Russia implements an energy pivot to the south

By Dmitry Skvortsov

The EU's refusal to purchase Russian electricity has become one of the most important points of the West's sanctions program against the economy of the country. However, the effect of this measure turned out to be the opposite: the sanctions stimulated the resumption of a whole series of projects aimed at exporting Russian electricity. True, in a completely different direction. This will bring Russia not only economic but also political dividends.
Russia is one of the world's largest producers of electricity, and for many decades our country has used this advantage by selling electricity to neighbors, mainly Western ones. Moreover, the construction of the Belarusian nuclear power plant and the Kaliningrad nuclear power plant (subsequently mothballed) began precisely with the expectation of exporting electricity, in particular to energy-deficient Poland and the Baltic countries.

These plans were violated by the confrontation between the West and Russia and the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions. However, in response, Russia has intensified electricity export projects in another direction - to the south. The planned construction of export transmission lines will connect Russia with its southern neighbors in the Caucasus, Central Asia and beyond.

By the end of 2023, a feasibility study for the Russia-Azerbaijan-Iran energy bridge should be developed. The negotiations on this subject were held at the end of July and completed a whole series of agreements that had been ongoing for many years.

The north of Iran is experiencing a shortage of electricity. And although the Islamic Republic has huge gas reserves and can theoretically provide electricity for itself, all the main deposits are located in the south of the country, and in practice it turns out to be easier to buy electricity from its neighbors.

Cooperation between Russia and Iran has especially intensified after February 2022. In 2023, Russia and Iran (as well as Azerbaijan) decided to accelerate the construction of a key 175-kilometer section of the Rasht-Astara railway, which will be the last link in the North-South transport corridor.

At the same time, a decision was made to speed up the construction of an energy bridge between Iran and Azerbaijan. Since the energy system of Azerbaijan is still synchronized with the Russian one, and the energy system of Iran is not, their interface will be provided by a DC link. Actually, today there are already two power transmission lines between Iran and Azerbaijan through direct current inserts, but their capacity cannot ensure serious supplies of electricity from Russia to Iran.

Russia - Georgia - Armenia - Iran

The second branch of the energy bridge Russia - Iran was supposed to pass to the west - through Georgia and Armenia. Moreover, with Armenia, Iran has not just an energy bridge: the energy system of Armenia is synchronized with the energy system of Iran.

But the need of the north of Iran for electricity is greater than the possibilities of Armenian energy generation. Therefore, since 2015, the possibility of transit deliveries of Russian electricity to Iran through Georgia and Armenia has been studied.

But the energy system of Georgia is synchronized with the Russian one. Therefore, to connect Armenia on the border with Georgia, it is also necessary to build DC inserts. There are technical problems here (the border between the two countries passes through the mountains), and financial ones (the insertion of direct current on the main power line is an expensive construction). Well, and the difficulties of coordinating such an international project with difficult relationships between some of the participants.

At the same time, Iran remains interested in building this energy bridge with an eye to extending power lines to its border with Iraq and beyond. This will help Iran to realize its economic projects in Northern Iraq (where Iran's influence is strong). And the "Azerbaijani" energy bridge will help electrify the Caspian and northern regions of Iran and help with the provision of electricity to Iranian projects in Afghanistan.

However, Iranian projects in Afghanistan may have another energy supply route.

Russia - Kazakhstan - United Energy System of Central Asia - Northern Afghanistan

Such a route for the transmission of electricity is, in principle, possible. But as a single project today it does not exist. Nevertheless, various options for the supply of electricity from Russia to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are being worked out.

The republics have already experienced rolling blackouts several times due to the overloading of power lines. The largest event happened on January 25, 2022, when Tashkent, Bishkek and a number of regions in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and South Kazakhstan were left without electricity. After that, Kyrgyzstan agreed with Russia on the purchase of 900 billion to 1.5 billion kilowatt-hours per year, and since April 2023, Inter RAO for the first time in history began supplying electricity through the power grids of Kazakhstan.

However, it seems that Kazakhstan also needs electricity supplies from Russia. The corresponding agreement with the Russian "Inter RAO" was signed in July this year.

The problem of Kazakhstan is that its energy system in Soviet times consisted of three independent parts. The energy system of Northern Kazakhstan is inextricably linked with the energy system of Russia and has sufficient generating capacity. The energy system of the western Caspian regions of Kazakhstan is also balanced and has good switching with the energy system of the Urals. But the energy system of South Kazakhstan is energy deficient. And this deficit has worsened in recent years.

The communication between the power systems of Northern and Southern Kazakhstan is carried out through power lines, the capacity of which is sufficient to cover peak flows. But when it becomes necessary to maintain the stability of the work of neighboring countries that have become energy deficient, these lines are loaded with transit. The additional contribution of peak loads in the power system of Kazakhstan has led to congestion and rolling blackouts. That is, to ensure the stability of Russian supplies, it is necessary either to build a separate power transmission line to Kyrgyzstan, or to increase the capacity of the inserts between the power systems of Northern and Southern Kazakhstan.

There is a field for the work of Russian companies. But there is another solution: to build a nuclear power plant in the narrowest place (the construction of which Kazakhstan is already negotiating). It could become a balancing element by redirecting the generated electricity, depending on the needs, to the north or to the south.

Well, and even more global scenario - the reconstruction of the entire unified system of Central Asia and its connection to the unified energy system of Russia. And in the south - synchronization with it of the electrical networks of Northern Afghanistan. Then it will be possible to talk about the return of Central Asia and Turkmenistan to the ECO.

For Russia, the construction of energy bridges to Iran is not only one of the manifestations of economic expansion, not only assistance in the development of an important strategic partner. The implementation of such projects will create mutual economic interests of the Transcaucasian states with Russia and Iran. And this will help to reduce regional tension and create the ground for the settlement of conflicts existing in the region.

As for cooperation in the energy sector of the countries of Central Asia, for Russia this is also a motive for reducing the tension that periodically arises in the region (often due to competition for the use of water resources or under the influence of unfriendly external forces). The states of Central Asia today face a dilemma: what should be their priority - agriculture or energy. The critical mode of operation of reservoirs for these countries and the volume (as well as the schedule) of electricity generation by hydroelectric power plants depend on the answer. However, this contradiction can be removed by stable Russian electricity exports.

Thus, Russia will become a guarantor of the stability and well-being of all states in the region and will strengthen its economic and political interests here. And this, in turn, will generally serve to strengthen the sovereignty of Russia.
This article originally appeared in Russian at iz.ru