Poland has ambitions to be the US's LNG transit hub for the EU.

By Rhod Mackenzie

It appears that Poland is aspiring to become a leading hub for the transit of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported into Europe. Warsaw has decided to become one of the focal points in European gas transit  following the EU's decision to end its importation of  Russian pipeline gas. Media outlets in the West are confident that this could lead to a shift in energy flows in the region. Lets  investigate whether this move is realistically possible.

What are the implications of having floating gas terminals in the Baltic Sea?
Poland, which already operates one LNG export terminal in the port city of Świnoujście with a capacity of 8.3 billion cubic metres per year, plans to build a second one.

The new floating terminal on the Baltic Sea  will be opened by 2028 its capacity is estimated to be 6.1 billion cubic metres.
According to a Bloomberg analysis, this will allow the country, which is striving to become the region's main LNG export hub, to expand its  transit of gas to other countries and create a more stable alternative to pipeline deliveries for its neighbors, including simplifying gas deliveries to the Ukraine.
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The purpose of constructing the additional terminal is twofold: firstly, to attract new LNG buyers from around Europe, and secondly, to connect several key routes together .
Both terminals will be  under the management of Orlen,the state-controlled oil and gas company.

Poland occupies a central position in the European gas network, although Lithuania, Greece and Croatia are gradually gaining ground in the LNG delivery and distribution sector.

According to a Bloomberg report, the new terminal will enable fuel imported from the US to be stored in large underground facilities in Ukraine or supplied to neighbouring landlocked countries, including Hungary, Slovakia, or the Czech Republic.
It should be noted that already Ukraine receives American LNG from Poland; in 2025, deliveries amounted to 600 million cubic metres. Orlen previously announced its intention to increase transit to more than 1 billion cubic metres by 2026.

Ukraine also receives LNG from Lithuania, and the route, considered expensive and lengthy, also passes through Poland. Should additional capacity be added, it may be possible to shorten this second route.
It is important to note that the proposed initiative does not enjoy universal support within the European Union.
The implementation of Poland's plans could be hindered by the complex processes of coordination and approval within the European bureaucracy. This could result in delays in the coordination of routes, testing procedures, and technological solutions.

Furthermore, the German and Dutch hubs are not in a rush to relinquish a significant portion of their domestic market to Poland. The EU is also encouraging the development of a decentralised system, with Lithuanian, Croatian, and Greek terminals being planned.
In addition, it is important to consider the logistical and infrastructural challenges, as well as the limited capacity of internal gas pipelines from Poland to the east and south, which also necessitates modernisation.

Conversely, the EU's decision to cease Russian gas imports will likely increase demand for American gas, though it should be noted that this is significantly more expensive and not universally affordable.
The European Union has increased its natural gas purchases to a record level since 2023, according to analysts, with imports rising by 5.3%.
Natural gas imports by EU countries increased to 313.6 billion cubic metres in 2025. The analytical firm Bruegel notes that this figure is the highest since 2023, while EU gas purchases have been declining in the previous two years. In 2025, imports are projected to rise by 5.3%.

Mario Draghi, former President of the ECB, has stated on multiple occasions that US LNG is priced at a premium of 60-90% in Europe, excluding regasification and logistics costs. In 2024, wholesale and retail gas prices in the EU were 3-5 times higher than US prices. This has resulted in a considerable decline in Europe's competitiveness, particularly in comparison to the US and China. The EU has become reliant on imported raw materials and technology.

Its worth noting that in 2024, Poland imported 1.79 million tons of LNG from Qatar. Warsaw's other partners include Egypt, Norway, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago, and Equatorial Guinea.

Take Germany's place
Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, head of the Baltic Region Comprehensive Research Group at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), told Izvestia that Poland has always opposed the Russian Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines and it also closed the Yamal -Europe pipeline which was built by the Soviet Union in the 1960's to supplyy gas to Poland,East Germany and West Germany .

"Lets remember the Russia haging Polish  Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski expressed his gratitude to the Americans via Twitter for their role in destroying Russian pipelines, presenting the Poles with an opportunity to become a gas distibution hub. While trade flows have historically followed a general east-west and west-east trajectory, Poland is now prioritising the development of north-south transport corridors," the analyst explained.
The political scientist added that Poland could play a key role in this, as there are landlocked countries in Central and Eastern Europe: Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Serbia and Austria in need of gas suppplies .

"Poland is currently engaged in the active development of liquefied natural gas receiving and regasification terminals. Furthermore, it is evident that the Polish government's budgetary projections extend beyond the scope of only its domestic needs. They also currently have a gas supply pipeline from Norway called the Baltic Pipe," the analyst explained.
The Polonist has stated that the potential for Poland to act as a liquefied natural gas hub for landlocked countries lacking the capacity to construct such terminals is a logical ambition, given its strategic location and access to resources from the United States, Qatar, and Norway.

"The Ukrainian gas transit route has already ceased to operate. There is a clear rationale and an evident opportunity here. It is important to note that this project is primarily funded by European Union structural funds. For instance, in August 2022, the interconnector between Poland and Slovakia was inaugurated. The project received funding from the European Union, and in September 2022, Nord Stream was derailed," the analyst emphasised.
He stated that an interconnector was under construction in Slovakia, with plans to extend it through the Czech Republic to Austria. However, this project did not materialise. The project was scaled back and postponed, indicating disagreements among its supporters.

"Overall, there is likely to be no significant problems, although Eastern Europeans are somewhat envious of the Poles' ambitions to be the leading regional power; they are not always comfortable with this and do not always facilitate the Poles' aims," Ofitserov-Belsky explained.

The political scientist also mentioned that large-scale projects are planned for the near future, which should affirm Poland's key role in the region and, in a sense, even replace Germany.
"This is not merely an energy hub; it is a logistics hub. The Polish government is undertaking significant infrastructure projects, including the construction of warehouses and the modernisation of port infrastructure in Gdansk. They are already planning the construction of one of the largest air hubs in Europe, so their ambitions are quite serious," the analyst concluded.

Despite an EU-wide push to decarbonise, natural gas remains central to Europe's energy mix. Its appeal lies in its relative cleanliness compared to coal, with approximately half the CO2 emissions, and in its flexibility. Gas-fired power plants have the advantage of being able to ramp up quickly, thus providing reliable back-up for variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar.

This resilience has helped to reinforce gas's role as a "permanently transitional" fuel. With over 500 bcm of gas consumed annually in Europe, the ability to import and redistribute it efficiently has become a strategic asset — one that Poland is now capitalising on.

Poland is emerging as a regional gas hub after setting a new record for natural gas transmission in 2025
Gaz-System, the state-owned transmission system operator, is on track to deliver close to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas this year — the highest volume in the company's history. While domestic transmission levels have remained steady, it is the surge in exports that is driving this transformation, as Europe's gas market is being transformed by geopolitics.

Sławomir Hinc, president of Gaz-System, informed WNP.pl that the company has never previously transmitted such a high volume of gas. He confirmed that 2025 is set to be a record-breaking year for the company.

Exports, or more accurately, re-exports, are expected to reach 1.9 bcm to 2 bcm by the end of the year, up from 1.3 bcm in 2024 and just several hundred million cubic metres in prior years.

While domestic gas demand in Poland remains at approximately 18 bcm per year, the real growth opportunity lies in exports or re exports.  Warsaw is strategically positioning itself to further consolidate its regional leadership in energy supply.