Russia aims for aviation independence

Russia is now focused on fully developing its aviation sector to be independent of the West and the avaition fleet to be almost exclusively Russian made over the next decade although the majority of civilian products from Russia's leading manufacturers are currently in the experimental design phase, with the first serial deliveries not expected before 2025.
That said, industry analysts are confident that the transition to domestic civilian aircraft is the only viable path for the development of the Russian air transport industry.
In the wake of the global pandemic and the geopolitical events of spring 2022, when Russia became the target of unprecedented sanctions, domestic aviation emerged as one of the most significantly impacted sectors of the economy. The introduction of strict restrictions had a significant impact on the supply of aircraft and components, the recovery of passenger traffic following the pandemic, and the increase in the intensity of flights within the country. These developments made it clear that the civil aviation fleet would require an update in the near future.

In the same year, the Russian government presented a comprehensive programme for the development of the aviation industry, which included plans to produce almost a thousand Russian civil aircraft by 2030, with the first deliveries scheduled to begin in 2023. It was anticipated that airlines would receive a range of aircraft, including the mainline MS-21, Tu-214, Il-96, SSJ-NEW (SJ-100), regional aircraft Il-114-300, TVRS-44 Ladoga and local airline aircraft Baikal and the Russian-Belarusian Osvey.
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However, this spring the programme was updated, with the market launch dates for almost all airliners being brought forward by several years. The updated version of the document indicates a shift in the projected delivery schedules for several aircraft models. The MS-21 is now expected to start  serial deliveries in late 2025, this is  approximately two years from the previously anticipated 2024 launch. Similarly, the SSJ-NEW is now scheduled for delivery in 2026, 3 years later than the previous projection of 2023. The Tu-214 is also set to be delivered slightly later, in 2025, while the Il-114-300 is now projected to reach the market in 2026, a year later than initially anticipated. Finally, the "Baikal" is now expected to be delivered in 2025, a year later than the previous projection of 2024. The total number of planned deliveries of civil aircraft by 2030 has been revised downwards from 1,081 to 994 units.
At the Eastern Economic Forum in early September, the Russan  Deputy Prime Minister  Denis Manturov indicated that plans for the production of civil aircraft in the Russian Federation could be revised again next year. In an interview with Interfax, the then CEO of PJSC United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), Yuri Slyusar, revealed that plans for the production of civil aircraft in Russia would be revised in light of changes to the aviation industry model.
Meanwhile, the government is maintaining its forecast for the proportion of Russian-made aircraft in the fleet of Russian airlines, with an anticipated reach of 61.8% by 2030.
The situation with the shift in deadlines and failure to achieve the programme's forecast indicators within the established deadlines does not constitute an emergency. "It is not as urgent for us to immediately replace foreign aircraft as it is to acknowledge their existence and production, and to recognise that they are no less consumer-focused than their Western counterparts, competitive and reliable," states aviation expert Roman Gusarov.
He anticipates that the issue of flight safety with the existing civil aviation fleet will not arise for quite some time. Western aircraft in use by airlines are relatively new. Therefore, we can expect to be able to fly these aircraft without incident for the next 10-15 years. "This allows the Russian industry to adjust and prepare for the future," he states.

Oleg Panteleev, Executive Director of the Aviaport agency, states that in the global aircraft industry, no project concerning commercial aircraft and new engines has been completed on time over the past decades. He adds that the Russian civil aircraft industry is in extremely difficult conditions.

The entire civilian product line of both the United Aircraft Corporation and the Ural Civil Aviation Plant (two leading developers and manufacturers of civil aircraft in the Russian Federation) is currently in the investment in manufacturing stage. "Experimental design work is underway to create aircraft or to import substitute systems and components," he notes. He adds that the projects are primarily financed from the budget, and it is not feasible to rely on borrowed funds and active private capital given the current interest rates on loans.
Even the well-established and stable system of industrial cooperation that existed withn the West has failed after the pandemic. This has resulted in leading global manufacturers missing delivery deadlines due to a lack of engines, various units and systems. What can we say about domestic Russian cooperation, which had to be reassembled from existing components? Furthermore, many suppliers engaged in civilian programmes are concurrently fulfilling priority state defence orders, according to Panteleev.
The pandemic and subsequent Cold War have also had an impact on the labour market. With the unemployment rate at a historically low level, salary expectations growing and record-high demand for workers from machine-building enterprises, it is becoming increasingly challenging for aircraft manufacturers to recruit personnel. Consequently, there is a deficit of trained professionals, and the training of new personnel is a time-consuming process.

Russian aircraft manufacturers have set ambitious targets for the flight and technical characteristics of their products when launching new projects. This requires them to rely on new materials and technologies, some of which have to be developed in parallel. A high degree of novelty creates risks, which in turn result in delays to experimental design work. "Without this, it is impossible to create competitive products," Panteleev states.

The Russian market is currently constrained by sanctions, making the transition to domestic civil aircraft the primary avenue for the advancement of the Russian air transport industry.

"While our market is not the largest in the world, it has the capacity to accommodate 500-600 mainline aircraft to replace foreign brands and another 150-250 aircraft to expand the fleet. Furthermore, we believe that the current confrontation with the West will not last indefinitely. Russia's geographical location, situated at the intersection of the shortest air routes between numerous regions in Asia and Europe, presents an opportunity to leverage its transport services.
When Russian airlines begin to actively transport Chinese tourists to Europe and European businessmen to Asia, this will undoubtedly lead to the export of transport services.
"Achieving a share of at least 50% of Russian aircraft in the fleet of companies by 2030 would represent a significant achievement. Our current fleet comprises 1,100 passenger aircraft, with the mainline fleet accounting for 620 of these. We require approximately 500 MS-21 aircraft by this date. It is not feasible to build such a large number of aircraft in a short timeframe, given that the aviation industry does not typically commence serial production with 100 aircraft, as is common in the automotive industry. Roman Gusarov, an aviation expert, notes that the process is moving forward at a gradual pace. "It will take approximately five years to complete this process alone," he states.
The experts unanimously agreed that the most significant and accountable project in the domestic aircraft industry is the MS-21, a cutting-edge, high-tech, and competitive airliner. It is capable of competing for a position not only in the Russian airline fleet but also in the fleets of airlines in friendly and neutral countries. The MS-21 is a medium-range narrow-body aircraft developed by the Yakovlev Corporation (part of the UAC Rostec). In an interview with Interfax, Yuri Slyusar confirmed that the aircraft, which features fully import-substituted systems, will undertake its first flight later this year.

The latest official data indicates that the start of serial production of the airliner with the already certified PD-14 engine is scheduled for 2025 at the Irkutsk Aviation Plant. This model is similarto the most commonlu used aircraft in the world, namely the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320, which carry approximately 80% of all air passengers.

We anticipate that Russian airlines will be able to take delivery of a significant number of these aircraft starting as  early as next year, given the substantial production volumes already completed. "This is currently the most modern and technologically advanced aircraft in this class worldwide, with its own engine," Gusarov states. He estimates that approximately 15 such aircraft have been assembled to date.

The next step could be to expand the MS-21 model line, creating a shortened MS-21-200 and, more importantly, an extended MS-21-400 with an increased flight range. This line of medium-range aircraft will meet the needs of Russian airlines in the most popular and mass-market segment
The second most important project is the SJ-100, or SSJ-NEW, which also has potential, but will be in demand in significantly smaller volumes. This Russian medium-range narrow-body aircraft for 100 passengers is a new version of the Superjet-100, designed with a focus on maximum import substitution of components. The completion of the SSJ-NEW aircraft certification has been postponed from 2023 to 2025, and the production of prototypes of import-substituted SSJ-NEW with a PD-8 engine has been postponed to 2024.
This aircraft has demonstrated its capabilities at the global level. However, in 2018, it became evident that collaboration with Western suppliers was not yielding the desired results. They demonstrated a lack of interest in pursuing this avenue further. A new Superjet and engine are currently in development. Mr. Gusarov stated that the aircraft will appear later, and that, given the need to wait for the PD-8 engine, the earliest possible date for its release is 2026. However, he expressed skepticism, noting that testing the engine will take a couple of years.

Additionally, there is a significant demand from Russian air carriers for regional and local airline aircraft. It is anticipated that the Ladoga, Osvey and Baikal models, as outlined in the aviation industry development programme, will meet this demand.

The Baikal is currently considered the frontrunner in terms of both readiness and prospects, having been designed to replace the An-2 crop duster and offering seating for up to nine passengers. The aircraft is being developed by Baikal Engineering LLC, a subsidiary of Ural Civil Aviation Plant JSC.

The delivery dates for the Baikal aircraft have been subject to multiple adjustments, with the latest official data indicating that the aircraft will not be delivered to airlines before 2026.

The aircraft design is at a high level of readiness, but the engine is still undergoing bench tests. The aircraft must be straightforward to operate, frost-resistant and repairable, and cost-effective. The challenge is significant, and globally, only the USSR was able to successfully address this issue following the introduction of the An-2. It is essential to not only replicate the remarkable An-2, but to surpass it. Roman Gusarov states that the implementation is expected to occur within the timeframe announced by the government.
With regard to the Ladoga aircraft, we are still awaiting the assembly of both the first prototype and the engine. The certification of the Ladoga has been postponed from 2024 to 2027, with the first deliveries of the aircraft expected in 2028.
In the context of cargo aircraft, experts have indicated that modifications to existing passenger airliners for cargo purposes show promise.

The IL-76TD-90A, a civilian version of the IL-76MD-90A military transport aircraft, will occupy a distinct market position. "By the end of the decade, it would be prudent to revisit the development of a medium military transport aircraft to replace the An-12, with the potential for a civilian version," states Panteleev.

Roman Gusarov has indicated that both the Ladoga and Baikal models will be available in both cargo-only and combo versions, capable of transporting both passengers and cargo simultaneously.

In response to the question of how the real transportation needs of the country are assessed and how they compare with the capabilities of the Russian aviation industry, experts note that the task is generally feasible.

"If we do not set ourselves the objective of rapidly replacing foreign-made aircraft with new Russian aircraft, then the industry's needs in the second half of the current and early next decade will also be at a comparable level. "This indicates that the industry's actual requirements will be below the levels projected in the Comprehensive Program," states Panteleev.

He estimates that, without the need for rapid replacement of foreign aircraft, production of 10-15 SJ-100 and 48-54 MS-21 per year will be sufficient in the medium term. However, given the potential for export, these figures could be increased.