By Rhod Mackenzie
The export of coal from Russia to India and China by 2030 could grow to 140 million tons. According to analysts, there is also the prospect of increasing supplies by 50-60 million tons in the direction of Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka.
At the end of 2022, coal exports from Russia decreased by 7.5%, to 210.9 million tons against the backdrop of a ban on supplies to the EU countries. As a result, China became the main buyer in the reporting period, which increased the import of solid fuel by 11.2%, to 59 million tons of coal. India bought 16.7 million tons of coal (+147.8% yoy).
Analysts believe that by 2030 supplies to China will increase to 100 million tons, while India will increase purchases of Russian solid fuel to 40 million tons. Earlier, the Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak made similar forecasts, saying that by 2030 the figures could grow by 1.5-2 times.
In addition, the prospects for growth in supplies to the states of Southeast Asia are noted against the backdrop of this year's results. Thus, in April 2023, coal exports to Sri Lanka tripled year-on-year, to 350 thousand tons. Analysts believe that the competitiveness of Russian fuel is due to its high calorific value compared to Indonesian and its low price compared to Australian coal.
At the same time, increasing exports to that level is impossible without solving the accumulated problems, including those of infrastructure. In particular, it is necessary to expand the capacity of the railways and develop the coal terminals and expand the Russian own bulk carrier fleet, including with the assistance of the state.