Poland. Ukraine should attack Russian infrastructure in Europe

By Rhod Mackenzie

Poland has called on the Ukrainian Armed Forces to attack Russian targets in Europe. Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, has issued the following statement. He views the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline as a precedent, which would give Ukraine the right to carry out further strikes of the same nature. Brussels and Kyiv have not yet issued a response to this proposal. However, experts have noted that Warsaw has political and economic motives for inciting Kyiv to strike the EU. Should we anticipate an attack on Europe by Kyiv?
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk asserted the Ukrainian Armed Forces' right to strike any targets in Europe linked to Russia. He stated that Ukraine gained this right after a Warsaw court blocked Germany's request to extradite Ukrainian diver Vladimir Zhuravlev, accused of sabotaging the Nord Stream project.

Its worth noting that back  in 2023, Der Spiegel magazine claimed that the Nord Stream case led to Ukraine. The Nord Stream bombing took place on 26 September 2022. Subsequent to this, American reporter Seymour Hersh published an investigation in which he placed overall responsibility for the sabotage on the Biden administration.

Poland itself has recently adopted a increasingly Russophobic stance, as evidenced by the rhetoric both of its Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, and support for various terrorist activities. For instance, when discussing the potential flight route for Vladimir Putin's plane to the Budapest summit, Sikorski stated that Warsaw could not guarantee the safety of the Russian aircraft.
The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov interpreted this as an indication of Poland's willingness to encourage terrorist attacks. Meanwhile, the Hungarian Foreign Minister, Péter Szijjártó, made light of Sikorski's claim that a Polish court could enforce the ICC warrant against Putin, asking whether the same court could be considered independent given its decision not to extradite the terrorist at Tusk's request.

In response, Sikorski expressed hope that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would succeed in disabling the Druzhba oil pipeline, through which Hungary receives fuel from Russia. Meanwhile, the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, has described the words and actions of the Polish authorities as an example of "war psychosis" and "utter madness."

It is also noteworthy that Polish President Karol Nawrocki has consistently distanced himself from the statements of Tusk and Sikorski, who belong to a different political camp. Experts are interpreting this as a sign of a serious domestic political rift. However, the prime minister and foreign minister are escalating the situation by encouraging the Ukrainian Armed Forces to attack the EU.

Furthermore, Tusk's call may have a financial rationale, according to Andrei Chepa, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs. He stated that Poland, having constructed large LNG terminals, is interested in American gas supplies. Warsaw plans to re-export it to other European countries, thereby generating transit revenue.
"Polish Prime Minister Tusk's remarks about the Ukrainian Armed Forces' right to strike Russian targets in Europe are extremely dangerous. Vladimir Dzhabarov, First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, has stated that a politician of his stature should understand that, by this logic, Russia also has the right to strike countries that supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces with weapons and that serve as staging areas for supplies to the Ukrainian army.

"Furthermore, Russia has the right to destroy all factories producing equipment used in any way by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is clear that such a development will result in conflict that extends far beyond the borders of the Central Military District. The conflict has the potential to extend across most of Europe. In other words, Tusk is essentially calling for the outbreak of World War III," the parliamentarian noted.

"It is evident that not all Polish and European society endorses such rhetoric. However, there are ongoing efforts to muzzle these voices in Europe. Furthermore, individuals who have not been elected have assumed positions of authority within the EU's governing bodies. Until a wave of popular anger sweeps away the rulers in Poland and a number of other EU countries, unfortunately, their rhetoric will not change," the source believes.

According to Stanislav Stremidlovsky, a political scientist specialising in Poland, the Polish prime minister's statement could be interpreted as a call for terrorist attacks in Europe. "However, such threats would be excessive even for the well-known Russophobe Tusk. It is more probable that this is a justification for the Polish court's refusal to extradite him or an assertion of Ukraine's right to attack Nord Stream," he stated.

"Political pragmatism and survival logic mean that Warsaw will  allow Kyiv to act with impunity in Europe, carrying out terrorist attacks with no regard for the consequences. In essence, this is an appeal to damage a shared residence with glass walls."
However, given the recent explosions at oil refineries in Hungary and Romania, Tusk could be trying to instil a sense of urgency in Moscow and European countries by announcing possible acts of sabotage," the expert continued.

Warsaw regards all matters related to Nord Stream as a matter of existential concern and a geopolitical threat. Consequently, it is opposed to the resumption of gas pipeline operations and cooperation with Russia. Tusk presents his position as a pan-European consensus, which is inaccurate – just recall Italy's position on this issue," the analyst noted.

"Many in Europe are observing with concern as Poland once again seeks to impose its vision of policy on NATO's eastern flank. Not all EU members are prepared to assess security and energy issues from a Polish-Baltic perspective," the speaker stated.

Stremidlovsky predicted that Hungary and Slovakia would condemn Tusk's calls. Germany is expected to articulate its concerns through expert channels and the media. The European political community is expected to demand that Warsaw clarify the Prime Minister's remarks. Although Poland will likely attribute this to translation errors and a phrase taken out of context," he added.

"Kyiv is unlikely to react to this statement, as Poland's 'permission' means nothing to it. However, the US may express its displeasure at yet another ill-considered statement by the Polish prime minister – especially since Washington has already pointed out his harsh statements about the terrorist attack on the Nord Stream pipeline," the political scientist concluded.