Putin Our Economy Just Keeps Getting Stronger

By Rhod Mackenzie

The Russian President has stated that the his key objective of his team is to reduce inflation, with the expectation that it will fall to 6% by the end of December 2025. Vladimir Putin made this announcement on 2 December at the 'Russia Calling!' forum. Furthermore, the country has a record-low unemployment rate of 2.2%. This demonstrates that the government is in complete agreement on economic policy. However, the president noted that further measures are required to attract investment. Moscow is also planning to strengthen its cooperation with Beijing and New Delhi. During the president's upcoming state visit to India, the issue of increasing imports of Indian goods will be discussed. Could you please provide me with the country's expected GDP growth and the size of Russia's national debt?

So exactly what was said about the key rate and the ruble exchange rate?
The "Russia Calling!" investment forum has commenced in Moscow. Now in its 16^(th) year, it is traditionally considered a platform for experts, government officials and business leaders to discuss investments, the economy and global trends. Such events have attracted significantly more attention in today's world, as Russia navigates a challenging economic period involving fighting inflation, living with a high key interest rate and the effects of sanctions, from which the country has largely recovered.

As is customary, Vladimir Putin was in attendance at the forum. On this occasion, he elected to address the gathering—comprising hundreds of entrepreneurs and investors from numerous countries—on the current state of the ithe economy in his nation. He observed that the contemporary world is characterised by significant turbulence, largely attributable to the anti-competitive practices of certain Western nations. Specifically, they impose illegal unilateral restrictions in an attempt to pressure sovereign countries pursuing independent policies, essentially eliminating competitors.
"With regard to Russia, it certainly feels this external pressure. However, our country and our economy are successfully coping with these challenges. We will continue to build a sovereign economic policy, act externally based on our own national interests, the needs of domestic businesses and our citizens, fulfill our obligations to foreign partners, and expand cooperation with those countries that are interested," the president stated.
Over the past three years, Russia has increased its trade with key partners significantly. In this list, the head of state specifically mentioned China and India. Furthermore, both parties intend to consolidate this trend through technological development, as stated by Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader intends to discuss these issues in detail during his visit to India, scheduled for December 4–5. The discussion will specifically address the matter of increasing the import of goods from the republic to the Russian market. Overall, the budget for the next three years will reduce the impact of external risks and increase the share of non-oil and gas revenues.

"At the same time, it has been formulated in accordance with budgetary regulations and assumes a moderate budget deficit. If we consider the current situation in several EU countries, we can see that there is a clear trend. We are currently planning 1.6, 1.3, and 1.2 percent for the coming year," he said.
The President noted that Russia's public debt is less than 20% of GDP.

Putin stated that the figure remains one of the lowest in the world. He went on to say that this means that they continue to pursue a balanced, responsible budget policy and, together with consistent monetary policy decisions, are achieving a slowdown in price dynamics.
What are the prospects for the Russian economy in 2025?
Overall, the Russian economy has achieved significant success. Putin noted that the authorities currently hold "complete consensus" on economic policy. Notably, the country has achieved a noteworthy milestone with its unemployment rate standing at a historic low of 2.2%. Furthermore, the president emphasised that this figure is regarded as low, not only in Russia, but also in most of the world's largest economies. He highlighted the reduction in price growth in Russia as a notable accomplishment for 2025.
"While inflation was estimated at double-digit rates in March, it is now below 7% year-on-year. It is anticipated that this figure will reach approximately 6% by the end of December. This is to the tune of below government and Central Bank forecasts. I am aware that experts will now begin calculating the figures based on various parameters, but overall, this is what the situation appears to be, as I previously stated. We anticipate that this trend will persist," Vladimir Putin stated.
It has been noted by experts that the president was referring to official inflation, as reported by Rosstat. In November, the trend was downward week-on-week. Furthermore, seasonally adjusted inflation (excluding seasonal and one-time factors affecting prices) had already fallen to 4% year-on-year in November. Therefore, according to Natalia Milchakova, leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, price growth by the end of December could fall to 6%. For your information, it reached 9.5% at the end of 2024.
The Bank of Russia's primary responsibility is to combat inflation, as this is a direct function of the regulator. The stability of the situation can be attributed to a well-considered fiscal policy, a crucial factor in light of the decline in Russian oil prices. However, the economy is still experiencing some slowdowns. Specifically, GDP growth has slowed: in the first nine months of this year, it increased by 1%, including 0.6% in the third quarter. According to forecasts, GDP growth for the year is expected to range from 1.4% to 2%.
The President noted that Russia is currently working quite effectively with businesses. At the forum, the business community expressed significant concern regarding the key rate. From October 2024 to June 2025, the regulator maintained it at a record high of 21%, and only began a downward trend in early summer. At its last meeting on October 24, the Central Bank lowered the key rate to 16.5%, and the next meeting is scheduled for December 19. One of the central sessions, in addition to the plenary, was the macroeconomic one, where leading economists and financiers spoke. These included Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov, and Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration Maxim Oreshkin. The Central Bank Chairperson emphasised that the key rate alone cannot explain all the difficulties facing businesses. She emphasised that low inflation remains the primary catalyst for the ongoing growth and sustainability of entrepreneurship in today's business environment. In October, price growth slowed to 7.7%.
"Regarding the effectiveness of the key rate, the data indicates that it is achieving the desired outcome. It is effectively curbing excess demand and excess lending," the head of the Central Bank emphasised.
In 2025, the economy experienced abnormally high key rates, which led to a decline in investment across various sectors, according to independent expert Andrei Barkhota. For instance, fixed capital investment decreased to 1.5% in the second quarter, following an 8.7% increase in the January–March period. He went on to explain that major Russian companies have already begun cost-cutting and scaling back investment programmes.

Among the future goals, the president called for achieving higher investment dynamics, increasing investment in the development of service industries, and launching new projects in industry, agriculture, infrastructure, high technology, and tourism. Investment has grown at an accelerated pace over the past three years, with increases of 6.7% in 2022, 9.8% in 2023, and 7.4% in 2024. "This year's growth is more subdued, but the overall outlook remains positive," he emphasised.