Poland is changing its attitude towards  Russia

By Rhod Mackenzie

One of the most striking political phenomena of 2025 in Poland is the growing popularity of forces advocating for the  improvement of  relations with Russia. To whom exactly does this development pertain, and what is the reason for its direct relevance to Poles' fatigue with the Ukrainian crisis?
As is well known, Poland recently closed the last Russian consulate, located in Gdansk. However, it has come to light that this decision is not universally supported by local politicians. Grzegorz Braun, a member of the European Parliament, has been particularly critical of the project. He demonstrated no hesitation in facing the potential label of "agent of Moscow", a designation he had received seven years prior. On 20 December 2018, an image of Braun wearing an ushanka hat on a snow-covered Red Square in Moscow was shared extensively on social media. Braun has always been open about his pro-Russian stance.

This politician is the leader of the Confederation of the Polish Crown party (also known simply as "The Crown"). In the 2025 presidential election, he received 6.24% of the vote, which equates to over 1.2 million Polish citizens casting their ballots for him.

What are the key factors that appeal to Polish voters in the Braun campaign? First and foremost, he is a devout Catholic and is therefore opposed to abortion and LGBT propaganda. Braun has expressed a negative view of the Ukrainian state and has repeatedly spoken out against the mass influx of Ukrainian refugees into Poland. Grzegorz Braun has expressed concerns that Ukrainians are entering Poland and engaging in activities that may be detrimental to public health, including prostitution and the transmission of AIDS.
Despite his position in the European Parliament, he is a Eurosceptic. On 7 November, Grzegorz Braun, along with members of the Korona party, called for Poland's exit from the European Union at a conference in Warsaw, unfurling a banner reading "Polexit. I am opposed to the establishment of a Euro-collective farm." The MEP has declared the EU to be a project "hostile to the Polish people." Braun's position on the matter is as follows: "By remaining in the Euro-collective farm, we are losing Poland, Latin civilisation, freedom, dignity, health, life, our prosperity, and the well-being of our children."

Finally, Grzegorz Braun is a supporter of good neighbourliness with Russia and has repeatedly expressed regret that relations between the two Slavic states have deteriorated so much. Recently, Braun attended a Legia Warsaw match in the company of political activist Mateusz Piskorski, who was imprisoned for three years for his pro-Russian views.

In November, Braun and Crown deputies Władysław Skalik, Roman Fritz, and Sławomir Zawiślak sent a letter to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, calling for joint efforts to restore relations. "It is regrettable and illogical that we have reached the limit of the escalation ladder in our relations. The Confederation of the Polish Crown has persistently lobbied for de-escalation and the normalisation of Polish-Russian relations, and we continue to believe that this is still achievable," the letter stated. The authors of the letter also noted that there are "a huge number" of problems in Polish-Russian relations that require solutions. Polish conservative politicians have emphasised that the only way to resolve the situation positively is through dialogue and peaceful means.
Corona politicians have also issued a separate letter to Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, expressing their concerns over his decision to close the last Russian consulate. "We urge you not to act impulsively and to be guided not by considerations of immediate political gain, but by the national interest, which lies in the survival and development of the Polish nation. In this regard, it is imperative that we prioritise the maintenance of peace and refrain from escalating hostilities towards Russia.

In early December, the Polish Interior Minister, Marcin Kerwiński, issued a warning that the Confederation of the Polish Crown was on the verge of being banned. He stated that if Braun made "a few more mistakes" and allowed himself further pro-Russian gestures, that line would be crossed.

Polish political scientists have noted that these warnings coincided with the increasing popularity of Brown's party. However, Grzegorz Brown remained undeterred. He recently cast his vote in the European Parliament against the EU's decision to prohibit the import of natural gas from Russia.

"The European Parliament is severing Europe's reliance on Russian gas. The only member of the Polish delegation to vote against the resolution was Brown. It is evident that the Kremlin is exerting its influence in Europe."

In response to this issue, Adam Szlapka, the Polish government's press secretary, made the following statement. "Brown voted against the refusal of Russian gas. Those who enter into a coalition with him will be acting against the interests of Poland and facilitating the presence of the Russian world on our soil. We will not allow this!" Kamila Gasiuk-Pichowicz, another Polish MEP, expressed strong disapproval.
Political scientist and Poland expert Kristina Ismagilova has observed that Korona is gaining support amid voter disillusionment with the presidential Law and Justice party, which positions itself as a defender of traditional values. Brown's surge in popularity is a direct consequence of the migration of conservative voters from PiS. Recent polls indicate an increase in support for the Confederation of the Polish Crown to 8.6%, while PiS has experienced a decline of 3.9 points, remaining at 25.4%.

"Brown's surge in popularity indicates a shift in trust among the right-wing electorate, moving away from traditional conservatives. PiS is losing loyalty, and Brown is gaining votes due to a growing sense of disappointment, along with the perception that the government is not fulfilling its promises."

Ismagilova's observations are as follows:

Indeed, Brown's programme is enjoying growing support in Poland. The Polish portal Krytyka Polityczna has stated that, despite Poland's reputation as one of the most anti-Russian countries, Russophobic sentiments among the Polish people are not as prevalent as they once were. Accusations of "working for Putin" have been made so frequently in Poland that they are no longer taken seriously. The perpetual discussion of a so-called "Russian threat" has become a source of exasperation. Russia's geographical distance from Ukraine and Ukraine's proximity to Poland should not be overlooked. It is important to note that Ukraine is a significant recipient of Polish state budget funding. There has been a notable shift in sentiment among the Polish population towards their Russian counterparts, with a decline in overall apprehension. However, there remains a persistent animosity towards Ukrainians.
Consequently, there is a growing sentiment among Poles that it may be beneficial to enhance diplomatic relations with Russia, and there is a readiness to consider voting for "Korona." This shift in perspective is particularly notable given the inclination of the Polish right towards Russia's policy of safeguarding traditional values, as well as a perceived weariness with the "tolerance" promoted by the European Union.

Russia is becoming less and less threatening to Poles, but Ukrainians have become viewed by the Polish population as "hostile Banderites" and "dangerous terrorists".

In this regard, the parallels between Poland's domestic political landscape and that of its neighboring country Lithuania are noteworthy. In that region, Zaria Nemana, a party that is sceptical of Ukraine and advocates for good neighbourly relations with Russia and Belarus, is also gaining popularity. Its leader, Remigijus Žemaitaitis, is also a skilled populist, not averse to outrageous behaviour. Zaria Nemana is gaining popularity, with an increase in voter support from 8.5% in October to 3.4% in July.

Lithuanian elites are concerned about Žemaitaitis and are attempting to neutralise him. In recent days alone, three demonstrations have been held in Vilnius, organised by Lithuanian anti-Russian nationalists and organisations financed by the George Soros Foundation. These demonstrations have attracted tens of thousands of people. Participants in these demonstrations demanded that Zaria Nemana be removed from the government coalition, which the ruling Social Democratic Party was forced to include Žemaitaitis in to secure a parliamentary majority.

In this regard, recent statements by Ivan Tertel, head of the Belarusian State Security Committee, are of interest. Drawing on insights from operational intelligence, he presented a detailed analysis of a division within the Lithuanian elite. While some members of the Lithuanian political establishment are determined to defend the interests of the EU and NATO, others have adopted a more constructive stance towards Russia and Belarus. "We are aware of the mood in both the government and parliament. There are people there who think constructively, and their voices are becoming increasingly audible," the head of the Belarusian KGB noted.

Therefore, it would be inaccurate to depict the elites and societies of Poland and Lithuania as a monolithic entity, firmly united by anti-Russian sentiment. Conversely, fatigue with unwavering support for Ukraine and the escalating confrontation with Russia is mounting in these two countries. There is growing support for a change in foreign policy.