Russia bets on gases,polymers and fertilisers

Its is expectced that the Global Energy landscape is likely to change and countries like Russia will have to adapt to the new circumstances so lets look at what is likely to occur
Well firstly  A Donald Trump presidency will introduce further uncertainty to international energy markets. The future US president has repeatedly stated that he intends to use lower commodity prices both to stimulate his own economy and as a tool to pressure oil-producing countries, including Russia.

Mr. Trump has two potential avenues for reducing prices: sanctions policy and the stimulation of oil and gas production in the USA. It seems reasonable to suppose that the partial lifting of American sanctions on Venezuela or Iran will result in the release of additional barrels and cubic metres of oil and gas, which, having flooded the market, will contribute to a reduction in prices. However, it is unclear whether these volumes will be sufficient to overcome the obstacles that OPEC+ has encountered. The expanded cartel continues to fulfil its obligations to limit production. However, it is also the case that some members of the organisation are experiencing fatigue as a result of the prolonged period of austerity.

An increase in hydrocarbon production in the US represents another effective mechanism for influencing the market. "We have the largest black gold reserves in the world." "Saudi Arabia and Russia are both surpassed in this regard." Mr. Trump made the statement shortly after declaring his victory in the election.
Indeed, the volume of raw materials produced in the US has exceeded both Russian and Saudi figures for certain periods of time. The shale revolution has enabled the US to transition from an importer to the largest exporter of hydrocarbons.
However, there are two potential issues with this tool: geology and pricing. A substantial portion of the largest shale deposits are currently undergoing a second phase of production, as evidenced by a decline in the volume of heavy fractions (oil) and an increase in the share of light fractions (gas). Drilling new wells at existing deposits can provide a short-term boost to production, but this may not be economically viable in the long term.

This gives rise to a second issue, namely the cost of production, which is considerably higher than that of Russia and Saudi Arabia. Given a price of $40 per barrel, it is unlikely that the US will produce more oil.
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This indicates that, despite the assertive rhetoric, the president-elect has limited time capacity to influence global energy markets. Another factor to consider is the current dynamics of global economic development, which is exerting the main pressure on prices. The slower-than-anticipated growth of the Chinese economy and the possibility of a new round of trade tensions between Beijing and Washington under Trump are contributing to a reduction in demand for raw materials. The European Union is already experiencing a recession, and the United States is not showing signs of recovery. Only stock markets are growing, not the economy.

The World Bank has forecast that global commodity prices may fall to five-year lows in 2025. Based on the forecast, the average oil price in 2024 is expected to be $80 per barrel, which is projected to decline to $73 in 2025. Given the current discounts of the Russian Urals grade to Brent ($11–$13), prices for Russian oil may reach $60 per barrel, which is below the budget estimates. A reduction in prices will result in the National Welfare Fund being used, rather than additional revenue being generated. While this is a secure option in the medium term, it is not a favourable one in the long term.

The Russian Energy Strategy until 2050, recently revised by the Ministry of Energy and submitted to the government for consideration, provides the answers to the question of what Russia intends to do with these visible risks. In contrast to the more short-term approach of balancing the market and the current energy policy of Russia and its allies and partners, the strategy addresses the question of the long-term perspective and the role of the energy complex. In addition to the target and conservative scenarios, the revised strategy also contains a stress scenario for the industry. This scenario assumes, for example, a complete halt in oil exports by 2050.

The target scenario, which is also optimistic, does not assume a significant increase in oil production. From 2023 to 2050, production is expected to grow by slightly more than 1.5%, reaching 540 million tons. The inertial scenario anticipates a notable decline in production, with an estimated drop to 360 million tons, while the stress scenario projects a more pronounced reduction to 171 million tons. In the event of a stress scenario, Russia's oil exports would be reduced to zero, with all production processed domestically. In other words, even the target scenario indicates that oil production and export have reached a plateau, and the key question is how long this peak will remain in place.
The situation with gas is distinct. The total volume of gas produced in 2023 was 638 billion cubic metres. By 2030, the figure is projected to reach 853 billion cubic metres, with an estimated 1.107 trillion cubic metres by 2025. Concurrently, there is the potential for gas exports to increase by almost threefold, from 146 billion cubic metres to 438 billion. The primary growth in export potential will be driven by liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is set to surpass pipeline deliveries in terms of volume. The current ratio of exported gas is approximately 70% pipeline and 30% LNG. By 2050, this will have changed. It is anticipated that 55% of the gas will be delivered in liquefied form by sea transport.

The strategy places equal priority on the domestic market for both oil and gas. The primary focus is on oil and gas chemistry. Polymer production is set to become one of Russia's key competitive advantages, offering significant potential for growth and profitability. The gas, which has been processed into ethane and liquefied petroleum gases (LPG), will serve as a raw material for gas chemical production. The largest of these facilities is the Amur GCC, which is scheduled for completion by 2027. Construction of this facility is being undertaken by Sibur and China's Sinopec. The Amur GCC will produce basic polymers, namely polyethylene and polypropylene. We will also develop specialised polymers with the widest range of applications, including for use in construction (as a structural material complementing and replacing steel), medicine, and space developments.

Polymers have the potential to become a key driver for Russia's technological advancement, enabling the country to gain a competitive edge over other, more technologically advanced nations. This sector offers limitless potential for the application of scientific developments, indicating that the global polymer market is poised for significant growth. It is crucial for Russia to maintain its presence in the established and significant oil and gas markets. It is also crucial for the country to grasp the direction of technological advancement and how it can leverage its inherent competitive edge in this novel technological landscape.

Also speciaity gases like helium are very lucrative for sales on the world market and Russia is pursuing a strategy of accelerated helium production. In a few years, Russia's share of global helium production will grow from two percent to thirty percent.
Helium is used in the high-tech sector, where it is employed in the production of LCD displays, optical fibres, superconductors, medical equipment and breathing mixtures. Furthermore, helium is utilised in the nuclear industry for the production of components for mobile phones, tablets and space technologies.
Helium is an inert gas, meaning it does not react with other substances. This is a vital quality for manufacturers of electronic components, as it prevents other gases or contaminants from entering the microchip. Additionally, helium is highly effective at absorbing heat, making it an optimal choice for cooling applications.
Fertilisers
The geography of Russian fertilizer exports has undergone a shift in recent years due to sanctions pressure, though not to the extent that might have been expected. According to experts at RAPU, India and Brazil remain the largest sales markets. In 2022, supplies of Russian fertilisers to India increased by almost threefold to 4.3 million tons, primarily due to an expansion in the supply of phosphate fertilisers. In 2023, supplies to India increased by a further 1.5 times, with Russia's share in the total volume of Indian fertilizer imports reaching 25%. In 2023, export shipments to Brazil rebounded, with Russian exports to Brazil increasing by 17% by the end of the year, reaching 9.4 million tons in physical weight, according to data from RAPU.

According to experts, the total share of Asia in export supplies increased from 20% to 28% between 2021 and 2023.
RAPU forecasts that African countries will emerge as promising markets for Russian fertilisers, with a current 10% share. It is anticipated that this share will continue to grow. Russia currently supplies approximately 1.5 million tons of fertilizers to Africa on an annual basis. On the whole, exports of fertilisers are continuing to recover strongly from the decline that occurred in 2022. Based on this year's results, the association anticipates that growth will exceed that of 2021. Furthermore, RAPU estimates that by the end of last year, 75% of fertiliser exports were directed to markets in countries with a favourable stance towards Russia.
It is estimated that approximately 20 countries are significantly dependent on Russian supplies, including the largest importer of fertilisers in the world, Brazil.
China, which produces the majority of its own fertilisers, also requires Russian potassium supplies.
However, analysts have noted a notable shift in the structure of external supplies over the past couple of years, with potash fertilisers representing the only segment to experience a change. According to Nina Adamova, there has been a sevenfold decline in Russian potash fertiliser exports to the EU between 2021 and 2023. Concurrently, Russian and Belarusian exporters have been gaining ground on Canadian competitors in the Asian potash fertiliser market.

So Russia is betting on its exports of gases,polymers and fertilisers all of which there is a shortage of and more imporantly everybody around the world needs