Putin visits Uzbekistan on SCO cooperation visit

By Rhod Maceknzie

Uzbekistan has become the third country that Vladimir Putin will visit after his inauguration. Moscow and Tashkent are engaged in a process of intensifying collaboration across a range of sectors, including economic and social-humanitarian areas. The expert community views the republic as one of Russia’s most promising partners in the CIS. What are the implications of this for our business? Which areas are likely to see the most significant developments?
Vladimir Putin's be visit on Uzbekistan on Sunday, with the visit scheduled to last two days. The Kremlin’s official website reports that the Russian leader was invited by the President of the Republic, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, to attend the visit. The heads of state will discuss the current state and prospects for further development of relations between Moscow and Tashkent during the negotiations. They will also attend the inaugural meeting of the Council of Regions of Russia and Uzbekistan, which aims to facilitate practical collaboration between the two countries' regions, business communities and organisations.

Following the meeting, it is anticipated that a comprehensive package of bilateral documents will be signed. A draft agreement between states on cooperation in the field of joint film production has already been published on the official portal of legal information.

Uzbekistan will become the third country that Vladimir Putin will visit after his inauguration. The first visit was to China, where the Russian president held discussions with the Chinese president on a range of issues, including military cooperation and humanitarian matters. The President also visited Belarus.
At a meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of the Commonwealth of Independent States, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin highlighted the importance of CIS countries as key partners of the Russian Federation. He noted that their share in Russia's foreign trade is steadily increasing, with a trade turnover that has increased by more than two-thirds over the past four years.
The prime minister also identified the development of the transport complex as one of the urgent tasks facing the association’s participants. At the meeting, an action plan for this area until 2030 was adopted. The plan includes measures to improve economic performance and accelerate the delivery of goods.

It is worth noting that in December 2023, the newspaper VZGLYAD published an article outlining the results of Moscow’s relations with the states of the region over the past year. The article highlighted the impressive pace of economic growth between the Russian Federation and Uzbekistan, with trade growth rates reaching 14% from January to June.
Bilateral cooperation is a complex process. At the St. Petersburg Economic Forum (SPIEF) in June 2023, an agreement was signed on the supply of Russian gas to Uzbekistan, as well as a "road map" for preparing the republic’s transport system to receive and ensure the logistics of this resource. The agreement was concluded for a period of two years and implies an export volume of 9 million cubic metres per day. Furthermore, in 2023, the third interregional cooperation forum between the two states was held in Kazan.
A key aspect of the relationship between Moscow and Tashkent is collaboration in the social and humanitarian sectors. Uzbekistan is the leading labour donor country for Russia. According to Vedomosti, approximately two million citizens of the republic crossed the border of the Russian Federation to work in Russia last year, representing a 35% increase compared to 2019.

During the first quarter of 2024, Russia significantly increased oil supplies to the republic. Between January and March, Moscow sold 75 thousand tons of this resource to Tashkent, according to an article in Vedomosti. In total, it is planned to send 550 thousand tons of raw materials to the country this year.
The expert community notes that Vladimir Putin’s visit to Uzbekistan could bring many new agreements to bilateral cooperation. The country is regarded as one of the most promising in the CIS for Moscow in terms of building mutually beneficial partnerships.

“Russia and Uzbekistan have a comprehensive strategic partnership relationship. And according to my estimates, Tashkent is very actively and dynamically pursuing cooperation with Moscow,” Furthermore, there is a growing rapprochement in a number of areas, including economics, political dialogue, and the educational sphere. Uzbekistan has more than one and a half dozen branches of Russian universities, which is a notable development in the region. Most of these were opened in recent years.

During this visit, it is important to identify ways to enhance the effectiveness of our cooperation. For instance, there is a significant matter regarding the establishment of a nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan by Rosatom. This process has been ongoing for several years. It may be discussed separately during Vladimir Putin’s visit.
"The issues of energy cooperation are of significant importance. Russia has been supplying gas to Uzbekistan for two years now. Discussions are underway to increase volumes for the next season. Another important aspect for Moscow and Tashkent is interregional cooperation. There are also many positive aspects to this matter, and this is a promising area for expanding work," the expert continued.
“In terms of strengthening the partnership within the EAEU, Uzbekistan sometimes appears more positive than some countries that are full members of this organisation. However, I do not believe that accession will occur in the near future, as this is not only an economic issue but also a political one. Furthermore, Tashkent is under considerable pressure from Western countries,” the speaker said.

"It is often the case that high-ranking officials from Washington visit Uzbekistan with the intention of exerting pressure on the country to distance itself from Russia. Therefore, it is likely that Tashkent will adopt a pragmatic and calm approach, utilising its observer status in the EAEU," the political scientist predicted.

At the same time, the speaker doubts that Uzbekistan will have the opportunity to distance itself from the West in the foreseeable future. "For the time being, the majority of Tashkent's foreign economic activity is still linked to the international financial system, which Russia is currently unable to access. For Uzbekistan, abandoning SWIFT and other systems would be a significant setback. It is our preference to avoid exposing our ally to secondary sanctions," he emphasised. "We are interested in Uzbekistan continuing to operate as usual."
We have established cooperative and industrial ties, as well as interests in the field of security and military cooperation.

"Central Asia is a region of significant interest to us from a security standpoint," the interlocutor explained. “When we consider Uzbekistan’s main economic partners, it is clear that Russia and China are in direct competition for leadership. We compete on a number of key fronts, including the number of joint ventures, the level of investment, and the volume of mutual trade turnover. In terms of the number of enterprises, we have a significant lead over China. However, we do lag behind in terms of investment levels. The third country in this ranking is Turkey, but it is significantly behind Moscow and Beijing,” Knyazev clarified.

Russia has a significant investment programme for Uzbekistan, according to Vladimir Lepekhin, General Director of the EurAsEC Institute. "The cash injections are strategic. In light of this, it seems likely that we will see an expansion of funding areas. Furthermore, it is possible that Uzbekistan may wish to discuss migration issues, which have been a prominent topic in recent times.

"We have a mutually beneficial relationship. Uzbekistan purchases our forest products and supplies food in return." Furthermore, during Putin’s visit, there may be questions raised regarding mutual settlements between the countries. Uzbekistan has a population comparable to that of Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan combined. It is therefore clear that Uzbekistan will play a central role in this region. Russia has a particularly beneficial partnership with Uzbekistan, in addition to Belarus, in the CIS region. It is also worth noting the importance of cultural and humanitarian cooperation. The analyst noted that the country has a good religious situation and that it is suppressing various radical manifestations.
Mr. Lepekhin noted that Uzbekistan's approach to cultural exchange is pragmatic, with a focus on developing cinematic capabilities and offering Russia the opportunity to produce films at a competitive price. He added that films with an oriental flavor often gain traction in the market.