Russia, G7,G20 & BRICS what to expect from their agendas

In the global political scene there are three major groupings, the oldest is the G7,It was established at the behest of France in the aftermath of the first Middle East oil crisis in 1973/74. The inaugural Summit was convened in 1975 in Rambouillet, with the participation of six countries: France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States, Italy and Japan. It was supposed to represent the 7 largest economies in the World but that is no longer the case and its now just a US vassals club similar to NATO.I mean three of the World's top four economies by purchasing power parity which are China,India and Russia are not members so its hardly the World's Great Seven economies anymore.

Then there is  the G20  It was founded in 1999 following the Asian financial crisis as a forum for Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors to discuss global economic and financial issues.However it has now morphed into a major summit of the real major economies of the World particularly those in Asia like Indonesia and Vietnam and is not dominated by the US and its western useful idiots.    
The third major grouping is the BRICS The concept was established in 2006, leading to the incorporation of the grouping into Brazil, Russia, India and China's foreign policy. In 2011, at the Third Summit, South Africa became a member of the group, which adopted the acronym BRICS.Since Jan 2024 Egypt,Ethiopia,United Arab Emirates and Iran joined with Saudi Arabia having observer status, will from 2025 another 13 countries have partner status,so BRICS is now one of the most diverse groupings and gives a voice and interaction for the emerging economies of Asia and Africa .
Now all of these groups have an annual summit and one country has the rotating presidency so lets look at what is likely to happen this year and what are the agendas of each of the countries hosting the events.    
Lts start with the G7 presidency will be held by Canada, which is less aligned with Russia's interests compared to Italy last year.

What to Expect from Canada's G7 PresidencyThe G7 presidency will pass from Italy to Canada in 2025. The 51st summit, which will bring together the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Great Britain and the United States, will be held in the resort town of Kananaskis in Alberta. It is noteworthy that the 28th meeting of the group was held in Kananaskis in 2002, with Russia participating at that time. Following the reunification of Crimea with Russia in 2014, the "eight" became the "seven".
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The Canadian summit will be the first event in this format for three politicianse British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, his Japanese counterpart Shigeru Ishiba and future US President Donald Trump. However, the analysxpert community believes that the change in the composition of the G7 and its presidency is unlikely to significantly affect the content of the summit.
 It is not anticipated that Canada's presidency not will result in significant alterations to the G7 agenda, including on the international track. Given its informal nature as a forum for leading developed countries, the "seven" have seen a relative decline in their international influence in recent years, particularly with the emergence of the "big twenty", which, in addition to key developed countries, also includes prominent developing countries. This viewpoint is expressed by Evgeny Smirnov, a Doctor of Economics, Professor, and Head of the Department of World Economy and International Economic Relations at the State University of Management.
Ottawa's historical animus to Moscow is pretty well known , their recently departed minister of finance Chrstia Freeland was seriuosly Russaphpobic to the point she was the grand daughet of a real life WW2 Nazi and editor of a Third Reich newspaper which suggests that during Canada's G7 presidency, the Ukraine situation is likely to remain on the agenda. Freeland who resigned after a spat with uber Liberal Trudea was formerly the Financial Times correspondent in Moscow and our paths crossed frequently. I knicknamed her Seaweed as even the tide would not take her out and she hung out on the periphery with other Western women while we partied with the gorgeous Russian girls.

This will certainly impact financing. At the end of 2024, G7 leaders agreed on the details of providing Kiev with a $50 billion loan. Ukraine is expected to receive the full amount by the end of June 2025. Each country will allocate a loan in accordance with its economic capabilities, and repayment will be secured by interest on frozen Russian assets. Moscow has repeatedly denounced such proposals by Western countries as illegal. However, these proposals may be intended to be demonstrative, especially in the run-up to Donald Trump's return to the White House, where it is expected he will at least attempt to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. He has reiterated this stance on numerous occasions, both prior to and following his election as president. Trump has said he will discuss the settlement with Vladimir Putin, after the Russian leader said he would meet during a direct line on December 19.

This initiative is of a signal nature, raising the stakes in possible bargaining. It is also assumed that each member of the "seven" will make an independent contribution to the common fund for emergency loans. In three European countries — France, Italy and Germany — this may prove problematic due to the domestic political situation and the elite's doubts about the advisability of such steps, — notes Ivan Loshkarev, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
At the same time, it is improbable that inertial support for Ukraine will have a significant impact on the situation on the ground. According to Yevgeny Smirnov, Canada and other G7 countries are likely to abstain from solving Kiev's problems due to general fatigue and a large number of contradictions between G7 members regarding ways to resolve the conflict. While the US, Canada and Great Britain adopt a stance similar in regards to Russia's, some European countries, notably Germany and Italy, are pursuing a more balanced policy. Notably, Berlin has not yet approved the delivery or use of the long-range Taurus missiles. Japan, on the other hand, maintains a neutral stance based on its own legislation, although it has imposed sanctions on the Russian Federation and provided financial assistance to Kiev.

However, the G20 presidency will be transferred to a country that maintains a friendly relationship with Russia, marking the fourth consecutive year that this position has been held by a Russian-friendly nation. Ottawa has already announced that it will fight against circumvention of sanctions and the shadow fleet, and will also advocate for measures to ensure security at sea and around underwater infrastructure. Pretoria will align with Brazil's approach, focusing on food security and seeking to establish a consensus to resolve conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. The Izvestia article poses pertinent questions regarding the anticipated decisions of Canada and South Africa within the global context.

What can be expected from South Africa's G20 Presidency?Alongside the G7, there is another expanded format: the G20, in which Russia, unlike the "seven", continues to work fully. The presidency of the G20 has been rotated among countries friendly to Russia, with Indonesia hosting in 2022, India in 2023, and Brazil in 2024. This trend is expected to continue in 2025. Given South Africa's role as the host, it is improbable that an anti-Russian agenda will be adopted. Notably, South Africa is not only a Russia-friendly nation, but also a member of the BRICS group, along with India and Brazil. As Svetlana Lukash, the Russian Sherpa at the G20, emphasised at the end of last year, South Africa's priorities fully meet the interests of the Russian Federation.

The South African presidency calendar already includes more than 130 meetings in various formats. The foreign ministers are scheduled to meet twice in 2025: on 21–22 February in Johannesburg and in September during the 80th session of the UN General Assembly. The summit is scheduled for November.
South Africa has identified three key areas of work for itself: inclusive economic growth, food security, artificial intelligence and innovation for sustainable development. At the G20 summit in Brazil, the leader of the African state, Cyril Ramaphosa, articulated the country's motto for its presidency as "Promoting solidarity, equality and sustainable development." In light of the ongoing debt crisis on the continent, Pretoria will prioritise efforts to alleviate the debt burden.

In light of the escalating debt crisis in Africa and the volatility of global commodity markets, South Africa will advocate for the formulation of long-term, effective debt management strategies. These strategies aim to enhance the financial and economic sustainability of the least developed countries in Africa. Over the past decade, interest payments on debt in developing countries have increased by more than 60%, and in African countries by more than 130%. Such dynamics significantly limit opportunities for investment and economic growth, says Evgeny Smirnov.

Concurrently, South Africa will not be pursuing Brazil's proposal of a global 2% tax on the super-rich during its year as chair. The host country believes that the task currently faces enough obstacles.
Conversely, the search for solutions on Ukraine and the Middle East will be on the G20 agenda in 2025. South Africa has set itself the objective of achieving consensus on the most significant geopolitical issues and bringing them to the agenda for discussion at the G20 summit. However, it is likely that these discussions will take place without the personal participation of the Russian leader. In December 2024, Vincent Magwenya, official representative of the South African president, stated that South Africa had not yet been able to influence the International Criminal Court warrant against Vladimir Putin, which would allow an invitation to be extended to him for the G20 summit.
In June 2023, President Cyril Ramaphosa unveiled a ten-point joint peace plan for African countries. At that time, a delegation of representatives of regional states headed by the President of South Africa specially went to Russia and Ukraine. The initiative included a call to initiate peace talks as soon as possible, de-escalate on both sides, provide security guarantees to Russia and Ukraine, and provide humanitarian support to those affected by the military actions. However, significant time has elapsed, and contemporary initiatives have emerged, notably the proposal by China and Brazil.

The 2023 African Peace Initiative is already outdated, and South Africa understands this, so President Ramaphosa openly supported the six-point Chinese-Brazilian peace plan last September. In South Africa itself, various political forces advocate for the country's more active participation in the peace process, but they propose different ways of activating it, said Ivan Loshkarev.
According to the expert, the liberals of the Democratic Alliance party proposed condemning Russia and siding with the West, while representatives of the centre-left movements insist on supporting Moscow and condemning NATO expansion. Concurrently, the ruling African National Congress party is attempting to identify a compromise. Consequently, during South Africa's G20 presidency, the likelihood of a specific resolution to the Ukrainian crisis is minimal, with the proposals likely to be a combination of the African peace initiative and the Brazilian-Chinese plan, with adjustments for South Africa's domestic context regarding energy and food issues.
Onto the BRICS,it is noteworthy that Brazil considers the BRICS format to be increasingly aligned with that of the G20. The country's presdident say they will continue to advance its agenda, focusing on poverty alleviation, tax system reform, and the restructuring of international organisations. In addition, the Brazilian government is expected to work towards clarifying the status of 13 partner countries, as well as establishing a unified payment system, building on the Russian initiative.
For more details on Brazil as the host of BRICS do watch my video on the subject