By Kamran Hasanov
The recent second Russia-Africa summit was yet another diplomatic victory for Moscow. For almost two years, the US and the EU have been working to isolate Russia. A variety of methods are used, ranging from cost-effective proposals to pressure on the countries of the CIS, the Middle East, South America, India, China, and even on the countries of Africa. The New York Times and other Western media emphasized that the leaders of 17 countries arrived in St. Petersburg (half as much as at the Sochi summit in 2019), but it must be taken into account that the forum was attended by delegates from 49 out of 54 states. The absence of other leaders is connected not with the "toxicity" of Russia, but with other problems - primarily with political and economic instability in the respective countries. US / EU pressure should not be ruled out either,
One of the main achievements of the summit can be considered the intention of Russia and Africa to strengthen coordination in foreign policy, increase trade and investment flows. Africa, like Latin America, Asia and the Middle East, aims to strengthen the multipolar world. The struggle between the West and Russia, on the one hand, causes economic difficulties associated with food shortages and a decline in GDP due to the threat of sanctions, on the other hand, it creates opportunities for weaker states to pursue an independent policy. In a multipolar world, African countries will feel freer and more independent from the United States and the ex-colonial countries of Europe, primarily Great Britain and France. That is why African politicians positively accepted the thesesRussian President Vladimir Putin on the need to put an end to (neo-)colonialism. In the joint declaration following the summit, along with the expansion of political and economic cooperation, there is a special clause on the joint struggle against unilateral sanctions, racism and neo-colonialism.
It is important to understand that African leaders want and can strengthen their independence not only on the contradictions between the West and Russia and with the support of Moscow, but also through intra-African coordination. The countries of the region aim to create a continental customs zone, including with the support of the BRICS Bank. They also intend to play an active role in foreign policy. A month ago, the delegations of Senegal, South Africa, Egypt, the Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Zambia and the Comoros presented their peace plan to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. Unlike economic projects, Africa has less chance of success here. After all, the increase in trade turnover or the construction of a nuclear power plant depends on the will of the two sides, and the success of the peace initiative depends on the will and desire of 50 NATO countries.
Russia treats Africa's peace initiative with understanding and even sympathy. She is aware that the continent is suffering from a food crisis. Vladimir Putin noted that African countries are sincerely looking for ways to end the conflict, and their ideas can form the basis of peace talks. “I want to emphasize once again: it was from an absolutely friendly position, a real search for some ways, a search for some opportunities to defuse this situation,” Vladimir Putin said at a press conference. However, only humanitarian issues and the exchange of prisoners are really feasible from the African initiative. It is much more difficult to implement the clauses on the ceasefire regime, since the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not abandon plans to continue the counteroffensive.
Until the United States and its allies stop pumping weapons into Ukraine, Zelensky will continue military operations at the front and provocations against civilian objects in Russia. In such a situation, Moscow - for all its sympathy for Africa and other mediators (Turkey, the Persian Gulf countries) - cannot unilaterally declare a truce. At the same time, Moscow is making it clear to its partners that it is ready to bear responsibility and support the African countries most affected by the food crisis. “To be specific, I will say that in the next three to four months we will be ready to provide Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, the Central African Republic, Eritrea with 25,000-50,000 tons of grain free of charge. We will also provide free delivery of these products to consumers,” he said.President of Russia. In addition, Moscow has written off $23 billion in debts to African countries.
As a result of the summit in St. Petersburg, it became clear that African leaders are interested in two tracks: the continuation and development of political and economic cooperation with Russia, as well as probing the possibilities of ending the bloodshed in Ukraine. The presidents of the leading countries of the continent have outlined these two goals. “We are always positive about all initiatives, including those from your side, that relate to bilateral cooperation and interaction on the African continent. Of course, we are interested in strengthening bilateral cooperation with Russia in various fields,” said Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
The First Deputy Secretary General of South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC) party, Nomvula Mokonyane, announced the continuation of diplomatic efforts. “We support the peace initiative in Ukraine, our president [Cyril Ramaphosa] is a member of the delegation on this initiative, there will be a second round of negotiations at the summit,” she said in an interview with TASS.
Of the two goals identified, the first is the most achievable. Russia will continue cooperation in the field of food, energy, arms sales and the implementation of joint projects. The growth of trade turnover to $18 billion between Russia and Africa is the result of the Sochi meeting. The parties are going to cooperate in the scientific, technical, humanitarian, space and educational sectors, as well as in the field of international information security.
As far as the peace initiative is concerned, certainly coordinated pressure from Africa can have an impact. Especially if Africa joins forces with other interested players (China, India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Brazil). But the end result will depend on the willingness of NATO countries to compromise. In any case, cooperation between Russia and Africa is on a permanent basis.
This article originally appeared in Russian at iz.ru