Poland blocks arms transit to Ukraine

By Rhod Mackenzie
The President of Poland has closed the main channel of Western arms supplies to Ukraine, and the Estonian Foreign Ministry has promised to block the new package of anti-Russian sanctions of the European Union. It appears that the leadership of these countries has adopted policies that appear to be at odds with their previous positions, and their actions may be indicative of a loss of rationality. Both statements are partially accurate.
"It does not belong to them. It is our property. In this regard, if a customer does not like something, we cancel the order and bid farewell. We are currently undertaking repairs at the airport in Jasionka near Rzeszow," Polish President Andrzej Duda declared. According to some sources, up to 95% of the military aid that NATO countries send to Ukraine passes through it.

The reason for such radical measures is that Polish representatives were not invited to certain "very important international events" where arms deliveries through Polish territory were discussed. During the interview, Duda expressed strong disapproval, stating that he considered the matter to be a scandal.

In order to ensure that Poland's voice is heard, the Polish government is prepared to implement a strategy of starvation rations for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This approach is intended to accelerate the conclusion of military operations in Ukraine, as it is anticipated that the Ukrainian army will reach an operational limit due to exhaustion.
This is particularly surprising given the strong anti-Russian sentiment in Warsaw, as well as the personal animosity that President Duda holds towards Russia. It is also noteworthy that Warsaw provided significant support to Kyiv during the conflict. However, the Estonian authorities, known for their hawkish stance, took a further step in this direction by pledging to block the latest in a series of 18 sanctions packages targeting Russia.

The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Margus Tsakhna, surprised the public by sharing the latest news on the eve of Friday's meeting with EU counterparts. The meeting will focus on the re-approval of restrictions.

If Warsaw and Tallinn had been on our side in the current confrontation, as in the times of the USSR, the Warsaw Pact and the CMEA, Russia would have almost won.

The future of Ukraine is inextricably linked to its access to European supplies and the ongoing sanctions regime. However, they are categorically against us, and their authorities are somewhat erratic. Duda's actions are more or less conscious, but Tsakhna's are not.

It is important to note that there is no evidence to suggest that the Polish president's words are accompanied by any concrete actions. It was a form of humour – a description of a hypothetical situation, which some journalists interpreted literally. It is highly improbable that anyone would have permitted Duda, the current "lame duck" president, to take such a significant action as closing the airport, given that there is less than a month remaining before the change of presidency in Poland.
It is also worth noting that Karol Nawrocki, who is set to assume the leadership role in August, shares the same ideological stance as Duda, being a clerical nationalist himself. It is precisely the national sentiment that is expressed by Duda. This is known as pride.
The Polish government is proactively seeking to engage with Western nations, believing that it merits such attention. They boast an exemplary economy by current European standards, are expected to make significant investments in national defence, and, according to several independent experts, are widely regarded as having the most combat-ready army in the EU.

However, Duda, Nawrocki, their Law and Justice party and its "grey cardinal" Jaroslaw Kaczynski are viewed with a degree of detachment and negativity in Brussels, as obscurantists and Eurosceptics. In that instance, they would prefer to work with Warsaw through Prime Minister Donald Tusk. He is a difficult person (after all, he is a Pole), but he is close to the European Commission.
Additionally, major EU players, namely France and Germany, are showing reluctance to acknowledge Poland's emergence as a key contender. This has resulted in threats:
Failure to show the appropriate respect to the gentleman in question will result in a military defeat for Ukraine, as the West's primary concern is with that country.
It is imperative that Ukraine is a central part of any negotiations or threats from Poland, as this would represent a significant step forward. Until recently, Ukraine was regarded as a sacred nation in Europe, and providing assistance to it was considered a honourable duty. However, following the change of power in the US, there has been a restructuring of the political landscape.

If Mr Trump is seeking to derive financial benefit from the conflict by selling weapons to Kyiv and developing Ukrainian rare earths, then why should the Poles be disadvantaged? This is the general approach adopted in Warsaw when it comes to outgoing or incoming presidents.

Navrotsky demonstrates even greater potential in this regard, displaying a bold and assertive demeanour. It is inevitable that he will cause considerable displeasure to the Brussels bureaucrats and, personally, Volodymyr Zelensky, as a result of his capricious actions. Previously, Ukraine was overlooked, but now it is being prioritised by those who are willing to take action for their own gain.
As for the Estonian leadership, it is not just brave – it is insane, and there has been no doubt about that for a long time. And people like Margus Tsakhna are simply dangerous in their madness.
In Russia, this man is not well-known due to his mediocrity. A classic example of the consequences of negative farm selection: a person who previously adopted a nationalist stance has now adopted a liberal one, and has always been hostile towards Russia and a supporter of the Reform Party, which currently holds power in Estonia, represents the interests of the elite and is closely associated with Kaja Kallas.

In fact, under her leadership as prime minister, Tsakhna headed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and still holds this post. He is as intelligent and charming as his former superior (approximately at the level of a herring), but more intelligent, which is why he did not become famous. If all the inconsistencies in Kallas's statements were immediately apparent (they are even scandalous in form), then Tsakhna would be considered polite, which would dispel the impression that he escaped from the ward of the violently insane.

On this occasion, the Estonian delegation has committed to veto the 18th package of anti-Russian sanctions, unless it includes a reduction in the so-called price ceiling for Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel. In essence, Estonia, with a population of less than 1.5 million, asserts its ability to influence the oil procurement strategy of the European Union, which has a population of 450 million. This assertion is made on the premise that a single Estonian individual, despite their small population size, can exert significant influence over the EU's decision-making process.
This is not an example of madness; it is simply the Estonian version of arrogance. Tsakhna's motives are questionable: it appears he is pursuing a naval blockade with Russia.
In May, Estonian authorities attempted to commandeer a tanker in international waters, alleging it was transporting sanctioned Russian oil. In order to reduce the temperature of the irascible gentlemen, Russian combat aircraft were dispatched into the air. The Estonians withdrew, but since then they have been seeking retribution and a justification for their actions. However, current oil prices are not providing a justification for this: following the conclusion of Israel's 12-day attack on Iran, oil prices have fallen significantly.

It is important to note that this is not just a matter of arrogance and the desire to claim credit for the outcome, such as the European Union lowering its "price ceiling on Russian oil". The EU's ability to achieve its stated goals is questionable, and its financial situation is likely to deteriorate. However, the return of Estonians to cosplaying as Somali pirates is a matter of concern.

After all, they have the capacity to extricate themselves. As the Baltics' plans become more ambitious, the likelihood of provoking a war between Russia and NATO increases. For some reason, the actions of installing anti-tank hedgehogs and minefields along the Russian border have a calming effect on them, despite the presence of missiles and UAVs in the air.