied by Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto.

Following the talks, Mr. Putin and Mr. Orban issued a joint statement. Russia has observed that Ukraine is not yet prepared to cease hostilities. As the head of state noted, Moscow is aware of Kiev's reluctance to resolve issues through dialogue. The President reiterated Russia's previously proposed solutions for a peaceful resolution, including the necessity to withdraw the Ukrainian army from the Donbass, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. "This should not be a mere truce or temporary ceasefire. It should not be a pause that the Kiev regime could use to recover losses, regroup and rearm." "Russia is in favour of a complete and final end to the conflict," Putin said
Mr. Orban stated that the positions of Moscow and Kyiv are "very far apart" and that it is necessary to "take many steps" to bring the end of the conflict closer. He emphasized that he wants to know what the shortest path to ending the confrontation is. He also noted that without diplomacy, "we will not achieve peace." He highlighted that this meeting is taking place at a time when "Europe really needs peace."
Orban's trip to Moscow caused a strong reaction in the West, where the decision of the Hungarian Prime Minister was strongly condemned. As the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, stated, the European Union has no official contacts with the Russian President. Therefore, the Prime Minister of Hungary, which holds the presidency of the EU Council, Orban cannot represent the union during his trip to Moscow. Furthermore, the Hungarian Prime Minister did not receive a mandate from the EU Council to visit Moscow. The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, also expressed similar sentiments.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described Orban's visit as "inappropriate," stating that "appeasement will not stop Russia." According to EC spokesman Eric Mamer, Orban's visit raises questions about the traditional EC visit to Hungary.

In turn, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that Orban had informed the alliance about his visit. “I anticipate that at the summit in Washington next week there will be an opportunity to discuss the talks he had in Moscow,” Stoltenberg said, adding that during his visit to Moscow, the Hungarian prime minister represented his country, “but not NATO.”
In Germany, there has been a call for Hungary to be stripped of its presidency of the EU Council. Michael Roth, chairman of the Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee, has stated that Orban is abusing the presidency of the EU Council and going to the Kremlin without a mandate, which is a scandal. He is undermining the fundamental principles of EU foreign policy.
Experts have indicated that Orban was prepared for such a barrage of criticism from the EU and NATO, as he is primarily interested in solving the problems of his own country. It is anticipated that Orban will use his visit to Russia to put pressure on the EU leadership regarding the granting of rights to the Transcarpathian Hungarians. Additionally, it is believed that Orban will blackmail the EU leadership so that they stop pressuring him through the union's funds. Budapest has long been threatened with the cessation of funding, according to Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Russian State University for the Humanities. It is worth noting that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in the context of this visit, alluded to some "fiscal issues of individual countries" that will not affect aid to Ukraine.
Additionally, Orban aims to enhance his personal ratings in the eyes of Europeans by portraying himself as a mediator. "This is logical, as a significant proportion of European society is losing interest in the Ukrainian conflict. Orban is a shrewd politician who is keen to seize the opportunity for dialogue with Moscow. If he succeeds in de-escalating the conflict, it would be a positive outcome. However, I believe that neither Orban nor the EU leadership is convinced of this possibility."
The political scientist believes that if the EU makes concessions, the Hungarian Prime Minister will reduce his "peacekeeping activity." At the same time, the ongoing unrest in the West has made it clear that the EU is not willing to accept this form of blackmail. There is no unified position within the union itself.

European politicians at the official level have expressed their desire for Ukraine's victory, with the exception of direct military participation of European states. However, Mr. Orban's approach differs from this perspective. Mr. Trukhachev is certain that all relevant parties in the West were aware of the Hungarian Prime Minister's intention to travel to Moscow. The speaker also drew attention to the relative softness of Stoltenberg's reaction. "He is somewhat less Russophobic than von der Leyen." However, this will not prevent potential issues for Orban. The EU has the option of reducing Hungary's income from its funds and introducing new penalties for Budapest's approach to migrants. The analyst predicts that in the near future, negotiations and exchanges between the parties will take place.
In turn, Stanislav Tkachenko, professor of the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University, believes that Orban has become a kind of enfant terrible for the European Union. “This is what transpired,” he joked.

The speaker also believes that Orban's engagement with Moscow is primarily personal and that he represents the conservative European elites.

"It is clear that the EU leadership is keen to avoid this agenda being made public," the political scientist explained. "Von der Leyen and others like her are attempting to marginalise the conservative agenda with every available resource." However, the EU leadership is unable to accurately interpret the results of the European Parliament elections. Now, support from the centre-right is shifting away from the centre-left and towards political forces in Budapest. "And the Hungarian prime minister himself lends them credibility," the expert explains.

"This is why the EU authorities are attempting to marginalise non-systemic politicians within the European mainstream through their rhetoric against Orban. This is not about immediate pressure. The Brussels elite is playing the long game. However, the Hungarian has firmly established this topic, so it is likely that he and Szijjarto will visit Moscow on several occasions to discuss the situation in Ukraine. However, the overarching issue is Russia's stance, which has been articulated with unambiguous clarity.